changegonnacome

Interestingly some NYC metro folks I know........who have been simultaneously been renting/maintaining apartments in New York and Florida etc etc for the last couple of years as a result of COVID are seriously considering giving up one or the other and committing to one location.....wonder how many people out there right now are one bird occupying two nests and are exasperating/contributing to the rental shortage in New York/Sun Belt etc. Tightening financial conditions & negative wealth effects are working here.......I know one couple, heavily invested in a particular 'hot' stock and once we had the bear a couple of months ago very quickly jettisoned their NYC residence in response as they felt less wealthy cause their Shwaeb account balance went down. Its almost a perfect case study in tightening financial conditions, leading to negative wealth effects which results in a reduction in aggregate demand (in this case an empty NYC apartment was released)

Way OOM AAPL Puts March '23........stock practically back to ATH's, 30 P/E........juiciest M1 high volume products have been launched now Air, Pro 14...... 5G phone super-cycle kind of done with iPhone 12/13......5G hype is over and it was meh........end markets in Europe/China for new iPhone 14 are going to be very weak this winter.........think Apple has had a supercycle last two years across its phones/laptop portfolios triggered by M1/5G/WFH/Lockdowns/stimis.....going to have nightmare comps moving forward..October qtr possibly the last 'good one'........trading today at a ~3.8% FCF yield........then that damned discount rate is going to keep moving up!

Exactly, over time, when amateurs step into a competitive arena with professionals the outcome is inevitable....sometimes it just takes more time than you think for the advantage to churn through the amateur population.........stories of windfalls perpetrate the madness......but overtime you literally run out of people who haven't incurred serious losses such that they wont play 'the game' anymore. Who likes to lose, over and over again. This recent meme stock rally feels to me like the last flailing twitches of a kind of stock market mania that books will be written about.......we are in the midst of an EPIC bear market rally right now, old buy the dip habits die hard....there is still some but lessening healthy household balance sheets around & cheap capital...........the Casino players have still got chips in their pockets.............but Jay & the Fed for the rest of the year are going to strangle liquidity.....earnings are going to deteriorate....at the same time the discount rate is rising. Not a good recipe for index pricing & broad meme liquidity flows. The OP asked whether the world needs a market crash..........put another way the question is should young folks in US markets, yet to invest, be able to buy SPY in their 401k at level that might deliver an expected return in line with historical norms? Where that say 8-9% return is being delivered by EPS growth & dividends (not just multiple expansion & corporate tax cuts). If the answer is YES, then yeah SPY needs to come down by more than alot........given that multiple expansion literally cant go on forever as driver of returns (as it has for the last decade) and I've spoken ad nasuem in other threads how 2021 was quite clearly, IMO, peak % net margins for SPY. There will need to be a reset of index price levels downwards reflecting what I've just said on earnings/multiples to get future Johnny Jnr. into an SPY 401k investment where he can expect a CAGR of 8-9%.......and he can hope to reach his financial goals.

Off the top of my head: RVCapital Chuck Akre Greenlight Giverney Baupost Bronte Now lets differentiate between whether I think those managers are good or not...or worth following not gonna get into it......what I'm really pointing is that at least their 13F's are basis for gaining some insights to what they believe will do well over say 5 years.......they are thoughtful about what they own, they tend to own it in concentration and they dont churn the portfolio too much such that positions remain in their 13F over time.......but YOU have to figure out whether you think they are 'good' and whether you agree with their company choice.......the biggest mistake in 13F diving is buying into something based on a filing of a hot manager, doing little DD yourself....then the stock falls and the next 13F filing comes out & your guru has sold out of the position..........its a recipe for buying high and selling low IMO.

for sure but selling everything and leaving only that on the 13F filing day returns is kind of a laugh for him…..designed to do exactly what this thread is doing….get attention and get people talking. I assume also there’s an element of if things turn out as he’s predicted he can point back to a contemporaneous 13F filing but I think that’s kind of a nice bonus. This is a 13F played for laughs and folks should see it that way. when I saw it reported in financial media - I laughed out loud….he knew exactly what he was doing the 13F filing thing is a joke and anybody who clones them too closely wants their head examined. The only 13F’s worth paying attention too are from managers who adhere to and have track records of running relatively concentrated portfolios and holding positions long term. The most extreme of the opposite of this is David Tepper….if your following his 13F well you’ve officially lost the plot.

