nwoodman

Purchasing Power Parity would put it in the 60-70 cent range. An overshoot, as these things typically do, would put it into the 40-50 cent range. http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/PPP.html It has been a wonderful period to invest funds overseas as the margin of safety has been the AUD. Alas, most Australian's have been sinking the proceeds of a multi-generational terms of trade boom into residential property. As the AUD drops and inflation picks up, no doubt house prices may well track sideways for 10 years. The punters will conclude property never goes down. They will be correct except for the fact that their purchasing power has been halved. cheers nwoodman

Me too:) That was a value trap if there ever was one. At one time I had a large chunk of my measly net worth in it, thankfully I was able to blow up that idea. In terms of French stocks, I currently have about 2% of the portfolio in Parrot (PARRO.PA). I like Henri Seydoux's style and innovative touch. Company seems cheap but they need to accelerate new products to replace their hands free bluetooth offerings. I am betting they can and the collaborative endeavors with Phillipe Starck give me hope. It is kind of like finding a French version of Apple on the cheap. cheers nwoodman

Those derivatives may pay off yet "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With the inflation rate about half of the Federal Reserve's 2.0 percent target, the central bank is facing a major test and some experts wonder whether it will eventually need to ramp up its already aggressive bond buying program. The Fed cut official interest rates effectively to zero in late 2008 during the financial crisis. Since then, it has bought more than $2.5 trillion in bonds to bolster an anemic economic recovery and speed up the decline in unemployment. Despite those actions, its favored inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, has fallen to a 3-1/2 year low of 1.0 percent. Further, by the Fed's own forecasts, inflation is likely to remain short of the central bank's target for years." http://news.yahoo.com/feds-credibility-tested-inflation-drifts-below-target-050452235.html

It will be interesting to see if we feel the same way in 12 months time. Right now the hedging as well as the low P/B is what I find so appealing about FFH.

Sure is. Been a while since I checked Gurufocus and noticed that they have also added some extra metrics. US Market Cap/GNP (MKT/GNP 107%) http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Schiller P/E (P/E 23) http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php Australia (MKT/GDP 126%) http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=AUS Although way too early, the more extended this becomes the easier time I have with FFH's hedging policy. I have even rotated a small amount of BRK into FFH which I thought I would never do.

A reprint of the WSJ article on the same topic (but no subscription required) http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/04/26/buffett-berkshire-hires-four-top-aig-executives/

Thank-you for posting this, it is very generous of you. The graph of the PC industry profitability over the longer term is very helpful cheers nwoodman

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20130425/NEWS04/130429867?tags=|306|76|78

Thanks Frith2012. I wish Munger's views carried some influence here in Australia. We are taking the opposite stance, instant gratification :(

Thanks for posting the interview. Loews comprises a material amount of my portfolio but every time I hear JT interviewed, inevitably there are those cringe moments. I think I know where he is coming from but his arguments for capital allocation by the private sector and exporting gas were particularly weak today. I don't disagree with him but we are spoilt after listening to the unforced force of more eloquent business luminaries such as Munger. Has anyone ever heard Munger state his position on whether the USA should start exporting LNG? I certainly recall that he believes we are squandering longer chain hydrocarbons by combusting them rather than using them to generate more elaborate products. cheers nwoodman

Congratulations Sanjeev and thanks to all participants. I am definitely wiser and wealthier for the experience Regards nwoodman

FWIW 1.5-1.6 is my baseline valuation as well. I hope it never gets there as it will be difficult to find another investment that has the same "sleep easy" characteristics. If FFH was still at book then perhaps....

Q4 2012 CC Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/1188131-fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-management-discusses-q4-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=google_news

Dataroma is correct based on the 13F. However as you rightly point out the 13G filing is almost twice as much. The entities relating to the 13G filing are: 1. This statement is being jointly filed by the following persons (collectively, the “Reporting Persons”): 2. V. Prem Watsa, an individual; 3. 1109519 Ontario Limited (“1109519”), a corporation incorporated under the laws of Ontario; 4. The Sixty Two Investment Company Limited (“Sixty Two”), a corporation incorporated under the laws of British Columbia; 5. 810679 Ontario Limited (“810679”), a corporation incorporated under the laws of Ontario; 6. Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”), a corporation incorporated under the laws of Canada; 7. Fairfax (US) Inc. (“Fairfax US”), a Delaware corporation; and 8. Odyssey Reinsurance Company (“Odyssey”), a corporation incorporated under the laws of Connecticut. Any clues as to how you can have such vastly different amounts between filings considering Sixty Two and Ontario are Prem's vehicles for his Fairfax shares? Cheers nwoodman

Dataroma Link http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FFH

0% cash FFH32% BRK 26% L14% BAC5% LRE4% BKIR4% GAP.AX4% DELL4% <4% UNAM, MKL, RIMM, PARRO.PA Thanks to all for such a great forum. New cash going to FFH due to P/B and inherent hedge, however all the companies I am interested in look undervalued when investing AUD.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2013/01/16/reminder-fairfax-financial-goes-ex-dividend-soon/?partner=yahootix On 1/18/13, Fairfax Financial Holdings, Ltd. (Toronto: FFH) will trade ex-dividend, for its annual dividend of $10.00, payable on 1/29/13.

Thanks for this. Would you care to speculate the likely impact for LRE or Odyssey Re? Thanks in advance

It indeed does look promising. Heins was initially our show stopper but we think we get him now. We picked up a very small position in RIMM when they were trading sub $7. However we have been adding to our relatively large FFH position below $370, the recent sell off making it much easier. We have come to the conclusion that RIMM can a be viable option for 3rd place which is crazy if you paid >$60/share but works <$20/share

Well you just confirmed the benefits so a win win :)

Hi Gio, Greatly appreciated and thanks for the breakdown. Btw is that level of detail only available to subscribers? Cheers nwoodman

Given they now own 51.9m shares of RIMM, I believe their break even to be under $20. Does anyone have a more accurate estimate as at Q3? Thanks in advance nwoodman

Thanks, that explains the recent price action. Life just got interesting for the Cheldin's Cheers nwoodman

Another article http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/11/4977686/leons-to-acquire-the-brick.html "Each of William Comrie, the founder of The Brick, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("Fairfax"), Chou RRSP Fund, and Bill Gregson, the Executive Chair of The Brick's Board of Directors, who together hold approximately 66.6% of the outstanding common shares and warrants of The Brick, have entered into irrevocable voting support agreements and agreed to vote their common shares in favour of the Arrangement."

This was excellent! Thanks for posting these nwoodman