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mwtorock

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  1. side question here: for long term puts, what strike to pick to be more cost effective? I usually buy leaps with strike around the spot to lower cost as compare to far out money options. Long term puts should be more or less the same? but put premiums are so high at the money, so i am thinking i should think about optimizing.
  2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/buffett-partner-charlie-munger-has-a-side-gig-designing-college-dorms-11556807102?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo Charlie has secret hobby of designing college dorms ;)
  3. Bluelinx updated slides yesterday. base case scenario of a bit sales growth (bear case recession and bull case SFH go above avg like 1.2m), with cost savings and reduced debt, the company could make $7-8 EPS in a couple years. BlueLinx_Pres_March2019.pdf
  4. Yep, special situations, like teacher Greenblatt calls it.
  5. Seen some comments about indexing and somehow imply that is passive investing. I think there is a huge difference. Indexing is a tool that you can use for passive investing. How many of you or the people you know actually gone through market cycles without getting in or out index funds? Ask all the equity fund outflows in december 2018 - it is pretty hard. If you try to get in or out of markets using index funds, to me it is not really passive investing. Real passive investing like buying BRK for years and not selling is very very hard.
  6. Just feels like a familiar scene that happened in Q4 2015. Market shakes a bit when central bank becomes less dovish. Just keep in mind though, average bear market is around -30%, we are about -15% here in the US equities, so even if it is a bear, how much downside is there? Next year is the famous third year of a presidential cycle, which has been almost always positive for US indices in recent history. I would not bet against that.
  7. Wouldn't it be interesting if TSLA bought FCAU or some other automaker and started selling the cars online bypassing the dealers. I'm not sure if there is some kind of contractual thing that would prevent it from doing that, I've never looked much into the auto industry and how it works (or doesn't work). Also it could offer its selfdriving feature on every car as a $5K option. Cars need maintenance. If you look at dealership's financial reports, like AN, they don't make much money from selling cars. Their biggest recurring rev is from maintenance rip offs. Margin was ridiculously high. Therefore I don't see the point of by-passing dealerships for selling cars. Also, doing this would piss off these dealership, and how would you handle after sale services? EVs theoretically should require less maintenance. No oil change, less brake replacements, etc. I think that is why Telsa went to the direct model.
  8. Hey Eric, chinese stocks are hot topic now. how about taking Travis back to talk about JD thoughts? Or anyone that is familiar with chinese stocks?
  9. -Do you think that Mr. Einhorn was/is right but was/is unable to wait long enough for his thesis to work out given the unusual preeminence of a population of momentum and price action investors and the larger proportion of passive indexing? Yep. i would definitely think that he is or was right at least on some of the ideas. But he was/is too confident that he chose to profit from the thesis by shorting the 'bubble' stocks. To me, shorting is very difficult with timing, size, etc. It is probably better to try to profit in a different way. -Have you considered that he may have been fundamentally wrong or that he may have overestimated his capacity to predict a shift in investor sentiment? Yes, probably. I dont personally know david, but i feel like he probably overestimated his influence especially in the short positions. Several years ago whenever greenlight 13F filing is up, the long positions would jump the next day, and whenever DE discloses a short, the stock would tank. Those days are long gone now, but i dont know if he recognize that. -What makes you say that bulls have total control of the market? I think it is a natural result of bull cycle. How many successful high profile shorts we heard in the last two years? We had short positions that made perfect sense fundamentally but got taken private at a price that probably only happens with rates near zero. And then you have momentum traders, growth investors and passive indexing continue to push the growth/momentum stocks higher. AMZN almost doubled in less than a year from 500B to 1T. it is probably still undervalued per my barber and my realtor, and they are buying it. They are probably going to make money, but they are not buying it for any fundamental reasons. I dont know if we are in a late stage of bull market, but i have seen more and more people care about price action or growth potential more than anything else, even in the circles of 'value investors'. I think until the trend changes, it is very hard to short a basket of stocks. And probably nobody knows when the trend would change.
  10. Maybe it is my wording that is misleading. The case in point is the short position of bubble basket, which consists of probably growth stocks and moment stocks like AMZN, NFLX, TLSA, and so on. The funds that short these names underperformed and had large outflows over last couple of years(looking at Greenlight), and the funds that long these names (including a few guys here) outperformed and hopefully had inflows. When the long funds get new money, they tend to buy the same kind of businesses/stocks, and put further pressure on other positions of the short side. even if DE is right about the bubble, it is a lot easier to benefit from the long side than from the short side. agree about the market since 2009 was not all smooth sailing. we even had EU crisis. and i was not talking about the broad market. the reference to 2009 was just that the bull market started then. one thing though, i dont know whether we can look at just pure equity funds as active has lost AUM to passive index funds or ETFs. for market cap weighted indices, the new inflow drives up the large cap growth names as their weights increase. also other types of funds may also buy stocks. for example, most of the macro funds i know of also have US stocks positions, and they tend to be following the trends a lot (from what i hear). so for things like AMZN that has been in a long term up trend, it naturally goes up because of moment trades or trend followers. that is until the trend changes.
  11. slightly off the topic, but after a long bull market since 2009, the bulls (bullish hedge funds plus index funds) have total control of the market now. they are getting more money under management and they buy more of the same stocks, then they outperform and again get more money under management. it goes on and on. the high profile shorts are getting squeezed. shorting is really hard.
  12. i try to check why the price goes down and whether that would change the thesis to invest in the business. that reevaluation process adds time gap between the price drop and the decision to sell, so it tends to help in my case to get rational or less emotional decisions.
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