I have simple theory on Burry’s latest 13F filing….it’s a 13F played for laughs( and attention) using the imperfect filing date moment in time snapshot…..it’s kind of joke to him to liquidate his positions on the day previous to 13F reporting…. bar a prison stock for effect of course….there’s a message in there too clearly regarding his bearishness….which was previously expressed with puts that DID show up in previous 13F but are gone now….I’m sure he loaded all these bearish positions up again the very next day.

Totally get you on the no rational and no actionable info from some of these guys...its bear clickbait....whats the old joke with predictions if asked......give the level but never the timing or if you give the timing don't give a level. Listen I'll just hang it out there one last time........ my US market bear case is a simple reversion to the mean over the next 2-3 years that has been trouted around in 2010's to ill results (I ignored it then it wasnt compelling argument at all, the US was clearly in better shape than the rest of the world post-GFC)..........but if we go back in the US to mortgage rates (~6-7%) and inflation averaging ~3%+.....and we are genuinely short people such that labor starts winning against capital again (BLS data suggests thats the case) & maybe US governments have to dial up corporate tax to pay for all the old people (15% minimum is start of reversing Trump cuts I think)....well first (because of inflation & higher discounts rates) your market multiple reverts back to more average levels not 20x like we have today on SPY but closer to ~15x.......while profit margins (through corp. taxation & increased labor costs) get squeezed back to more historical levels (I maintain 2021/early 22 will be a cyclical record high for US corporate profit margins) so your E is contracting too .....and one amplifies the others cause its a ratio........ put em all together I think you could grind down over time to 2,900 - 3,100 on the SPY in the next 24-36 months and then build out from that base....or your just desperately range bound between 3000-4000 for years...result in aggregate is the same.......growth stocks get even more crushed ..........lsiten I don't a fuck about the indices, they are zero fun....& I do this for fun........but the issue for stock pickers in the US market making a journey from 4100 down to 2900....... is you pick good companies but you just get crushed by the beta no matter how better YOUR companys are versus the indices. Its tough sledding. I'm choosing to step more into markets where I think the beta moving forward is better....I like the wind at my back type thing, but I definitely don't want it at my front........& its why for the first time in a long time I've been grabbing my investing passport and going international stock picking. Your dollar goes a lot further & if I'm right-ish the beta won't be kicking you in the balls so aggressively & I'll have better results. Lets see....time will reveal all.

