Saluki

Thanks for the kind words. I was having a bad day, but it's nice to see that people appreciate humans trying to help other humans

I put these things together in case it helpful to anyone here who is working at the Federal Government or knows someone who is and is worried about losing their job. I include a checklist at the end that was very useful when I was getting ready to early retire to make sure I had all my ducks lined up in a row. Feel free to forward or copy paste anything that you think would help someone you know. Working at an agency covered by a collective bargaining agreement. If you work at an agency that has a union and is covered by a collective bargaining agreement, speak to your union representative. It’s free, and because you have rights in your collective bargaining agreement that may be greater than those that exist in the regulations governing other federal employees, you are in a different, better position. Agency not covered by collective bargaining agreement. If you have a unique circumstance that places you in danger such as being a probationary employee, recently transferred or promoted, or being politically targeted like DOJ lawyers who worked on January 6 cases, you should seek out an employment law firm that deals with federal employees and book an hour or two of their time to discuss your issues and get advice for gathering evidence to protect yourself. There are lots of employment law firms that will take your money but the rules about federal employment are specialized and you don’t want a dabbler. I’m not recommending any particular firm, but rather a type of firm that specializes in representing federal employees like the ones below. I don’t get anything for recommending these firms, and I’m including three names so that it doesn’t look like I am giving you one name and telling you they are good. I am not saying go to any of these 3, but find a firm like these that do only (or mostly) these types of cases. https://www.attorneymahoney.com/ https://fedpractice.com/meet-our-team/ https://www.fedelaw.com/washington-dc-federal-employment-attorney/ No money for a lawyer: If you are worried about being laid off and don’t want to pay for two hours of a lawyer’s time but still want some answers to very basic questions, not just hear scary stories on the news, this is what I would do. I am NOT an employment lawyer, so I don’t know the answers to a lot of the questions people have, but if I did want to know, these are the resources I would use, if the ones above were unavailable or unaffordable. LEGAL BOOKS Federal Employees Legal Survival Guide, 3rd Edition by Joseph V. Kaplan (2014-05-03) This one is very thorough at almost 700 pages. It’s $92, so it’s priced like a textbook, but it’s probably my first choice, and I would split the cost with a co-worker if necessary. https://amzn.to/3DejU70 FedWeek's 2025 Federal Employees Handbook This is about ⅓ the size of the other book at 250 pages and it’s only $20. It obviously doesn’t get into as much detail, but I bought one of these when I first joined the government (out of date now). And it’s a decent resource that everyone should have. https://amzn.to/4h2yVqn YOUTUBE Channels: Besides the scary news channels, there are a few that are very useful. Fedsmith Channel: Very detailed channel by lawyers and financial discussing federal rights and benefits for employees and retirees. They have been providing content for years on these topics and have been putting out one or two videos and articles a day trying to keep up the dumpster fires as they spread. https://www.fedsmith.com/ https://www.youtube.com/@fedsmith This one is mine where I will be talking about some of these issues: https://www.youtube.com/@iamnotyourlawyer These other two are general news sites devoted to the federal government and contractors, but not necessarily focused on the workers or retirees: https://fedscoop.com/ https://federalnewsnetwork.com Checklist to Prepare for Leaving Government Service: Bring home personal effects Family photos Diplomas Don’t rely on them mailing it back Schedule Leave and Comp Time or Time Off Awards if you are leaving voluntarily. Annual Leave is paid out after you leave Comp time is paid out too Time off Awards are Forfeited so use these first Sick Leave is Forfeited but may be used to increase your “time in service” calculation if you are eligible for retirement. Will be restored if you re-hired with the federal government, even at a different agency. Download: All your SF-50s (especially first and last, but get all of them to be safe) Contains paygrade and title, bonuses etc. Your Entire EOPF File Be sure to save the secret password that it will generate for the encrypted PDF as that is the only way you can open/view it. Leave and Earnings statement Latest Performance Appraisal Any W2s that you want Proof of FEHB Health Insurance coverage5 (in case you return to federal service to show that had FEHB for the 5 prior years) Passwords/Personal Email. Make sure you have access to TSP.gov and Employee Express or MyPay.gov with your personal email Copy email and Phone Numbers for key people: HR Direct supervisors Your direct reports References Decide about Health Insurance: TCC Temporary Continuation of Coverage ACA Affordable Care Act coverage through spouse Decide if you want a refund of FERS contributions Probably not for FERS Possibly for FERS-FRAE Understand Ethics Rules about post-government employment. (e.g. with government contractors) Change TSP Contributions: Keep 5% contribution to keep employer match but use the rest as a cash buffer in case of layoff or contribute to a ROTH IRA or ROTH 401k, so that you can withdraw your contribution, if needed, without a tax penalty.

