Myth465

Interesting way of dealing with volatility. Perspective....

Very good indeed. I think its an adequate substitute for the book. I was wondering if they would be able to pull off the story given the stats, but they did. They used the strong characters and basically told the story that was written in the book without the math. Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill both did a great job in their roles. What I liked most about the movie, is they really showed whats its like when you go against the grain. Being mediocre in a conventional way is a decent way to get paid, but being mediocre unconventionally will get you fired if you dont perform. Very good and inmo accurate portrait of this throughout the movie. It shows why most businesses have mundane strategies, and why most money managers basically own the index. I really enjoyed it. The only other movie I have seen that shows what its like going up against the grain is Creation. Watch Money Ball if you have the time, and you dont need to know anything about the book or baseball to enjoy it.

[amazonsearch]Everything Is Obvious[/amazonsearch] This book was recommended by JEast and I really enjoyed it. I recommend it to anyone who thinks common sense is the solution to all of our problems ( I was in that group a bit ago lol). The book shows that common sense isn't worth much, and is at best backwards looking once you have the answers. Really does a number on some of Gladwell's work / books regarding connectors and other topics. The book delves into many topics from Social problems, success in film / media / books / art, and even to business strategy planning. One chapter focused on showing how Sony and Apple had the same strategy for the Betamax and for the Ipod. The strategy worked for Apple, but not for Sony…. The book provides something new, and isnt just a rehash of how to buy $1 for 50 cents. It gives the reader another mental model to work with. Thanks for the recommendation JEast. Will get to the other book you talked about at some point as well.

This and his other 2 books have been on my list for a while. I plan to check them out sooner or later. Thanks for the review.

No prob let me know what you think when you get a chance to read it. Myth - I had read it when I posted and I liked his analysis and agreed with most of it. Plus he has the credibility that comes from being an insider for so long. I mean he is not a liberal bashing the right but one who has served the republican party for 28 years but just got fed up with the current political set up. Thanks again No prob. I found it quite interesting. I really liked when he said I might as well retire now, since we dont know where that is going... With all that said I like what the right is doing. They are offering a choice to the public, and being honest about it (brutally honest lol). America needs a come to Jesus moment, we have to decide what type of society we want, and I am excited about that debate and the next election. Canada, Australia, and the UK seem to have principles that both parties can agree on, but we have 2 completely different American visions which need to be sorted. I dont think America likes what the right is selling, and ultimately I dont see it being very successful, if it is then a nation deserves the government it gets and we will all be better off knowing where the citizens who care enough to vote want the country to go.

Yah I agree. Let's just crash and get it over with. Yes, I wish my other wishes worked as well. A new car would be nice, I cant wait to wake up tomorrow lol. Be careful what you wish for? ;D

Thats been my issue, rolling over leaps is very important. I hold a few 2012s which have me but mostly hold 2013s. I am waiting for 2014s to do any serious buying or tax selling. Adding time to the mix is quite interesting. You can even time your catalyst correctly but get killed because your leaps are up during a day like today.....

Myth--on this, we can totally agree. If I was your age, I would be fleeing the country as well.... Speaking of....did you see that in NZ, they do a physical on you, blood work, BMI, etc. , and if you don't make the cut, you can't immigrate and become a citizen. That's brilliant! If the government is going to provide your health care, you only get to come in if you are healthy. How much would that save our government if we implemented that here in the USA before you got Medicare/Medicaid. Situation is not good right now but I don't agree with the notion that it's bad enough to consider fleeing or whatever you want to call. USA has so much of inbuilt advantage due to system in place that it will overcome the problems. By system I don't mean this bickering of two parties. I meant over all USA still attracts best minds from outside due to obvious reasons and it allows people to do many things if they are upto it. I went to one of the best schools in India for undergrad and I never heard anyone planning to migrate or go for higher studies to Australia or UK or any other country. May be it was just due to tradition but thats what I saw. Many students go to other contries but most of them are not from the best schools in India. Just my observations and I might be wrong in deducing anything based on that. I think USA has lots of advantage which will make it good place for long time. I might be off target here but I feel that people who grew up here don't really see some of the advantages. I think you have a point, our immigration in general should be a bit more targeted based on skills but there are downsides. I read somewhere that Australia has a permanent upper class that wont assimilate or learn the customs, and the US has an underclass. Then the person said which one is smarter and ..... For all our faults I love the USA and am leaving really because I am young and have always wanted to live abroad. We will overcome this, but it will take a while in my opinion. I wouldnt choose to be born anywhere else but its a big world and I want to see and experience a bit more of it before I am old and grey. --- If a person cant see that the Republicans are uncompromising then there is not much a post by me will do to change that. I mean we are discussing another government shutdown on the 31st of the month, less than 2 months after a sovereign downgrade...... --- Also again I agree with Cardboard, Clinton had an interview on Yahoo Finance Daily Ticker where he talked about Green energy. He was like it would put millions to work, and pay for itself. He really sold it and showed leadership that was hard to argue with. He also talked the 30 year attack on Government by the right and showed how no other country has that attitude. I think $1 billion or $500 million to the treasury from Buffett would have furthered his point but I guess its his money ....