Hoax is a very strong word which suggests a hell of lot of certainty in a macro prediction which I'd suggest, given the complexity involved, folks stay a little more humble on it. Let's see 40 years of falling inflation & interest rates say the trend is your friend & you fellas are right.........but you know trends don't go on forever and at some point there's is a secular inflection point (interest rates move in big decade long cycles) and there's a reasonable macro case to say thats exactly where we are right now.......a global pandemic followed by unprecedented FISCAL transfers (unlike money printing bank reserves in GFC) and the first war in Europe in decades + ramping up of a real life Cold War 2.0 with China all thrown in the pot.........these are the stuff secular shifts are made off. The pandemic though is the doozy....it really really has changed mindsets and approachs in every company I speak too, how could it not. I didnt listen to Hussman and his elk for the last decade and made plenty of money not doing so......I am not a perma-bear and I'm not even advocating for going all in on the inflation & fed funds @ 6% trade........I'm not, I'm hedging my bets.........but I look around and I think about the big picture drivers and I try to polk holes in the secular shift talk on higher rates/inflation.......and I'm finding it hard to polk holes in it and I'm usually pretty damn good at polking holes in things and when I cant........ i start wondering if there are any holes there at all! So when presented with something like that I try do sensible things that work in different macro versions of the world that seem possible/plausible...........while remaining FULLY invested....and where things will work out wether we transition to a new secular period of higher rates and higher inflation or not. Sure one will do better for me.....but the other will do just fine for my financial goals. Think on internet forums just given the format your always somehow labeled as vehemently for or against something. Macro forecasting is hard, almost impossible but sometimes a macro trend is screaming out at you so loud you'd be dumb to completely dismiss it and so you've got adjust a bit. I think this has real real merit in it and why I repeat it here ad nauseam for the benefit of whom ever might value a different opinion on the consensus doing the rounds right now..... which to be clear is "its going back to the 2010's, get on the bull train". The contrarian case isn't welcome and I get that > it to speaks to a fundamentally much more challenging investing climate for the next decade versus the last which is unpleasant to think about it.....but given its unpleasantness it's exactly why you should be thinking about it! Ignore it if you wish but marinate on it for a while before you dismiss.....be careful of ideas your so in a rush to dismiss. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain I think COBF participants are gonna do fine with higher inflation & higher rates....... as these conditions favor more value orientated strategies/shorter duration assets & actual 'jam today' cash flow type enterprises than whats been in vogue. But you know step back and these are some of the things below that just scream common sense to me and I find hard to ignore re:higher rates/inflation moving forward........which lets be clear is a minority contrarian opinion......inflation expectations & consensus as @matthew2129 say that we are going back 2.3% inflation & the Fed is gonna start cutting in early 2023......I'm saying based on my read that in THIS instance there's a better than descent chance that the consensus has got this DEAD wrong. You know frame this post or whatever and come back in 18 months and laugh at me but like think about the below drivers: Inflation Drivers: Deglobalization> inflationary Re-shoring/friend shoring > inflationary World/China/the West "short people", immigration hot button political issue in the West UK/USA/EU making sensible immigration solve short people impossible > inflationary Demand-Supply shift for Capital = structurally higher interest rates Higher inflation (as per above) = higher rates Degloblization/re-shoring of industry> potentially hugely capital intensive activity versus the previous capital light services economy we've had in the West for the last 20-30 years (Google et al)....... leading to increasing demand for capital to build these industries/factories up again (Chips act etc.) = higher rates Greening of the economy (Federal EV tax credit in recent 'Inflation reduction Act' with its demands for in USA-battery production is a hint at the future) > huge capital investments required here = higher demand for capital = higher rates Solar/Wind/Grid - unbelievably levels of capital to be deployed here = structurally higher rates Anyhow for better minds to ponder than me.........some might call the above a laundry list of another 'bear boy' who cried wolf.....but this cry I'm heeding which is rare for me I'v ignored similar for the last decade............so I'm heeding the call more than normal and adjusting my portfolio posture......I'm not going ALL in or out......I'm adjusting my portfolio posture........... MACRO is hard/impossible.......but there's something brewing call it a gut feeling or not but I'm positioning for it. I'll take a break on the interest rate/inflation threads for while....folks are getting sick of me and I'm getting sick of listening to myself..........the next few CPI prints are going to be filled with confirmation bias for those looking for inflation back to 2.3% narratives as energy/supply chain CPI base effects start rolling off......I dont propose to jump in on each thread cheering it lower (I will cheer it lower myself too, i hate inflation!) but lets see what happen when it gets down to 4.5% and STOPS moving down......well we aren't in Kansas anymore then I'll tell you. Chow for now inflation friends.......see you in 12 months time............but I will see you over on the investment ideas threads......where I'll be looking for short duration > low p/e companies with inflation linked pricing power > that can grow FCF streams ~5-6% sustainably & predictably even in a US printing 4.x% inflation & Fed Funds at 5% . We'll get an answer to our little inflation conundrum soon enough. I'll be watching with my lips sealed on it for a while, my lets call it hunch has been splashed across these pages enough for now. I'll haunt you no more.

True - I never underestimate the ability of people/societies to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. My point is/was that if you could choose a set of strategic cards to be dealt with as a country/economy in geopolitics........the USA has just about the best set of cards out there, hands down not even close.......now could the USA f-it up........for sure it could .....and maybe its in the process of doing so.....hard to know.....hit me up in 40 years and we'll see

You know Greg i've been clear that 9% forever is not my base case later this year or next......as I've said a billion times but will say one more time......energy/supply chain inflation data will start coming out of the numbers over the next two/three quarters due to base effects....irrefutable and clearly it will.............but what will be revealed will be late 4's - 5%'s underlying stubborn domestically produced, cant blame China/Russia, monetary inflation......you can see it in the non-farm payroll data, its right there and its happening right now even as energy prices deflate.......in a world where you can borrow very easily at 3.x% & inflation is running at ~5%..........the monetary math is still deeply deeply broken if thats the case and if it is your running a highly highly accommodative monetary regime in an overheating economy at likely what is way beyond its natural full employment rate......good things dont happen in that world and Fed will be forced to act aggressively ....but you know maybe the non-farm payroll data in response to energy/supply chain inflation data moderates super quickly....that is possible, lets see.