You mean like when the Biden's launched their Memecoin right before he took office, and where an indicted Chinese national bought $75 million of it, and the charges were dropped? You mean like where Biden bought a hotel in DC and people seeking his favor booked rooms there whenever they came to lobby? Or when they landed his plane in Scotland so that security personnel had to stay at his hotel at taxpayer expense? Or when China, which doesn't seem too concerned about intellectual property, fast tracked a bunch of copyrights for his daughters fashion brands? Or like how I now see ads, right now, with Biden's son asking me to invest in gold? Or when Biden appointed a guy who is smokes pot, is addicted to ketamine, gives nazi salutes and runs around stage screaming and wielding a chainsaw, as the guy in charge of overhauling the government. You know, when Biden's friend cancelled a contract that his company lost to a competitor, and issued it to his own company? Or when he demanded, and was given access to the most sensitive payment system in the country and at the same time is developing a payment system of his own? Oh wait that was trump? Tell me again about how much Hunter Biden's paintings sell for

Yes, for instance if your client runs out of money during a criminal trial, your ethical duty is to still represent him and pay for things like expert witnesses, if needed. It would be an interesting conversation if an MBA was involved. And the ban on fee sharing is pretty common in other industries, to prevent shady practices. For example FINRA Rule 2040 or NFA Rule 1101 prohibit fee sharing with unregistered people.

That's an interesting question and the answer is no. Lawyers have an ethical duty to put their client's interests ahead of their own, so the American Bar Association does not want business people involved in owning law firms. There is one jurisdiction that had a pilot program (DC maybe?) where they allowed an accounting firm to own an interest in a law firm. I don't think it ever caught on. There was a lot of controversy when the Wall Street firms went from partnerships to corporations and went public. Ditto for consultants. It may happen eventually for law firms too.

I don't have a person in mind, but I have a system in mind. A system with career civil servants that are hired based on merit. A system where congress and people in charge of agencies should not be open to corruption and using their influence to grow their wealth. A system where they would be banned from insider trading, and actually prosecuted for it. Does that sound so unreasonable? It's not difficult at all. How? All members of Congress and heads of agencies may not own individual stocks. They may not have blind trusts either. They may only own publicly traded ETFs or mutual funds that are available to the public. All members of Congress and heads of agencies may only have one bank account with [a specified bank]. Fidelity does all the retirement stuff for federal employees by being the lowest bidder, we can find someone to do all their banking. No member of Congress or head of an agency is permitted to make or receive payments in cash. A digital trail to root out corruption. No more freezers with cold bars and cash. Change the constitution so that the President's power to pardon does not apply to members of his family, or to members of Congress charged with corruption. Use the Singpore model: well paid public servants, judges and politicians, along with severe punishments for corruption and bribery.

