Red Lion

I don't want to slander CG, and I need to revisit the idea to give it a fair shake. However, I developed an opinion that CG is something of a perennial underperformer in terms of AUM growth and with a greater component of carried interest than its competitors. This opinion was developed several years back, and I think that proved out to be true over a number of years, but I haven't done a deep dive since 2019 or 2020. I also decided to exit brookfield and focus more on OWL/KKR/APO/BX. I need to revisit Brookfield and CG again, possibly BAM. I just have a feeling we might be seeing some significant equity market volatility next year, and I'd like to use this as a position of strength to jump back into my favorites. I am continuing to hold big positions in OWL and APO, but don't feel like they're at super attractive entry points. Yet I wrote that about APO when I started the topic (that it wasn't a great entry point) and it's over doubled since then. I need to stop trading so much, I'm sure it's hurting my returns.

I don't have a specific valuation, it's more that I feel that this is a fair multiple for the combined CP/KSU business if they're able to execute on their synergies/revenue growth/margin improvement goals set out at the investor day. Management is projecting mid double digit EPS growth through 2028. I'm not backing up the truck yet, but I've sniffed around the railroads for years and always end up missing good entry points waiting for a better valuation. I also think that CP has been selling off on some idea that the Trump Trade is bad for trade with Mexico. I just don't buy that argument at all, I think onshoring will lead to more trade with Mexico and Canada than ever before. Right now I've been recycling some gains inside my tax deferred accounts and dabbling in a few different ideas as I get more comfortable with them. This is usually my strategy, but I'm trying to diversify away from my favorite subsector (the alternative asset managers) since I've seen what happens to them in choppy markets and it's not pretty.

Upgraded my tracking position in CP to a starter position. Thank you @Dinar for bringing this back to my radar. I've been working on the valuation for the last 6 weeks or so, and am comfortable enough here to increase my exposure especially since I've been taking profits on some other positions lately and don't want to be all cash.

I just added to CPT and JOE, and started a new position in MAA. All inside my tax deferred account.

Apparently not CLPR.

Isn't this the entirety of modern United States financial history summed up right here? We're in a state of perpetual inflation except when we are having a fiscal crisis.

I agree with that, at least post 2007, although quite a number of people have experienced an economic environment pre 2007 GFC easy money era. It seems to me that easy money is almost certain to continue, because it's the path of lease resistance to continue funding entitlement spending. I think the rising interest rates and QT of the last couple years are nothing but a hiccup in the long run QE/low interest rates trend. If you think the FED/treasury are going to allow us to go back to a super tight monetary policy system for a long period of time, I just don't see how the math works with some much debt compared to the size of the economy. IT's much easier to sustain low interest rate / QE / financial engineering to manipulate interest rates. Combined with the strongest economy in the world, I think the USA can probably keep chugging along quite a long time on this manipulated loose money high debt formula.

Chat gpt prompt: write a stock recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway in the rhetorical style of Whitney Tilson.

What's more interesting to me is to see what happens after they arrest a suspect. It's fairly obviously a premeditated killing, but if this is some sort of revenge killing after losing a family member due to denied claims for example, would a jury unanimously convict him of murder? Seems like a possible jury nullification type case.

Trimmed more APO and OWL in retirement accounts. Sold PM in retirement account as well.

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. I wish I had an idea like this now.

I've been trimming some big winners in my 401k and raised 40% cash which is currently parked in very short duration T-bills. I also raised some cash in taxable accounts by doing a cash-out refi on an investment property at 60% LTV (at 6.6% APR on a 30 year mortgage). It's been a good several years, and so far I'm up 36% in 2024 after a great 2022 and 2023. I'm honestly not market timing, but unfortunately my favorite investments are all priced, if not for perfection, at least for an excellent future, and I have a quite concentrated stock portfolio. I'm not a full time investor, although it feels like my most important job these days. I plan to spend time doing more research and deploy most of this capital opportunistically. I'm sure I'll find something more attractive than T-bills in fairly short order. If I don't find something compelling, I'll probably get back to selling short duration puts while I continue looking. Right now my largest publicly traded positions are JOE, APO, OWL, BTI, PM, CPT, OXY/WT, but my stock allocation is the lowest it's been in the last few years. I've taken significant profits from APO, OWL, and PM over the last few weeks, and some less significant profits on a few other smaller positions.

And then the rug got pulled and they all switched to heroin. And then the heroin got contaminated with fentanyl. All over the last 12 years.

You don’t have to go so far back into the history books to see other examples. eg the opium wars.

+1