Cod Liver Oil

@dealrakerLindsell Train has owned LSE for over 25 years; they agree with you and MSFT that is the LSE is great toll road and worthy of a position in the forever portfolio. I was asking a couple executives in the music business yesterday if UMG had an entrenched toll-taking position and they both reluctantly said yes. They both pay their tithe to UMG quarterly and don't see that changing anytime soon. Buffett bought a few very cheap looking Japanese trading houses based on the same logic. I see Alphabet as the toll taker on the internet. TPL is the toll taker in the Permian. DIS and Nintendo are the toll booths on childhood. JOE is a toll on the demographic shift to Florida from high tax northern states. Toll taking is a great heuristic.

I wrote a letter to WB asking what’s up with that and switched to Costco to keep it in the family. I’ll let you guys know if Mr. B answers. Thanks for the suggestions.

Strange but true:: Geico is trying to raise my car insurance premiums (NJ) from $700 to $4000 (500% increase). They said it is because my wife got a speeding ticket a year ago. No claims or change in driving habits otherwise.

Train's "Money Masters" books are great. He has looked closely at Buffett, Fisher and Templeton etc.... Interesting guy. I just realized that Train Lindsell only manages about $100mm so there is not a huge retail appetite for his ultra long term, cerebral kind of investing. When you think very long term you need to look past the current cast of character actors running the business because their careers will end before your investment horizon does. @Dinar I think Goldman is like Harvard, its too culturally and politically enmeshed to go away but yes it is run for the partners and the public stub will never get a multiple. If you squint past all the political bs at DIS, it will survive and thrive eventually IMO. UMG is very interesting and I have thought a lot about it lately as a toll road but my conversations with people in the music business are not satisfying. The SPOT/UMG tug of war seems unsustainably one sided at the moment.

@John Hjorth I say it as a joke because long term thinking involves some sorcery. Man plans, God laughs. At least half the things I plan, do not happen. Human intention is a weak force in the universe. Systems probably have better robustness. For instance, I have noticed a lot of generational wealth created in RE so that seems like a fertile place to look. I am looking for things that will persist and not obsolete, trophy assets like a great brand (DIS or Nintendo) or something with scarcity (a team or a well located mine), or an irreplaceable right of way (railways). These are things that supersede the frailty of the humans involved. As Buffett said, an idiot will probably manage your investment at some point, so it needs to withstand a Zaslav or two.

Very well said.

This is from Lindsell Train who has an average holding period of 25 years: https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/3516/6981/1044/The_Triumph_of_Experience_Over_Hope_-_November_2022.pdf @Gregmaland I sometimes discuss the lure of a permanent portfolio. @dealrakerand Buffett seem to be practitioners of that dark art. Thinking very long term probably makes you a better trader in the part of the portfolio that isn't. Yes, survivorship bias, but companies like Nintendo, Diageo, Texas Pacific and Bollore are already over 100 years old and may have solid futures. JOE could be fantastic over the next 20 years or climate tail events could kill it. What names can you even dare to think about for the next generation?

We are mostly long term long oriented conservative investors but we like to have 5-10% of the portfolio in special situations or high r/r skews. It keeps you fresh. I have followed Nam Tai Property (NTP/NTPIF) for a awhile. It is hairy AF with rogue Chinese executives, the Kaisa bankruptcy, an American HF activist (Oasis) and a Caribbean court: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221118005541/en/Nam-Tai-Property-Provides-Corporate-Updates We bought a block from DB right before they delisted. Now we are buying more in the expert market. The stock is $1.50. NAV estimates are between $18 and $30. Oasis has a $5 cost basis and is winning legally as they try to make this thing work. This may be more of an intellectual exercise for most people but it is fascinating. Peter Kellogg has been involved for years: https://www.ft.com/content/d5942485-1ddd-4055-9610-2a808a35aa7d https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3158022/kaisa-loses-control-nam-tais-board-epic-revolt-led-activist https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/caribbean-court-american-billionaire-chinese-224049534.html It will be somewhere between a zero and a 10x. Kelly would actually say to make a sizable bet here. Ill keep it at 100 bp.

This is for @dealraker:

Zaslav's comp alone should get Malone retroactively excised from the "Outsiders". https://www.amazon.com/Outsiders-Unconventional-Radically-Rational-Blueprint/dp/1422162672 Malone's formula worked great for 10 or 15 years. It is obsolete now. Very few guys remain outstanding through several business cycles. Drukenmiller and Buffett (maybe @dealraker?) are a couple of the rare exceptions.

@Spekulatius I am operating under the flawed assumption that DTC will end up with decent economics and pricing power for the winners. At $90, you are paying about $100bn for DIS ex DTC, no?

Selling some energy and buying DIS and MSGE. Taking Narcan and stepping into the pain.

The bear is on his hind legs. If you are long, you probably have some scars at this point. Now might be a good time to take an informal survey of the pain levels of the investors here. Everyone has different pain thresholds and psychological comportment. The COBF community may be significantly different from the investing public. But investing is probably 3/4 a psychological game. Self-reporting psychological states is hugely flawed but it would be cool to check in and see how much or little pain people are feeling and how it is affecting your behavior as an investor and consumer. Me: pain level 7, 70% long, buying more of my favorite companies, eggs in bulk and deadlifting 3x per week.

