@Canalyst great thread, BAM/KKR/APO are my top three holdings, I see a lot of value in this business model as well as the general alternative asset management universe. I think it's hard to know how to accurately value these companies, but currently I think APO and KKR are quite inexpensive at current valuations even without knowing exactly how to value the annuity assets or carried interest, just based on Fee Related Earning power.
Apollo did about $2.09 per share in Fee Related Earnings in 2021, growing at a 15%+ annual rate, KKR did 2.27 per share, growing faster than that. So valuing the FRE from either one at reasonable multiples (17.5-25 based on trailing FRE even though this earnings stream is growing rapidly) accounts for most (or all) of the market cap of APO/KKR, so you're really paying a very low multiple for the remaining carried interest potential, book value, and in Apollo's case the significant spread related earnings from its insurance business.
@Spekulatius I think these investments are likely to be much more successful than the hedge fund backed insurance companies that you mention because: 1) they are operating at a larger scale without much chance of big underwriting misses based on the annuity book of business; and 2) I think the alt asset managers are way better than hedge funds at sourcing private fixed income / fixed income replacement investments. Think privately originated mortgages, auto loans, aviation finance, clo's, etc. etc. When you buy APO/KKR/BAM today, you are buying an asset light alternative asset management fee related earnings power house combined with captive insurance assets in varying degrees (most insurance exposure in APO). The hedge fund insurance companies were just a captive pool of money to generate hedge fund fees and they turned out to have poor underwriting discipline as well, whereas here you get to own the lucrative asset management business AND the insurance assets.