Perhaps - but it all flows from my little math equation which is kind of irrefutable in its conclusion which is borrowing to invest or borrowing to speculate (short stocks) or indeed borrowing to consume a fancy dinner/holiday/boat/bike/car..........is currently a no brainer, they're begging you do it........you'd be plain dumb not to do it.....get out there and spend the shit out of it the math says Whats the math > Inflation @ 9%.....credit lending at ~3%......negative ~6% real cost of money.........its the kind of real cost of capital one should see after a major economic shock that has decimated investment confidence in your economy and where the monetary authority desperately needs to coax folks out from the sidelines to participate in the economy again. Is that the current climate in the US?

I'd describe it more like this - its the moment in the casino, when you've lost all your money at the tables and decide to go back to your hotel room and call it quits.......& you head for the room elevators........but just out of the corner of your eye you see an ATM machine and think hang on a second........if I just take out what I lost and put it ALL on RED, I'll make it all back! Two thoughts on meme mania return..........It's the last gasp of the truly degenerate gamblers........and there' still lots of liquidity/cash lying around in checking accounts. For how much longer I wonder......the stock market is a wealth generating and destroying machine......and while the Fed will never come out and say it.......positive wealth effects work when the economy is on its knees, but negative wealth effects work as equally well an in economy thats overheating & needs cooling.

+++++ AMC, Bed, bath & beyond....memes stock going to the moon again today........4% cap retail.........is this what monetary tightening via stricter financial conditions looks like? Or does it look like excess liquidity is still in the system fueling the continuation of speculative investment? .......because in reality actual financial conditions are far from neutral and are actually still VERY accommodative relative to the actual inflation rate..........& that the correct posture for a person in a 9% inflationary economy where you can still borrow pretty easily at ~3.x% rates....... is to borrow as much as they can and put the borrowed cash into real assets yielding 4% like your retail unit........and then play the spread on the asset itself....while also playing the time value of money arb opportunity where your paying back the loan next year in future 6-9% depreciated dollars.....& where your real cost of capital inflation adjusted is something like negative 5% People are in for such a wake-up call in September when the Fed has to come out with another 0.75% hike & some very tough talk and guidance on the future direction of rates into 2023. See they have to break the math equation of what I've just described above to reduce aggregate demand. The math can change a number of ways via the inflation rate/interest rate/multiple on the asset but the equation I just described is highly STIMULATIVE and something you'd expect to see in an economy with 6% unemployment where the Fed is trying to resuscitate business investment....not a 9% inflationary economy with full employment & two job openings for every job seeker......its nuts.

For sure it does, completely agree the Americans, the Japanese……the CCP feeds Chinese society the constant hum of xenophobic diatribes through state media - but sometimes its useful for a regime to turn the volume up or down depending on their needs…..the Pelosi trip, in a different set of domestic circumstances, would have been dialed up to a 7……..this time they choose to dial the volume all the way up to 11……that tells you something very interesting about China domestically in 2022

Yep my read too - China has lots of problems going on right now...........an external enemy to direct attention to is a useful distraction.......I think the level of noise made around Pelosi visit should be seen not as a show of strength by the Chinese but rather a sign of internal domestic weaknesses bedeviling the Xi administration.

Correct….Jamie Dimon nailed it not so long ago in some speech I saw and I’ve never forgot and never will…..the USA has the best hand of cards ever dealt a nation ever. Period. .…..…..energy and food independent…the best economic system..….wonderfully friendly neighbors to the North (Canada) & South ( Mexico)……the big blue Pacific Ocean protecting to the West……the massive cold Atlantic Ocean to the East…you wanna talk about MOATS now that’s a maot!....the worlds best and most technologically advanced army and nuclear arsenal…….the best and brightest research universities and access to worlds best and brightest people…..the worlds reserve currency…..not terrible demographics…I could go on…..I literally laugh every time I hear someone peddling the impending end of US global dominance..…..especially the talk about China …take what I just listed above and apply that filter to China’s set of cards……..ok have you done that yet USA doom talkers and China pumpers!…..shut the F up and start singing the national anthem right now or get outa of here

I hope your right and I’m very very wrong…….I really do……I may have larger than usual short US stock exposure & an international long book in my investment account…..but I’m a USA salary resident cheerleader with my best earning years ahead of me..……big big big picture ‘Changegonnacome Inc’ is unbelievably long a thriving US economy. A 1970’s style stagflation, followed by a Volcker-esque recession is not good for my family or anybody I give a shit about. I hope I’ve got this very wrong but I’ve yet to see much disconfirming data based evidence that I am & it’s why I value your pushback…what you describe is exactly how I will be wrong…..so appreciate your strong views on the matter. Even if we fundamentally disagree.