Apple beautifully pickpockets more money from me every month: apple pay, apple card, apple tv, cloud storage etc.. Every few years: phones, laptops, ipads, airpods. They run the world better than the government.

I have developed a workout toolbox. BTW, working out with a bro if possible is fun. One day per week, nickles and dimes (see below). Bodyweight stuff One day: deadlifts (heavy weights, 5 by 5) One day: sprint on track or run hills One day: Volume (light weights, sets of 20) One day: chop wood or play a sport One day: long walk One day: do nothing, eat a lot of carbs, nap

@PJH11 Good questions. The mine life extension should be filed within the next few weeks. I have not heard about any objections from Idaho but the chance of denial is non zero. If they get the extension, the stock probably goes up 20% the day of the announcement. If not, it goes down by a third. I assign a 90% probability of success. Idaho is a red state with a big interest in mining. The feds are actively promoting domestic fertilizer production so I don't anticipate an issue. The cost of developing the new site is about $50mm which Itafos can fund from operations or sale of non core stuff. The existing mine has 3 or 4 years left; the new is supposed to be just as productive.

I also play very informal family soccer (kids and parents) on Sunday mornings. Its fun to run around like nuts with your kids for an hour or so. If anyone lives near Morristown, NJ and wants to play, lmk.

@LC I am agnostic on pricing. They have already paid down debt to $100mm.. If they sell the non core foreign assets, they can bring debt to zero. Then you are left owning Conda, one of the largest phosphate mines in the US and probably an asset of national food security. In a de-globalizing world, that is a nice thing to own.

@Gregmal Start small with body weight and a pull up bar and a set of something like this: https://www.amazon.com/ProForm-Select-Weight-Dumbbell-Black/dp/B08BDD6GNM/ref=sr_1_16?crid=2WGBLJ3KYRKD7&keywords=nested%2Bdumbbells&qid=1666191863&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIzLjQzIiwicXNhIjoiMi40MiIsInFzcCI6IjEuNTkifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=nested%2Bdumbbe%2Caps%2C99&sr=8-16&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.ac2169a1-b668-44b9-8bd0-5ec63b24bcb5&th=1 Just hit a few reps every time you walk past the thing. Do something every day. If you want heavy weights, go to the Y a couple times per week. Ill post a couple a programs later. Def good for ADD, patience with crazy kids and clients and being able to rip faces off if necessary.

I have owned Itafos (IFOS.V) for a couple of years and buy more when it pulls back like now. It is the cheapest thing I own at 2 times fcf. Yes, it is a fertilizer company but is a secular bet on the American food supply chain becoming an area of national security. It's main asset is in Idaho. It is paying down debt rapidly with the gushing fcf, selling non core assets and has responsible and aligned owners in Castlelake. We don't own much commodity related stuff except TPL but I like the odds on this. https://itafos.com/

To paraphrase the Mexican soccer player in Ted Lasso "Investing is life!!!!!" I get a big kick out of all the personalities on COBF. It proves that an internet community can actually add value and fun to your life. Who knew? Like most people here, I love my kids and coffee and sports but the one non linear thing that has radically improved my life is weight training. It makes no sense but I am a better father, husband and person since I started lifting about 10 years ago. I was a D-1 athlete and was always fit but never really lifted in college. All of it is good including that Starting Strength stuff. I also like this Knees Over Toes guy for strength at the ends of your range of motion. LMK if you get into it:

I realize this is an unattainable standard but I love the idea of a hundred year time horizon where you only buy cool companies and never sell them. I love the idea of enjoying the businesses you own amidst all the agitation as both a source of pleasure and education which informs your life. Owning Nintendo, Disney and MSG is a hell of a lot of fun and has made me a better businessman. I expect the economic returns will come with time. Thanks for articulating that, dealraker.

Druk is not really a stock picker. He is a great portfolio risk manager. I spend way too much time on security selection and, being perennially agnostic toward the market, punt on exposure. In times like these risk exposure dwarfs security selection in importance. Its a blind spot for me.

Druk. shares DNA with Soros. Like most HF managers, they got paid for pre-tax performance which strongly influences their approach. If you took his 30% for 20 years but taxed it at ordinary income tax rates, the results would regress accordingly. Does anybody want to run that regression? No shade on Druk, he is a legend. If you are an after tax, compounding type investor, the proposition is significantly different. Your time horizon may be orders of magnitude longer. Sloth may be more rewarded than aggression. Your focal point is different. If you are a vanilla wealth manager taking 50 or 100bp of AUM, you play a lot of defense trying to manage relationships with a likable portfolio. If you are dealing with family wealth that may be passed down, you are paying attention to the stepped up tax basis benefit. I am fascinated by trying to construct a forever portfolio which you don't fuss with much, like Dealraker who has owned the same things for 50 years. I have heard about guys who never sell stocks at all but only buy when cash is available. My five largest positions (75% of the portfolio) have remained the same since the GFC. Now I am cleaning out the underbrush and adding a couple of other large positions that seem interesting. Companies with long histories like Nintendo and Bollore are cool the way they have persisted for 100 years+. Margin, currencies, a short book and derivatives are a whole other set of variables that many successful guys have used. In the name of simplicity, I have not done a lot of that.