I even feel the same way when I see people saying "That isn't value investing. This is value investing." At a certain point, it doesn't matter if you call it a hill or a mountain, just give me the topography. This is probably the second most annoying thing. LOL AZ Value - Regarding short term leverage and options. I guess the risks are the same. You have invoked time into the equation. I believe most of my valuations / investment calls are correct, but that does not mean they will pay out correctly time wise, especially given whats going on. I had revamped my investment strategy though it will take time to get there. The strat is to focus on options, warrants, and deep deep value equity - but to also hold 50% cash unless investments are trading at 25% - 30% on the dollar. This allows you to double down a few times without getting killed. Options will be more of a way to hold more cash, and less of a way to juice returns. Also I will probably be taking positions around 5%-10% and will trim my winners a bit more. I have had stocks make up 25% of my port get cut in half 3-4 times. It gets old and one cant effectively double down on a 15% position no matter what their conviction is. Those are some of the main changes, but as I said it will take quite a bit of time to get there. I plan to hold my cash now until things clear up a bit. We will probably rally Fri or Monday on some BS announcement, but I am holding until we get some market clarity.

I think the deleveraging will continue for another 5 years or so give or take a few. What I am referring to though is this EU Greece default stuff, and the Congressional issues on this side of the pond. Both sides have been doing nothing about their respective crisis and I am happy that the market is now forcing action. I would like the EU to decide what they are going to do and do it. I would like the American public to have the debate concerning if shutting down the government every other week is really a viable strategy. I would like both to happen over the next few months, instead of over the next few years regardless of what it does to my portfolio.Just tired of hearing about it. LOL The news hasnt changed in 2 years for Europe and 6 months in the US. It gets a bit old....

I have been thinking about hiding out in all my owner managers stocks lol. Looking at FUR, L, LUK, and a few others. Did you just buy based on price to value or is there something else you see?

Humm ERICOPOLY looks like your investment has paid great dividends. I am guessing the kids really like it as well. I will be heading to Melbourne for at least a year, but likely longer. Will have to pop by Sydney at some point to check out that great family house you talk about from time to time. Hopefully the lucky country stays lucky for a little bit longer. They have issues, but at least from here it looks like there government actually works..... I visited Sydney and Melbourne last year, and the cost of living was much higher than I expected! On the other hand, the food is wonderful, people are great, and every random coffee shop is like the best coffee shops in Los Angeles. I also love the "hotels" with no guests and a lot of beer. Amazing quality of life. Yes I really enjoyed the quality of life, and am quite pleased that the exchange rate has dropped to 99 cents a few days before I go. Sure beats 1.09. No prob let me know what you think when you get a chance to read it. As do I, our system no longer works.....

I think the Berkshire bet is quite simple. He likes the equity but wants downside protection.....

I think Buffett is fairly simple. He is telling you Joe Six pack not to do this or that for your own good, nothing more nothing less. Ever rule could or should be broken at some point depending on the circumstances. The key is knowing when to break said rules, and also knowing why said rules exist. I wasnt smart enough to learn the leverage lesson, and went into 2008 with none callable short term leverage. I came out well enough, but it is something I wouldnt recommend anyone do. I wrote several new rules regarding Leap positions, based on the last few months of turmoil. I will survive and hopefully thrive going forward should I head those rules.