YES! If mere mortals can comply with the rules about bidding on contracts then why can't he, with all that supposed brain power? Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates don't seem to have problems adapting their unique genius to pedestrian affairs. And if wasteful spending is so important to the current administration, why wasn't it an issue when the Treasury Secretary was taking a private government plane so that he and his wife could watch the eclipse? Or when the HUD Secretary spent a ridiculous amount of money (intended to house poor people) to redecorate his office. "you can't get a nice chair for less than $5,000." Or what about the flights where Air Force one was forced to stop over in Scotland and personell were made to stay at Trump's resort at taxpayer expense? I'm not trying to rude, but I spent a long time in government at a regulatory agency that had a reputation for efficiency and effectiveness, and whenever I saw a disgusting waste of funds it was NEVER at the staff level. It was always the political appointees who were nominated by the President. I'll give you an example, red and blue. RED: A chairman who has the title "Dr" in front of his name. He had two full time economists spending almost a year to do research and write his doctoral thesis for him. Then they also had to spend weeks afterwards to explain his paper to him so that he could he defend his dissertation to get his Ph.D. How about BLUE: a commissioner who instructed my friend, an economist, to find something going on in Paris between X and Y dates that had some arguable connection to our mission so that she and her chief of staff could go on a girls shopping trip. If you really care about waste, does it bother you that the guy tasked with rooting it out didn't mention how a Biden pilot contract for $400k in electric vehicles from Tesla was changed to $400 million and back-dated to look like it was approved under the prior administration? You are worried about money for a play in Afghanistan or something but this isn't a concern?

This was a printed interview and somebody fed it into AI and told it to produce an audio of it in Druckenmiller's voice. I can't tell it wasn't real.

All these "cuts" are performance theater, nothing more. It's red meat for the angry and ignorant. Since we are all investors here, assume you have two stocks and one is a 13% position and another is 0.01%, and you need to raise cash. You don't touch the big one which loses money, but you cut the smaller one, which pays a huge dividend. How are you doing? The big one is defense, 13% of spending. The second one is CFPB which had a budget of $800mm and returned $20bln to consumers since 2011. The math isn't mathing. If you think government is wasteful because the workers "don't do anything" then how is paying them for 9 months and telling them they don't have to work going to improve that productivity issue?

Is anyone familiar with French defense contractor Exail? I just stumbled across it. It makes imaging maritime stuff like Kraken Robotics or MIND, but I can't find a lot of info about it. Seems to be priced reasonably on an price/EBITDA multiple, but it's not profitable which is usually a hard pass for me on small companies with cool tech. It was formed via merger of two other companies in 2022. Any idea how their imaging stuff compares to KRKNF or MIND? And they also have stuff in photonics and aerospace, which is surprising considering how small the market cap is.

... Hegseth ordered the proposed cuts to be drawn up by Monday, according to the memo, which is dated Tuesday and includes a list of 17 categories that the Trump administration wants exempted. Among them: operations at the southern U.S. border, modernization of nuclear weapons and missile defense, and acquisition of submarines, one-way attack drones and other munitions. ... Well, my small positions in Taylor Devices and Kraken Robotics should do okay under this scenario, and there are a bunch more in the drone post I did. I have a few shares of MIND (ship radar) I bought to remind me to study it, but the 10K was only 40 something pages and I can't find info on it, so don't want to take a big position. There is a company in Australia that does drone jamming, but it was pricey the last time I looked and I assume that with countermeasures their tech will have to keep adapting and someone else could do the same thing too since the countermeasures will change and give new entrants an in. With regard to munitions, OLIN might benefit.

Yes, it was a typo. New ticker for Nextera energy partners. It dropped so much after the dividend was cut to zero that it looked good again. Probably take a year or two to see some price improvement but I can nibble along the way.

Can you explain what you mean capacity swap losses? I worked on capacity swaps when I was a young lawyer but those were Telecom swaps (indefeasible rights of use) where one guy with fiber in one part of the country gives some to another entity in another part of the country so they both have fiber everywhere instead of both of them overbuilding everywhere.

