Myth465

The issue is people have been predicting a rally in gas for 3 years, ever sense it has fallen from $12 dollars or so. I think its good value now, but just dont see rationality yet. I dont see bankruptcies or take unders. My only prediction is things will get worse before they get better. Everyone is saying a rally is just around the corner and we have to drill for reason xyz. Small curtailments wont cut, and switching to liquids which produce gas as a by product wont either. We dont need all this gas, and some can be produced cheaply and profitably at $5. Until demand really kicks up without being matched by cheap supply, I dont see gas prices going anywhere. This will happen, but I doubt its a next year thing. I have been buying oil backed assets, and getting gas for free. Companies like SD, L, CHK or good acquirers with great balance sheets are where I would be.I wouldnt bet on a company that needs gas to rise over the next 3 years to stay afloat. I dont own CHK because its too gas focused, but they have oil backed assets.

The real question is when does it kick in. Is it 3-4 years away effective date wise. I think things will turn, just not anytime soon. Also I dont see $9, I see $4 or $5. Just too much gas to drill, too many rigs, and too many leases which need to be HBP.

I have been saying this for 3 years and have been right thus far. Nat gas will continue to suck wind. Just wait till everyone even the early value guys hate it. I still dont see any increased significant uses for gas, and still dont see restraint on the drilling side. All that wet gas, and liquids / oil still has plenty of natural gas. The miss lime play that SD is drilling is 50% nat gas... You also have the ultra deep wells drilled in the gulf...

Ya I saw that floating around google finance. It would put a damper on book value. Hopefully its just political talk. The government would be the loser if the tax assets were eliminated...

TX what about AIG have we missed the boat there, or is the ceiling at 29 a good place to buy? I am now compressed for time, so looking for long term compounders which can be left alone for a few years. AIG seems perfect for that given the Fed stack and asset spinoffs. It is also slightly less black boxy inmo. Though I am hoping for a pull back in the financials.

Nice. On the back of mine I engraved: Life is not about finding yourself. It's about creating yourself. I believe it's by George Bernard Shaw. What a great quote.

The economist audio edition, listen to about 90% of it each week. That plus Charlie Rose interviews, and wealth track and I am sorted.

I had no real issues with Ben Graham and ignored his posts. It did cost me a few minutes each day, which I have now gotten back. He did however annoy just about every member on the board, and eventually got a bit too far into left field. Glad to see he made you some cash, but I doubt he will be missed.

I have a deep lack of knowledge regarding investing (you should see some of my mistakes lol), but I am interested and post about it. I post analysis and ask questions, but I primarily just read. I read pretty much every post on the board via RSS except for the LVLT thread. You on the other hand only seem to have a passion for politics. You post, analyze, read, and ask questions but they are pretty much solely related to politics. Thats fine, but this is an investment board you know... I am on probably 4-5 other forums, but have never seen a member have no interest in the primary point of the forum, and only post about something else. Logically the person usually just finds a forum geared towards that topic, and either lurks or leaves. Its why I find your posting habits interesting. The moment anything remotely political pops up, you come in like clock work to give us the republican talking points. On most other topics you are ghost, like I said its interesting. The board has plenty of die hard liberals, and conservatives, but all the other ones are also interested in Investing and are primarily here for that. If you dont know why we are happy about the banning of Ben Graham, then you really only read the political threads....

Yes we do though I have never owned Berkshire. We do agree that its an excellent investment.

Congrats man. The board has been much more coherent over the last few days. It all makes sense. Post of the day. I thought he was back, when I saw this on the RSS feed. LOL.

Thats the funniest thing I have read all day....

Dammit you beat me to it. I will answer the question, no. Yankee only post on political threads which is unlike any other poster here. Even Ben Graham and that other guy post about LVLT...

Do you have any interest in investing or are you purely here for the political chat......... I would have put a question mark, but I know the answer.

LOL

Real time buy and sell calls cost extra. ;D Although, I'm still slightly underwater on L . . . watching that paint dry. LOL. I love Loews, just wise the Tisches were hungrier. How could you not have found value from 2008 - 2012... At least buy back a boat load of stocks in the subs. They just keep missing the board, should have bought more DO during DWH. I will own Loews one of these days but prefer cash these days. The value is there though.

The only ways I have found are to follow the past, or follow the present. You can look back analysis past calls and report and see if they did what they said, or you can buy a small position and see if they do what they say. I am pretty lazy so I buy a medium position and get burned or win out. With ATPG simply looking at the past would have told me everything. I recommend doing the leg work or taking a small positions. I have been doing this for 4 years, and know about 10 companies very well..

Congrats Zarley let me know what you buy next. :)

It will work out. I have learned quite a bit over the last year, but made little cash. With ATSG, Petrobank / Petrobakken, FTP, and WDC - I should have been buying hand over fist during those collapses. Going to restructure my portfolio to feature 25% cash, because these deals seem to come along a few times a year. If you know the company / management it should have been easy to step up and buy. I did buy a boat load of SD, so hopefully things play out. Liberty based on what you hold I would think you were doing quite well also.

Im kicking myself. I was early on WDC in late 2010 and managed to make no money on it. Almost bout huge at $26 due to flooding using leaps......

I believe there is already a Frontier thread. can these be merged.

Dude you read my mind, I have been watching Youtube videos of this guy all morning...

The cost of living in Sydney is now almost 50 per cent higher than that of global business centre New York Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/about-town/think-sydney-is-expensive-youre-right-20120214-1t3jl.html#ixzz1mL94uBTN Thats shocking. --- Melbourne is costly, as well. I have definitely noticed lol. While Melbourne basks in the title of the world's most liveable city (according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Global Liveability Ranking), the privilege of living in Melbourne comes at a high price. Melbourne has been ranked the eighth most expensive city in the world Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/about-town/think-sydney-is-expensive-youre-right-20120214-1t3jl.html#ixzz1mL9BAE4L

LOL that would have turned us on, and most other investors off. I think he made the right decision.