I liked oec2000's post because it was done by a man who has thought for himself instead of telling everyone what Buffett says... AZ_Value I have always said watch what Buffett has done and also for every Buffett quote there is an equal and opposite quote / action. I wish we had more independent thought though.

Really how did you swing that with family and all. Hopefully its as good as I remember. I am walking into a housing Bubble and likely China slow down but you only live once and its not like things are all peachy over here. Hopefully that lesser dirty shirt fits better....

I agree, will read this weekend. Munger one thing is for sure, you were right we are in for more pain and a drowning boat can take everything down....

Call me crazy but I am quite happy. Happy as can be. I only have 8% cash, but am quite tired of this. Europe needs to do something, and it seems as though the can has been kicked into a wall. When offered a fork in the road you cant keep going straight. I would prefer a down 20% blood bath to 6 more months of this BS.

I have made good use of this site. Will let you guys know how it works out. I leave on Sat.......... With that said ragnarisapirate is correct, the left is deeply annoyed with Obama. The professional left (Cornell West, Amy Goodman, Bill Maher, and many others have all, but given up) and the amateur members of the base seem demotivated. The right is as well, so is the populous movement, and the banksters / capitalist. Given all of that he is doing something wrong. Something very wrong. You shouldnt be disliked by all factions, Bush always had his base. Unfortunately I believe this is correct with regard to alot of posters. I still like Munger even though he is on the other side of the aisle. 8) With that said Cardboard has been one of the most rational members of the board, and has provided great insight for me at least regarding politics. He has inmo adequately articulated what the none crazy ones on the right see in the situation. I will agree Obama is community organizing and not leading, and I hardly know where he stands on anything these days. With that said he is herding cats. Angry, bitter, irresponsible cats whose only real goal is seeing him not get a second term. I also agree with you that I dont see this years batch of election slogans selling well (4 more years, I am the least bad options, it could have been worse) selling so well to those that put him over the top. Obama has failed and Hilary inmo would have done much better, but ets not pretend the other guys deserve or are even qualified to get on the court. With that said I highly recommend this article to anyone with 5 minutes to spear. I think the guy is dead on. http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-reflections-gop-operative-who-left-cult/1314907779

My issue is you guys seem slightly one sided.... Just slightly.....

Big mistake. Isnt he just executing what they have already greenlighted. HP is turning into Yahoo, and is being pushed around by a cranky Mr Market. If I was a CEO, would I really go work for them?

I cant argue with you but I think there are 2 different discussions going on. Many are saying he is better than most, and you are saying where is the Alpha. Both of you are right inmo. I dont invest in funds primarily because I would rather try my hand and potentially lose half of my money, then sit around getting 2% a year. Its not worth it because as you said I would just buy telecom stocks or a basket of large cap value and collect 3% - 8% in dividends. Holding them for a decade and opportunistically selling would do better than most managers. With that said you have to compare him to the benchmark and that fortunately or unfortunately leaves him better than most..... Perhaps you your thoughts say more about the industry then him as a manager. ---- I agree with your basic sentiment though, that value investors do get a bit too hung up on investors who market a bit, knew Buffett, knew Graham, teach at Columbia, or ..... They also get a bit too hung up on what someone says instead of watching what they do. Perhaps that can be said of any group though...

No prob, and LOL. Also I have moved to qualitative. I find its more useful then endless quantitative analysis. As Buffett said you know value when you see and dont need to know the exact weight to know if someone is fat.

One thing is for sure you 2 have some high end friends (what the hell do you start with to lose $1 billion, has anyone written what that guy did exactly). If I listed who I know and what they have done, Parsad might ask me to stop posting lol. Carry on... moore_capital54 - I see where you are coming from and had similar thoughts about Tilson, strangely enough he has grown on me over the last 2 years. I dont invest with him, but his appearances have gotten better. I think he has a bit of convention, he was out in front on BP and that was a hairy one.

Hey Capital do you think someone who doesn't know anything about investing would enjoy it. I am taking a friend who knows nothing about investing, and likely nothing about baseball? Its one of those movies that could be really hard to pull off so I was wondering if it flowed well as a story. They have a great cast though, and Billy Bean is a funny / interesting guy.