JRM

I think you missed the mark on realtors. The problems are: 1. The higher the potential commission the greater the gap between commissions paid and value-add 2. Misalignment of incentives for BOTH buyer and selling realtors 3. System that is protected by massive lobbying and blackballing of outsiders

ok, I'll bite. My disclaimer is that the areas I should be most knowledgeable I seem to have the least conviction. I have an educational background in electrical and computer engineering. I worked with analog an digital control systems at a nuclear plant for 9 years. I earned my PE license in Power Systems. I also have a Masters degree in finance. My current job is related to risk management on the natural gas side of the business. I am familiar with regulations for natural gas distribution and transmission systems. I should note that Berkshire Hathaway owns the longest NG pipeline in the country. I'm an avid reader and enjoy books about corporate stories as well as behavioral finance/economics/psychology. I'm here to learn and hopefully have something meaningful to contribute here and there.

The website for the USO fund has giant red banners with a warning for investors to read the prospectus. The prospectus is the biggest CYA I have ever seen. http://www.uscfinvestments.com/uso-alerts

Has anyone said realtors yet? The National Association of Realtors is consistently one of the top two lobbying spenders every year. I'm not saying they don't serve a purpose, but the incentives are very misaligned.

There are a lot of moving parts. I have a hard time forecasting what things look like 5-10 years from now. I think of Enron a lot, who was 10 years early to the game of broadband and video on demand. Their vision was correct, just early. I'm wondering if we see something similar with the push to renewables and distributed generation; especially if the economy is disrupted. When you factor in things like interest rates and inflation/deflation I really have no clue. Electric distribution companies are too difficult for me right now.

If you hate money and happen to be long to any oil exposure, buying puts on USO seems like a decent hedge. This thing looks ready to explode if the futures market collapses again (not very likely?). I'm thinking the retail Robinhood investors may exit this trade as soon as they see what happens with a month or two of contract rollovers. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit. I bought some Jan 21 $10 strike puts. Anybody looking at similar setups with options? Any better potential hedges out there?

An interesting aspect to many electric utilities is the few large industrial customers subsidize the many small retail customers. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. My guess large rate increases will be difficult to push through. These are the main risks I see: Hyperinflation is the enemy of regulated utilities. Regulatory lag means capex costs more than what can be recovered in rates. Look for utilities that invested heavily in the last 10 years vs utilities that have assets in need of major capex. Regulated utilities are earning more than they ever have right now. The spread between allowed rates of return (usually around 10%) and cost of capital is at historic highs. If I was a regulator I would go after this margin. Also, tax cuts were passed onto the customer. Tax increases would be passed on as well. Many of the utilities I'm familiar with sport a 20+ P/E ratio. Historic average P/E is 10. I don't think its a slam dunk.

How do we know he is selling now ? He reduced his position by about 15% as of Berkshire's last 13f filing.

You could give the money away to a worthy charity.

There was a really good interview with Chanos on the Inifinite Loops podcast hosted by Jim O'Shoughnessy. I think he makes a lot of sense, and come across well.

I like Chanos, but he's kinda like the Motley Fool. He is short a lot of companies at any given time, even though you only hear about Tesla and the other popular names. When you're short 50-80 companies and one hits, you can say, "see, I totally nailed it!" I do listen to what he says, and mostly agree with him.

That quote you posted is where I got the $60 breakeven from. I understand that's fully loaded with the dividend, etc. I say it looks like GM because they debt is rising, capex is decreasing, and dividend is the sacred cow. In 2008 there were a lot of investors that stuck with GM because "it still pays a good dividend." I'm betting a lot of XOM shareholders are telling themselves the same thing now based on some of the comments I'm seeing on SA.

A better question is which supermajors don't survive this, if any? My guess is XOM. $60 per barrel break even and maintaining the dividend? looks like GM circa 2006.

What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whitney-tilson-congratulates-himself-calling-market-bottom

So lie about the reported numbers?

This deal does not fix the demand crush due to the coronavirus. I doubt we see $50 oil anytime soon, at least not for a sustained period. Remember there is a ton of oil sitting in storage currently that must be worked through.

What? Go tell NYC they're winning. Tell New Orleans everything is fine because they're coming in better than projected. Maybe wrecking the economy is helping to "beat" the model in many areas. If my model says 10M people will die in the U.S and only 1M people die then it's a grand success?

this is epic: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/softbank-is-said-to-plan-to-abandon-wework-investor-deal

backing up the truck on KMI. I'm going down with the captain.

and by yesterday I mean Friday.

I bought some TGP preferreds yesterday. Wouldn't be surprised if they (the preferred shares) get bought out.

How much longer are regulated utilities going to be allowed to over-earn? They have never made more money between the agreed rate of return (typically close to 10%) and the cost of capital. When taxes were lowered they were required to pass the savings on to the customer. When rate makers get wise they will go after this margin, too. Back in the day utilities were a growth industry. It started with refrigeration and then air conditioning. Maybe electric vehicles will be the next great growth phase, otherwise we are in a flat to declining load growth. I tend to think EVs will be the next growth phase. With that said, PEs of 30 are probably not justified for your average utility even with low interest rates. I wonder how many pension funds are getting annihilated right now?

Kinder Morgan has heavy insider buying as well as ViacomCBS.