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Red Lion

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Everything posted by Red Lion

  1. I see that you included KKR, and gokou3 recommended BAM, so let me include BX and APO. I own all 4 of these in a basket (although not as much BX due to its seemingly perpetual premium valuation), and think they should do well over the next 10 years.
  2. @Canalyst great thread, BAM/KKR/APO are my top three holdings, I see a lot of value in this business model as well as the general alternative asset management universe. I think it's hard to know how to accurately value these companies, but currently I think APO and KKR are quite inexpensive at current valuations even without knowing exactly how to value the annuity assets or carried interest, just based on Fee Related Earning power. Apollo did about $2.09 per share in Fee Related Earnings in 2021, growing at a 15%+ annual rate, KKR did 2.27 per share, growing faster than that. So valuing the FRE from either one at reasonable multiples (17.5-25 based on trailing FRE even though this earnings stream is growing rapidly) accounts for most (or all) of the market cap of APO/KKR, so you're really paying a very low multiple for the remaining carried interest potential, book value, and in Apollo's case the significant spread related earnings from its insurance business. @Spekulatius I think these investments are likely to be much more successful than the hedge fund backed insurance companies that you mention because: 1) they are operating at a larger scale without much chance of big underwriting misses based on the annuity book of business; and 2) I think the alt asset managers are way better than hedge funds at sourcing private fixed income / fixed income replacement investments. Think privately originated mortgages, auto loans, aviation finance, clo's, etc. etc. When you buy APO/KKR/BAM today, you are buying an asset light alternative asset management fee related earnings power house combined with captive insurance assets in varying degrees (most insurance exposure in APO). The hedge fund insurance companies were just a captive pool of money to generate hedge fund fees and they turned out to have poor underwriting discipline as well, whereas here you get to own the lucrative asset management business AND the insurance assets.
  3. KKR. Going to have to slow the roll from here on out since I'm pushing up on this being my #1 position. I've been drinking heavily at the alternative asset manager fountain all year.
  4. Altria in my taxable account for a long term gain. Recycled proceeds into KKR. Will probably try to replace the Altria shares over the coming months inside my tax deferred accounts.
  5. Sold a starter position in OWL that I just bought for a 2% loss, and used the proceeds to plow into more KKR at a 59 handle.
  6. More KKR and APO.
  7. APO and more KKR.
  8. Sold off my recently acquired Burford shares at around the same price I bought them to free capital for higher conviction picks.
  9. Trimmed my MO position.
  10. Closed out of my $10/$15 April call spread on APTS. Feel like a real dumbass with that $15 call option.
  11. KKR. FISV puts that I sold a couple months back.
  12. Invested my Valentine's Day Blackstone dividend into KKR.
  13. Haha. I'm a blasphemous son of a bitch, I know! I did keep most of my Berkshire Hathaway shares, and sold inside a tax deferred account. Famous last words.
  14. Sold my ATVI and bought back my covered calls for a 2% loss to go off margin. Sold Jan 23 $60 KKR puts for $6.70 and reinvested the options proceeds into more KKR at just under $63.
  15. Sold BRK.B at 320 in a 401k account to buy shares in KKR at 63.20. I would anticipate buying these BRK.B shares back in an opportunistic fashion.
  16. Increased KKR by about a third at $63.18.
  17. Sold covered calls on ATVI which was recently assigned on margin for a short PUT I wrote the day of the takeover offer news. I picked the 1/20/23 expiration, $90 strike price for $2.29.
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