Real world Oh yeah you've been able to discern, with certainty, what proportion of food price inflation were experiencing for example is simply a hydrocarbon & supply chain temp price issue? You've managed to untangle the wage inflation effects inside of all of that 9% inflation and are comfortable none of this inflation is related to wages feeding into prices domestically? That there exists zero pass through of increased wage costs to prices in as we spoke about low single digit margin businesses? This I admit is hard to untangle with certainty, its complex. I remain open to the possibility I'm wrong here its too hard to tell right now with supply chain disruptions, energy and wages going up as they have been. I suggest you keep a bit more of an open mind on the wage-price spiral thesis - the sign in the "real world" your looking for is a backdrop of oil @ $60 & no supply chain issues with 2-3% inflation then I'd suggest you declare victory on this. I'm remaining humble, on this particular piece of the inflation puzzle, until there is actual real world data stripped of oil/supply chain inflation distortions to see if wage-price inflation is occurring underneath.....nobody can be sure sure cause too many variables are moving at the same time. I have my theories you know them but they are just that theories. I cant point to real world data. In regards to the piece where there is really "real world" signs of a problem........its very much real and showing up in the Bearau of labor statistics data right now (I gave you the link, did you go look?) and its happening in real time in the month over month data......MoM May to June non-farm payrolls, right now, in the real world are inflating at an annualized rate in the 7%+ range. Whatever way you slice it or spin it the BLS data (which this jobs report shows is not abating) is terrible for stonks and very very bad for stocks in the short to meduim term. Why? (1) Rising wages in a full employment economy against a back drop of a weakining consumer means underlying profit margins are getting squeezed (2) If profit margins are getting squeezed so are earnings....bad for the E.....in your P/E (3) If the wage rises are centered around low to low-middle income workers (the little guy) and then we agree that these workers on average are more likely to work in low single digit margin businesses/industries with little pricing power......well then I guarantee you wage increases are feeding through into prices in those sectors. So you've got wage inflation that isnt hydrocarbon or supply chain related happening that is driving domestic price inflation. (4) Inflation that isn't supply chain & hydrocarbon related requires deeper and further Fed intervention later this year and next which isnt priced into the market (quite the opposite rate CUTS are priced in for 2023!!!) and this will be terrible for stonks (super long duration assets) and stocks via the P in their P/E (5) Go look at Jay Powell's recent Q&A....the Fed wanted to see SLACK returned to the labor market in response to their tightening.....does adding a shock 500k jobs sound like slack returning to you? do you think this means a more dovish or hawkish Fed come September?......seems like an overheating economy is getting hotter to me. (6) Inflationary problems, are like lots of problems, the longer you dont address them the larger the remedy required later to fix them.....'transitory' inflation is about turn three years old. Inflation expectations are an important part of inflationary psychology. I further expanded a number of stonk related shorts I had on Friday.........market participants are reading the data all wrong here IMO.......I'm happy to see the return of some meme stock mania last week......shows the reddit retail crowd went back to the Casino ATM for one more withdrawal to "win back" all their losses....thats good.........just because stuff has fallen 80%.....doesnt mean it cant fall another 80%. My portfolio is starting to look more and more like this - 120% long mainly low P/E international stocks hedged with US-centric stonk short book & where long in the US...its with hard asset rich inflationary beneficiaries with catalysts (MSGE/CLPR), special situations (TWTR) and levered buyback entities with long term fixed rate debt buying back gobs of stock if/when US equity markets tank further (LBTYA). I feel good about what that looks like returns wise if I'm completely wrong on my US macro framework...it should do quite well. Anyway my two cents for what it worth.

A great great deal of businesses in America, mainly retail & mainly concerned with selling essentials to low-middle income workers in neighborhood's you don't frequent......have a net margin profile in the low single digits.....when their HR opex costs go up....there's nowhere else for that expense to go except into the price of the goods they sell......but oh wait these are the same stores where these low income workers shop themselves.....thats weird their pay went up last year......but their more money is buying less than it was before.....you catch my drift, you hear me barking. Think we've beat this topic around the bush - I get your thesis and I think you get mine. The great thing about this game is we're gonna get the answer to our macro musings soon enough and we can do a post-mortem then.

Greg - grocery stores are 2% net margin businesses........I don't think I need to explain to you the implications of that in the context of what you said above.

