Myth465

I think you guys are missing this key point. Kuppy on Gas. Harris, good report. I agree. I also think that natural gas is at or close to a bottom. Naturally one cannot predict when that will change but I would like to have a trade that allows me to benefit from a future increase in the price. I think its a 5 year trade. Simple and cheap is the type of trade I am looking for, and also one that is leveraged 2x, 3x, etc. to the price. Are there any ETFs out there?? Any other vehicles?? I want to stay away from natural gas companies because the leverage inherent in these companies can bust them. You’re a years early. Something like 30% of the nat gas in the US is now produced as a byproduct of liquids production. That ratio will increase in the future. These producers do not care about the price of nat gas. I’d really expect prices to drop from here and stabilize at a much lower level for a long period of time. You’ll eventually see most of the primary nat gas producers go bankrupt when their hedge books can no longer protect them. If I weren’t so focused on Mongolia, I’d be trying to find a way to play the bankruptcy of most of the US primary nat gas producers. Remember, in some cases, if they do not continue drilling wells, they lose their acreage. This will end with lots of bankruptcies. Only then, will we see higher prices, but not much higher than $3.00. The dynamics of the industry have changed for the longer term at least. http://adventuresincapitalism.com/askkuppy.aspx

In my opinion this makes Tilson look like a tool. I like Buffett but you cant just copy everything he does.

I should have sorted gas. I dont think this is done, not enough pain yet. Gas is still being produced heavily as a by product to oil... Hopefully a hot summer helps out.

In the same bout. Want to restructure the portfolio and move more into convertible shares, but dont want to take losses on big holdings. I usually just end up doing nothing..... It will sort itself out, one of these days.

Thanks T Bone, I looked at CHK-D, and thought it was priced a bit too high. I will have a look at this one instead.

Start with FTP with all plants running and a kicker on upside due to Chad. Then discount it for operational risk. Lets say FTP is worth $80 in 2016, with a risked value of $60. Then ask yourself which would you rather be in. I think FTP will be stuck until the price goes up. You can take the equity at a 25% discount to the convertibles, or you can take the convertible with a 6% yield over the next 4 year. I think it works out to almost the same should FTP go up, but the converts give you a bit of downside protection should things go wrong. Thats how I look at it.

Hey thanks. I hold FTP at $37. I could buy at 22% cheaper today, or could sell and buy the preferreds and get 6% for 4 years. Whats the ticker for the converts.

Very true on both accounts. Its all relative, and this is a broad reaching forum. I hope it stays that way.

Thanks for your sharing.

This guy wins for most complex background. Stay warm in Edmonton, its damn cold there, my rule is any place where you have to plug in a car is too cold...

We must add a Libertarian option. Now for everyone else do you put where you are at, or where you are from.

Cause ATPG has crap Management and this will either be worth $40 or $0. Plus you get paid 15% while they muck around, and have a tiny silver of protection should they lose the game of musical chairs (capex spending vs cash flow) they love to play. Until APTG trades for $33.3 (and it cant be force converted to 10/2014). ATPG has to pay me 15%. My basis at $50 will also be around $11. I get 15% till I have a 300% realized gain on my converts. My math may be off, but thats a great deal (let me know if I am missing something). ATPG is a lotto ticket, but its one I cant move on from. Look at the 5 year chart, they have been on the cusp of great success for the better part of 5 years. I was on that ride for 2 years, and left disappointed. I find it easier to bet they keep on the court, then that they make the playoffs. The assets are there, but can they be turned into cash flow. I dont know, and dont have to care as much with the preferreds.

Live - Melbourne Australia From - Houston Texas

Hartford looks quite interesting. Thanks for the link.

I dont see how you can like ATPG common, but not the preferreds. The converts let you buy ATPG at basically $12, and pay you 15% while you wait. I am not a big fan of ATPG, but think they will keep the lights on... Thanks for the link on the fund, I have been trolling a few convertible funds looking for ideas. dcollon Hartford looks interesting, I was going to look into the warrants after looking at a chart. With NXY do you just see it as a safe way to get 7%.

Reboting an old conversation. What do you guys like in this space. I am building a yield oriented portfolio, and have taken a liking to convertible and traditional preferreds. Here is what I like. FUR-D, fairly safe 9.25%, not convertible so no real upside unless people bid the price above PAR. Ashner is getting mid teens returns so I dont think there is much to worry about in terms of downside. ATPGP, hairy 15% yield. At 50% of par, you get 100% upside to par, plus it converts at $22. I bought against my better judgement. SDRXP, SD converts. Safe in my opinion and will convert in the money at some point (again in my opinion). I had a buy order for them, but believe they should come down to $118 or $120. Relatively safe 5%. Will also buy or look at SD's trust. The last 2 have done quite well. These guys have several lists which I will comb through once work lets up. http://www.quantumonline.com/incomelists.cfm

LOL.

This was on the daily ticker a few months ago, sounds like a good program.

Ala Paul Volker

Will Bernanke be my generations Paul Volker. Hated in the job, but revered after.

Listen to Parsad. I am doing the same, with that said I will acquire AIG once I get my head around it, and after I have raised more cash. I am waiting for a pullback though. Also keep in mind that you sound like everyone who missed the boat, they will likely get in while the smart money continues raising cash. So one last little bounce, then a move down on any decent bad news. You want to be the smart money, not the guy inching to get in. I would only get in if you see something cheap. I would probably buy AIG, ATSG, FTP, and POOSF with new capital. POOSF was the last thing I bought, and right now I am looking to raise cash. Those listed are cheap, but if things pull back, they will all move down.

Thats the flip side. I would only convert a plant if I could hedge gas out several years. I doubt anyone is hedging significant volumes of gas for anything less than $4. I doubt anyone is doing it for $2.50 or so. Lots of variables, and these arent overnight decisions or processes. Gas will rise, but I dont think it will be for another few years.

No not following the drillers though I have played them. Honestly the whole sector trades with oil. $40 oil and the drillers are hurting, right now they are doing what rational producers are doing, switching to oil from nat gas.

Its pretty funny though.

Hoodlum great post and thanks for the numbers. I have only studied SD in detail, but its similar there for many of the oil and gulf plays. Gas is produced as a by-product, and no one cares about the gas price. This is especially true with oil prices going up. I think gas will continued to be mindlessly drilled due to this. We have oil focused plays, wet gas, deep water gulf, all producing cheap gas. Then we have the mainly gas plays which need to be drilled to hold the leases. On the other side we have shale wells which decline quickly, and reduced drilling / curtailments. Finally we have new long hail Mary supply changes - LNG, Relocation of Petro Chemical industries, Hybrids / Plugins / Nat Gas cars and trucks, and electricity switching to gas from coal. Alot of moving parts, but my money is on gas staying cheap. Long enough for the majors to adjust plans, and for a few of the minors to go insolvent or get taken over. Housing will recover, but everyone calling for it has been off. Same with gas....