Cod Liver Oil

How large are you making Nintendo? What factors are informing your timing? We have it at 10% now thinking the transition to higher margin subscription/app business, monetization of IP in parks and movies and near term console upgrade will all play out in the next 12 months. The fan base shows all the signs of healthy addiction.

@LC what types of businesses did you buy? Running your own shop definitely makes you a better investor because you think like a business owner but small businesses tend to be simple monoline affairs while public securities are subject to more complex interacting forces which are impossible to fully score. It is a miracle that we have the breadth of opportunity to invest easily in thousands of publicly traded situations.

@Viking beautiful post. Thank you.

@hasilp89 Dark stuff is the wild west. You can look at https://equityzen.com/ for pre-ipo stuff.

Hi @Morgan I have used Odeon and Morgan Stanley.

More Nintendo since there seems to be no obvious catalyst.

It's not Joe and it's not Nintendo but Campari appeals to my weakness for European family controlled owner/operators in moaty sinful businesses. I love those 100 year old fiefdoms. I bought some for my kids today. Thanks, @Dinar.

This is kind of great. You can watch it with your kids. We all cried.

IMO, all the Disney politics is just noise. All large companies need to balance their constituencies to keep business humming along. If too many employees, customers, shareholders or regulators are not happy, the company adjusts. Chapek was especially tone deaf.

@Lucato clarify, when my friend at IBM (head of a large division) says AI is Alphabet’s to lose, he means they own the space and need to royally fuck up to lose their lead. I agree with you that they are strategically playing coy with their capabilities.

@crs223i just mean you can own that stuff and not angst about trading it and end your workday at 3 to pick up the kids at school. My friend at IBM confirmed that the AI space is Alphabet’s to lose. I hope they are losing some sleep over it. YouTube is kicking ass and cloud also growing well. Clearly a great company with a moderate to severe case of complacency. Ironic justice served as MSFT is tanking as it announces the Bing/Chatgpt combination.

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience.

Apple Card/Apple Pay is a gorgeous system. Does anyone else use it?

Insane stuff!!!! I switched my auto to Progressive and kept my home with Chubb.

Why is YouTube music so much better than Spotify?

@ValueArbgreat point. I was thinking about Disney and Buffett in that regard. He has been in and out of it a few times even though he is bros with Iger. Right now the film library is being valued at zero but it may be the DNA of the company and the key to its longevity.

Getting put a truck load of MSGE while deadlifting and trying to find a drone for my 8 year old.

@dealraker your investment club sounds fascinating. Would you consider posting a video or audio of one of your meetings? We could all learn a thing or two about civil and intelligent dialogue and disagreement. If you filmed it from the rear, everyone would preserve their anonymity.

@dealrakerLindsell Train has owned LSE for over 25 years; they agree with you and MSFT that is the LSE is great toll road and worthy of a position in the forever portfolio. I was asking a couple executives in the music business yesterday if UMG had an entrenched toll-taking position and they both reluctantly said yes. They both pay their tithe to UMG quarterly and don't see that changing anytime soon. Buffett bought a few very cheap looking Japanese trading houses based on the same logic. I see Alphabet as the toll taker on the internet. TPL is the toll taker in the Permian. DIS and Nintendo are the toll booths on childhood. JOE is a toll on the demographic shift to Florida from high tax northern states. Toll taking is a great heuristic.

I wrote a letter to WB asking what’s up with that and switched to Costco to keep it in the family. I’ll let you guys know if Mr. B answers. Thanks for the suggestions.

Strange but true:: Geico is trying to raise my car insurance premiums (NJ) from $700 to $4000 (500% increase). They said it is because my wife got a speeding ticket a year ago. No claims or change in driving habits otherwise.

Train's "Money Masters" books are great. He has looked closely at Buffett, Fisher and Templeton etc.... Interesting guy. I just realized that Train Lindsell only manages about $100mm so there is not a huge retail appetite for his ultra long term, cerebral kind of investing. When you think very long term you need to look past the current cast of character actors running the business because their careers will end before your investment horizon does. @Dinar I think Goldman is like Harvard, its too culturally and politically enmeshed to go away but yes it is run for the partners and the public stub will never get a multiple. If you squint past all the political bs at DIS, it will survive and thrive eventually IMO. UMG is very interesting and I have thought a lot about it lately as a toll road but my conversations with people in the music business are not satisfying. The SPOT/UMG tug of war seems unsustainably one sided at the moment.

@John Hjorth I say it as a joke because long term thinking involves some sorcery. Man plans, God laughs. At least half the things I plan, do not happen. Human intention is a weak force in the universe. Systems probably have better robustness. For instance, I have noticed a lot of generational wealth created in RE so that seems like a fertile place to look. I am looking for things that will persist and not obsolete, trophy assets like a great brand (DIS or Nintendo) or something with scarcity (a team or a well located mine), or an irreplaceable right of way (railways). These are things that supersede the frailty of the humans involved. As Buffett said, an idiot will probably manage your investment at some point, so it needs to withstand a Zaslav or two.

Very well said.

This is from Lindsell Train who has an average holding period of 25 years: https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/3516/6981/1044/The_Triumph_of_Experience_Over_Hope_-_November_2022.pdf @Gregmaland I sometimes discuss the lure of a permanent portfolio. @dealrakerand Buffett seem to be practitioners of that dark art. Thinking very long term probably makes you a better trader in the part of the portfolio that isn't. Yes, survivorship bias, but companies like Nintendo, Diageo, Texas Pacific and Bollore are already over 100 years old and may have solid futures. JOE could be fantastic over the next 20 years or climate tail events could kill it. What names can you even dare to think about for the next generation?