Myth465

I like Ackman and would vote for him. do you all think his dad was asking him to run indirectly.

Yes lol. I cant trade really, unless I stay up late, but one added bonus is reading the board / news is much faster. Everything is in when I wake up. I am still not sure if the Asian / Oz markets respond to the US market, or if they lead lol. So far so good on Oz just waiting for summer to kick in here.

I have thought for a while. It also seems like most of the most powerful people in the world genuinely like him and enjoy his company, its a good look.

Charlie Rose will always provide the best Buffett Interview. Its like 2 old friends chatting. Not the most attractive one though. I like that he addressed the why dont you write a check, and the I dont like you anymore because you dont agree with me in public...

Australia would be defeated in 15 minutes, maybe 20. No camps would be needed... One thing the US can still do more effectively then anyone else is kick ass, occupying is a different conversation though.....

Buffett is a class act and when he passes it will be a sad day. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/147308/buffett-on-the-economy-taxes-and-obama About 5 minutes in he talks about his outspokenness and political activeness. He was the president of the young republicans club at 17.....

Sachs is on point, despite what you think about his poverty stats. He is really on point regarding the gimmicky stimulus that we are doing. http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11925

Frankly you arent worth the time lol, too small, too much paperwork. Perhaps make a grant to states, to do that on the local level. Look at all those Government buildings and massive buildings in NY, Chicago, and Downtowns all over the US. With that said thats what I would do Ericopoly. You could fund it with $1 billion, lever it 10 to 1, and make it fully backed by the US Government with First lean rights / terms for none repayment or default. Sachs is on point, despite what you think about his poverty stats. He is really on point regarding the gimmicky stimulus that we are doing. http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11925

I am on a work and holiday Visa at the moment, just got approved for Sponsorship via Victoria state. Once that visa comes in it will last 5 years, I think then I can apply for PR if I am still down under. Eric I love that I can play the currency game. I like that it went from 1.08 to 99 right before I came. Quite nice. Now if we could just get 75 cents for a bit.

that was my big fear with my visa. Getting it in before things go south and they go negative on Immigration (or more negative). I dont think Oz will indefinitely be the lucky country but think its a nicer more interesting (something new for me) place to wait out the downturn. They do have their own issues tied to China and commodities which could both be hit pretty hard.

What bout the politics of it all.

The question is how effective is the multiplier effect, especially given the likelihood that some portion of spending leaks out as payment for inputs that are imported. The problem I have with Koo's analysis is we don't know how the counterfactual would have played out. We do not know, for example, whether Japan would have fared better if they had simply let the forces of creative destruction work. The downturn would have been severe but it might have been followed by an equally sharp rebound. There have been cases of emerging market economies that have had to take tough IMF medicine (Latam and South East Asian countries in the 80s and 90s) in response to debt problems. I believe they experienced balance sheet recessions too. These countries were not afforded the luxury of stimulus spending; instead fiscal austerity was prescribed; yet they eventually recovered in relatively short order in some cases. If Richard Koo had discussed these other cases and explained how they fit into his theory, it would make his analysis much more compelling. As it is, his work stands on a sample of one - it sounds logical and plausible but it is far from proven imo. I have no problem with stimulus spending per se. It is fine if you are doing it from a position of fiscal strength (which is what Singapore and HK did in 1998); my concern is when you try to do it from a weakened position because of the unintended consequences that may develop. The beauty of Koo and Europe is you do have counterfactuals. Austerity was tried in Japan in various administrations, and is being tried in Europe and the UK. Not surprisingly a cut in government spending leads to recession, less tax revenues, more spending on entitlements, and higher Debt to GDP levels because of less GDP. His argument is pretty convincing if anyone cares to listen to it. I have yet to see where full blown austerity has work or even been politically viable. Seems to me that the people eventually rise up and occupy wall street, or some European square. Economics has a hint of politics in it, and Austerity fails the politically via test in most places. The only place it appears to be going ok is Ireland and Lewis thinks its because they have a culture which has suffered for hundreds of years. Its clean and neat and sounds great but does it work, and more importantly will it work her? I dont think Americans have the stomach for it but we shall see. Obama is wrong or off on so many things, but is the one standing between the Elites and the pitchforks, I think he will get out of the way if its politically viable for him. --- Eric think of a Roof. Your house needs a new roof and a bathroom remodel. Your roof leaks and you have a bathroom from the 1965. Would you get the updates when a huge percentage of construction workers were offline and willing to take lower rates, and when interest rates were at 2% for 10 years. Or would you wait for more expensive happy times. The stuff has to get done either way, and your neighbor took a chance and his roof fell in last week. Also what if the city had a fund and you had to spend money to help the out of work workers. Wouldnt you rather put them to work doing things that needed to be done anyway. That is what the Gov is facing inmo. We have crappy roofs and bathrooms. That need to be fixed, we can continue to transfer money to out of work workers or can pay them to fix things when we have cheap salaries and low rates.

Buffett has explaned this. He would buy $1 for 90 cents if he was certain of the value of the $1. MOS is a direct correlation to Certainty.