Depends where you draw the line but lets say the above are perhaps 35% of the workforce - and I havent seen any data to suggest that these folks salary is stagnant or deflating or their is an excess supply of software developers such that the median salary is falling. Have you?I'd expect the opposite, they will receive FULL CPI linked raises......all I've seen are the headlines about hiring pauses, shopfy bla bla.....headlines arent data. I'm watching the monthly Bureau of Labor statistics like a hawk to see it.......and it isnt there. Check it out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm Say the above is 65% of the US workforce (if Im to accept your premise, which I dont. I think white collar professionals are getting on average far in excess of CPI raises) Well you've got 65% of the US workforce "price" for labor inflating........and not by a little bit....... last month data (May to June) annualized i saw suggested 7.5% inflation Its no problem at all if CPI falls back to 2.5%. Totally agreed.........but how does CPI fall back to 2-ish% exactly in 7.5% wage inflating environment???????....I've agreed with you it goes from 9% to 6% easy peazy....guaranteed take it to the bank.......but how does it go from 6% to 2% when the labor forces wages are rising at 7.5% annullized? You dont think that income & business input costs dont flow through to prices? Then while were at and like previous conversations......which of these two CPI-linked 6% wage increase negotiations do you think, on average works out for the participant (1) 'Little guy', grocery store clerk asking his boss for 6% pay increase to restore his purchasing power (2) Facebook software developer looking for CPI raise........its function of leverage, scarcity, inherent margins in the business they respectively work in, the value they add inside of that................I can tell you the answer it goes way better on average for contestant No.2......he has skills that command pricing power, they value HE adds in a high margin/low capital intensity business is immeasurably larger than clerk....he delivers a huge labor surplus to his employer.......the little guy just isnt creating as much value from which wage increases can flow.....he's working in a grocery store with what 2% net margins......if hes succesful......the grocery store owner has to put up prices to compensate....and we all know what thats called.

If it travels on the back of a boat/truck/plane/shipping container.........its deflating (better still if its coming from overseas, priced in a foreign currency & being bought with appreciated dollars). I'm in total and utter agreement its DEFLATING. End of story. If "it" has a heart beat, completes tasks & does things for you............its inflating. In a very meaningful way even in the month over month data right now. The question remains, IMO, if the rate of change and/or the supply/demand imbalance here moderates by itself (in response to falling goods prices) or it persists and requires further Fed tightening. An over-heating inflationary economy doesn't require plastic spoon prices going up 20% a year in front of your eyes..........it just requires what we have now which is persistent domestic aggregate demand exceeding the scope of the domestic economy to supply it...............and it will remain so, unless there is further tightening of financial conditions (demand shock) or some positive SERVICES supply shock......a supply shock like 3 million Ukrainians relocating to work in the USA. For context on the above: Goods - represent something like 40% of average personal consumption Services - 60% of personal consumption P.S.: V dirty math - top-line inflation figures running at 9%......7% of which is above Fed inflation target and considered excess..........60% of that 7 excess = 4.2%.....add back 2% ok inflation = 6.2% made in America inflation rate. The Fed is not gonna be cool with that....even if I'm 30% off on the above and i think in reality goods inflation are driving the YoY numbers so i reckon the underlying is more like late 4'/early5%'s inflation...they aren't going to be cool with that either.

Nice one - I'm gonna steal that

Right now all thats happening in your limited model is that the lack of Russian computer scientist and Haitian construction workers is driving inflation which is stealing, in a meaningful way, the purchasing power of the least well off disproportionately. In terms of the software developer.........global companies have global choices.....difficult to source jobs in the US....simply becomes a job in a different country, they win the USA loses....GitHub doesnt give a shit where the code is coming from just as long as its coming in - a country willfully loosing productivity growth to other countries in a globalized digitized competitive economy is a moronic and self-defeating own goal. Indeed this incremental programer in the US needs good and services thats supplied by low skilled works.....the economy is not and never has been a zero sum game. Immigration isn't a floodgate that opens up and cant be turned off.....it is a tool that can and should be utilized based on the macroeconomic environment........ultra low unemployment.....turn it on.......negative GDP growth and unemployment at 6%, turn it off.........somewhere in between target it at sector specific 'growth' areas.......the issue in the US is immigration has been weaponized in the never ending culture wars where one side says 'pro' and the other immediately rushes to the polar opposite view point....which then gets closed looped by whatever confirmation bias media machine vortex you happen to have been sucked into at birth.....Fox world or MSDNC.

TWTR