JRM

How are you buying? What would you recommend?

lol, the Petroleum Engineering curriculum at my alma mater was akin to industrial engineering or engineering management. A faux engineering degree for those that couldn't hack real engineering. The punchline was that when I graduated they were making six figure salaries right out of school. Most of my Petroleum Engineering friends were looking for jobs within' 4 years of graduation, though. I can't argue with the value of field experience.

0.1% of Bitcoin owners own 30% of all the Bitcoins. Doesn't sound very decentralized and distributed to me. Still waiting to buy directly from Michael Saylor.

Most of Germany's nuclear plants are GE BWR's, if I remember correctly. Various vintages, but many share the same design as the reactors in Fukushima. They are expensive to operate, and extremely expensive to de-commission since the plant secondary is exposed to radiation. If they didn't already shut down it would make sense to keep them operating. Not sure at this point. Not as cut and dry as most people think.

Why doesn't anybody talk about re-processing spent nuclear fuel rods in the United States. There is an enormous source of energy filling up spent fuel pools across the US that consume energy to keep them cool. The excuse, I'm told, is around security concerns for the re-processing facilities. Seems like a bad reason to me. There seem to be a lot of people who are pro-nuclear now just because they're long uranium. Lots of tourists who don't know anything about nuclear energy. The Sprott uranium trust is a good example of mis-allocation of capital. Paying money to store uranium with an unclear ability to sell it someday.

All of the nuclear plants in the US are 1950\1960's technology, designed in the 1970's, and brought online in the 1970's\1980's. The cost is due to the number of people required to run the plant, both on-site and offsite. As mentioned previously, the amount of paperwork and testing required to maintain\replace a safety related component is extensive. This "paperwork pedigree" may be performed by a contractor or third party who doesn't directly work on-site. Not to mention almost everyone on-site is making six figures. Licensed operators are making $130k+ with overtime easy. When I worked at a nuclear plant (5 years ago) we were in the $35 per megawatt range for a single unit. If we were operating in a de-regulated environment there would be a lot of pressure to shut us down.

It's amazing how naive people are and how ignorant our leaders seem to be. More oil production in the US does not necessarily mean lower gas prices at the pump. That is what Biden wants, after all. If the windfall profit tax goes through (it won't) then people will likely view it as a good thing (pay for vote). Taxing the oil producers will have the obvious impact of discouraging US production and we'll be left importing oil at whatever price OPEC decides. Meanwhile we'll ship our SPR and natural gas oversea so Europe can pretend to be energy independent from Russia.

Bitcoins value is as a transfer mechanism. Maybe the best one created so far. It is not a currency (too volatile), and so far not digital gold.

I listened to that podcast. The guy is a bull market legend, but the dude seriously said "technicals work really well because there is no fundamental value" when talking about Bitcoin. lol

I won't make it larger than a 1% position until I'm buying directly from Michael Saylor.

I guess. You could spend hours going down the Tether rabbit hole. That alone is enough to give me pause. The asymmetric upside case for Bitcoin stands on a fragile house of cards that could collapse. Will it collapse? Who knows. I'd rather wait to buy Amazon after the 90% drop (after the .com bubble collapse).

https://concoda.substack.com/p/the-crypto-elites-are-plotting-a?s=r

Some info on mineral resources needed for the green energy transition. This is form another thread: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions Some interesting executive summary highlights: -Since 2010 the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50% as the share of renewables in new investment has risen. -40% to 50% reduction of silver and silicon used in solar panels since 2010 -Average of 16.5 years from discovery to first production of new mine -Total lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of EVs are around half those of internal combustion engine cars on average, with the potential for a further 25% reduction with low-carbon electricity.

That's a very polite way of saying I'm full of it. All figures I'm seeing now are 25%. The point still stands, though.

So if there 280 million vehicles in the US and sales are at a rate of 15-20 million per year how does replacing the entire fleet happen quickly? Like I said, my next vehicle will be a hybrid. It makes sense for me. For most people a 20 year old Camry will have a lower cost of ownership per mile. I also wonder about residual value comparisons between a 10 year old EV and a 10 year old ICE. A Tesla with bad battery is essentially worthless.

I can't find the chart I'm thinking of which breaks down oil use by application. The main takeaway is that gasoline use by passenger vehicles doesn't comprise a big piece of the pie. I feel like I've posted a link somewhere here before, I'll keep looking. I believe the chart was specific to the US. It looks like globally it is estimated that about 25% of oil is used for gas in passenger vehicles. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10308

Even if every car in the world was replaced with hybrid\EV overnight the contribution to oil consumption would represent less than 10% of total demand. I've read that it takes 100 barrels equivalent of energy to create the battery for one Tesla. The average age of passenger cars in the US is 12 years old. No way that flips to 100% hybrid/EV by 2030. Not possible.

How quick do you think this transition occurs? I don't think it happens quickly. Also, oil for car\small truck transportation is less than 10% of total oil consumption. Not sure electrification is going to move the needle that much. With that said, my next vehicle purchase will be a hybrid. The IEA agrees, we haven't reached peak oil demand, and likely won't for another 15 years or so. Even longer for natural gas. Unless fusion reactors become a thing, of course.

If they can't pass gun control measures and cannabis safe banking I doubt this will pass. Just another signaling opportunity to say "look, the republicans don't care about you." Hopefully people are smart enough to see through the bs, but I'm not optimistic. Maybe we need to tax the windfall profits from JNJ, Moderna, and Pfizer.

I meant to sell some covered calls on my XLE position today, but I accidentally bought some weeklies instead. I thought about undoing the trade, then decided I actually like the added position. My subconscious is looking out for me.

You can feel free to mail me any of this worthless metal you may have. Will pay for shipping.

Maybe check with Hunter Biden? Aside from banning fracking on federal lands, congressional mandates have made it even more difficult for new pipeline projects and expansion projects. Existing pipelines are invaluable for the next 10-15 years.

Now do silver. Half of silver demand is for industrial purposes. Should go ballistic.

He's a good follow, and has been hot lately. I cringe when I read his takes on the nuclear power industry. He clearly doesn't know what he's talking about even if he is right on uranium. That's true of most uranium bulls I come across, though. If he's more of a high level macro trend guy, that's fine. He also took a swing at RSX right before it went dark. Nobody gets them all right.

The real risk is that Russia\China\India and probably others don't want to exchange petro for dollars. Why would they need the USD? The Ukraine situation would make more sense if this is the end game.