I'm doing research on renewable energy to try to transition into that space since leaving my prior job (derivatives lawyer). I found these two primers written by a law firm (as part of their marketing to position themselves as experts in this space). One is 150pp and the other is 180pp. Good references for anyone interested. https://www.growsolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/lawofsolarenergy.pdf https://files.stoel.com/files/SR/Stoel Rives - The Law of Wind.pdf

Yesterday I trimmed a few shares of CPNG and NTDOY. I was burned when I didn't trim my largest position, GOOG, and it dropped hard after the DOJ thing, but I added more and it worked out. I trimmed GOOG as it went past my pre-determined weight for it and then when it dropped again it wasn't so bad. I sold a few shares of META as it crossed the weight I felt comfortable with too. I decided CPNG and NTDOY are positions that I can sleep soundly with 5% positions.

Small nibbles to VG, XIPR and TalkMD.

I picked up a few shares of ISSC and hope to add a little each day as I keep selling off some other stuff. I got lucky a couple of days ago and picked up a few shares of POWW cumulative preferred when it dropped 10% for no reason (sloppy seller? fat finger?). I had other limit orders in for it at different prices, but none got filled Adding a tiny bit of VG each day. I'm glad I didn't go big all at once, but sometimes the opportunity passes quickly like Fairfax after the short report.

I think smaller companies still trade at decent valuations if you look around, but they are suppliers of parts to larger contractors. Taylor Devices makes the landing gear for predator and reaper drones and Optex makes optical devices for Bradley vehicles and howitzers. One is 12x trailing earnings and the other is 10x. Virtra had a small part of a defense contract issued to MSFT, but I don't know if that has been cancelled.

I'll be heading up to NYC for a few days starting tomorrow and will have my days free while my better half is at a work conference. If anyone is around and wants to meet up for coffee during the day, let me know.

I'm reducing risk so I've been selling off things to reduce my margin and my new purchases have been much smaller new positions that I'm studying instead of adding to larger existing positions. As a whole, they probably make up a mid size position, but most are very small while I study them and decide to fish or cut bait. Small placeholders in VG, TALK, VTSI and LFMD, while I study them, and very small adds to NEP, INSW and TAYD.

Well, are the people who are now advocating a sovereign wealth fund from the same party that was railing against getting equity in the banks that we bailed out during the great financial crisis? I thought we were supposed to just give them the money and expect nothing in return? Why is this not socialism now if the government is getting stakes in private businesses like the CCP? Do you remember how AWS sued because a government cloud contact was given to MSFT, and they claimed that it was because Trump hated Bezos. If you buy TESLA and not NIO for the fund, do you think that will lead to litigation? What about the bonds of a troubled bank? Are we going to give them money at par like Treasury to shore up their balance sheet, or drive a hard bargain to get the best return? Do you remember the Solar Company that went bankrupt? Would the fund invest in stuff like that? If a foreingn employer like Fiat and a domestic one like GM were both in trouble, would the fund invest in the one with the best return for the taxpayer, or would there be no politics involved? Who is going to manage this fund? Blackrock? Goldman? What about the fees? set by Congress or the lowest bidder, like Pentagon billing. Those Pentagon contracts aren't padded with hidden fees, right?

Bought a small amount of JOE, POWWP, and DEA.

I wonder if you can consider adding something to the list of cannibals if they have a big authorization but haven't bought back a lot of stock yet. Both Olin and Anterix have buybacks authorized for half of their market cap, but you need money to carry that out.

Small starter positions in NEP. The bid ask ratio is no longer heavilly skewed towards sellers dumping. Bid10.37 x 1100 Ask10.40 x 900 I think now that all people who invested for the fat dividend have sold when the dividend was cut to zero, it looks like a less risky play getting all these assets at a discount, and some nice FCF after they deal with the 2 CEPFs that are coming due by hoarding cash or selling rather than diluting to pay it off with shares. .

A few shares of DEA and POWWP in my Roth IRA for my fixed income basket.