Cash feels so nice right now ;). I am waiting until I see the whites in their Eyes or until Germany capitulates / grows balls and kicks Greece out and uses the funds on their banks / Italy / Spain. Running out of ammo. Nothing has been resolved or addressed thus far. Anything else would be imprudent for me. My equities have been cut in 1/3rd so missing 15% or so is nothing. I can catch the bottom 10% and miss a bit, and know my cash was well invested. Been buying the dip for 2 months and its been quite painful. The cash will get spent though, some guys hold cash forever.....

Unfortunately his political predictions are likely right lol. We will like get a GOP win, tax cuts, rate cuts, and more contraction. I feel like Peter Schiff, its weird having the politics and economics mostly right, but not having the proper portfolio positioning lol.

Its very interesting here. Much flatter society. The average man makes $20 an hour, or $40k. You can be poor with dignity here. It seems like the only real difference between Working and Middle class is overseas vacations, nicer / closer accommodations / and higher quality beer / wine. They do tax the hell out of alcohol, and everyone I know is huge into Gambling / Betting / Sport. Some of the biggest drinkers and gamblers in the world. Very interesting place thus far. As I said the koolaid has been spread around and people are starting to buy all of the ideological rhetoric in the US. The poor will rise up, when they feel like they have nothing to lose. The Right inmo has no dream, no goal. They simple want it all. I dont see what they are willing to give up. Also you missed no taxes on Gambling - the little guy gets his there as well lol. Unemployment here though is weird, you can basically be on it forever is what I have heard.....

I dont think we need to the moon type infrastructure. Simple stuff like loaning governments the money to fix bridges, roads, and the like would work. Focus on required work which must be done, just pull that demand forward a few years. Maybe 50% federal and 50% muni bond type programs available to the states. Requires that they directly hire workers at the lowest wages possible. Reduces unemployment, improves infrastructure on the cheap, vs. waiting for a booming economy and hire tax revenues. Also low hanging fruit like a bank which finances winterizing old buildings and homes. Simple improvements that pay for themselves and only require someone who can commit to long term 10 year financing. Assumptions need to be conservative and savings real. Perhaps direct savings could be received from the power company to the bank for repayment. Introducing rail and other things is a sure fire way to turn this into a partisan fight vs. a jobs / recovery act. Blodgett must have just interviewed Koo and translated his prescription into Joe Six Pack Speak.

I agree with every word here is the video version. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/wrong-economy-fix-181308391.html;_ylt=Ah0UYaVrrORbCFJn8yKTe.0p2YdG;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NzRyZGk3BG1pdANEVCBJbmRleARwb3MDMQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCbG9nSW5kZXg-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpMm9iMzh1BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANibG9nBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3 Unfortunately I agree with his prediction regarding politics.

Tim I wish we all agreed on this. When I was a conservative this was my basic philosophy. Increase opportunities, and provide a net (very basic, doesnt include cable or a cell phone) to those that slip through. Unfortunately the Right inmo has gone to the Dog eat dog and Corporate Corny types of the world. The left has its issues though.....

All good points. Perception though is typically reality and with 20% unemployment / underemployment perception doesnt look too hot right now. Its just not the time to be saying you guys have it good and us rich are suffering which is typically what you hear if you watch the news. I believe Buffett is much smarter than given credit, and he is interested in self preservation. Look at Egypt for how this will play off if people perceive they arent getting a fair shake. I have said it before, financial Darwinism will quickly be followed by actual Darwinism.

Yep Hete should be on the phone with DHL redefining the terms of the note which amortizes, to allow buybacks . I would like to see all FCF going to a buyback, screw new planes at these prices.

BargainValueHunter the beauty of being 90% in is you are good either way. If it goes down tax losses and time to put the 10% to work. If I wake up and we are up 10% on Government printing, bailouts, and EU agreements then great paper gains. Its interesting Europe is the largest economy in the world, but I think we are pretty clear from this mess, and Chanos thinks the US is best positioned to deal with a China collapse... Well I want to use my cash, take my tax loses and find another hobby for a year or so. Either it comes back or life goes on lol. Also hope we stay down until Jan, I have a roth conversation I want to do and my basis is going lower each day :). Will be interesting to see what happens politically with Greece though, the music has been playing for 2 years and as Buffett said if they kick hard enough it may go off the road. Pain is love I guess, my only saving grace is markets around the world and especially in Europe are feeling the heat more than here. I hope Germany gets its comeupens and pays through the noise to bail out Greece and EU banks, or gets a sky high currency that crashes its exports. They have inflicted far too much uncertainty on the world....

In general terms I dont see how you argue the simple fact that one side wants only spending on the table and one wants spending and revenue on the table, with a strong focus on spending. Specifics are tough, you must first agree on things in principle / in general. Ultimately it doesnt matter, the American people will have to decide one way or the other. I dont think the public wants all spending, and who ever lays out specifics will get wacked inmo. They best agree and do it together, but that wont happen. Its easy to talk about cuts, but you will be demonized if you implement them. Democrats are their own worst enemies. Unleash the GOP is my motto, my vote is 80 percent of Americans dont want to live in Paul Ryan's world, regardless of how pure and clean it is economically. We will also eventually have unrest... All this talk of wealth, work, double, triple, and all that is a waste of time. Bills have to be paid, lets just find an efficient and progressive (thats probably anti American now lol) but not restrictive way to do it. I am done arguing morally when it comes to taxation. Everyone has a reason for stiffing someone else with the bill.

When do you see capitulation, close or a ways away. I think we need 1 or 2 more blood bath days.