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vince

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  1. Agree with MV, Siri is a solid business, it has some pricing power, it has content that others cannot replicate, and it owns the dashboard real estate for a long time. Penetration of Siri radios into new cars is still growing and churn is still falling. Those are pretty strong indicators that the business is resilient, people have been talking about the competition for many years and although I see potential headwinds farther down the road I see quite a few tailwinds over the next 5 plus years. In a few more years there will be 200 million Siri radios in cars on the road and they will attack the used car opportunity aggressively. They have also started rolling out their new platform which will give them all the data on their customers listening habits, they have been almost blind up until recently in that regard. And Malone is quietly gaining control of the music ecosystem which could possibly be very very interesting further down the road. But the real kicker is you are able to buy Siri at a 35% discount to net asset value or roughly 12 times economic earnings. So the free cash flow yield is quite a bit higher than it looks. If Liberty can get their hands on a large cash flow and buy back lots of stock at this discount, it's going to be a safe and highly probable home run. Just my 2 cents
  2. Based on some words by Maffei I think those investors hoping for the discount to close quickly may need more patience. I don't think that 80% will necessarily close the discount or even dent it. My preference is for it to take at least a couple more years as long as Siri continues to grow at least modestly. This will produce a fantastic result and give more time to the liberty team to take advantage of that discount.
  3. I have been having same issues and right now i cannot get to the main page, only a page that shows the most recent posts under the title "info center".
  4. Having owned BAM for some time now - the major insight I picked up that I did not realize: Many competitors (large banks) have completely exited this area, which I did not realize. I've always worried about too much dumb money coming in, just like the re-insurance business. There is plenty of competition - but the exit of these banks is significant and a strong advantage in my mind. The demand side of the business is pretty obvious, but the supply side is where my concerns are.. -- This business is not as easy as it may look from the outside. The other insight - Bruce Flatt is low key, but confident, and extremely shareholder oriented. He refused to be put on the pedestal with Berkshire and Buffett as an equal - in spite of an admiring and friendly crowd. This CEO is great. One important comment: In his mind, the value of the asset management side of the business exceeds the entire market cap of the company right now. In that regard, you just have to ask yourself is - if you trust the guy and is he competent? Don't be worried. What part of the business are you referring to when you say the banks have exited this area?
  5. Spek, you picked a good year to start your hobby. I agree with and am aware of the potential negatives of "too much" analysis but in my case, at least so far, seem to support my process. At 46, I get to do this full time having resigned from Deloitte 5 years ago. After spending 10 plus years saving and investing I was heavily concentrated in one stock who's price basically went sideways from 2011-2013 while they levered their clean balance sheet and bought back loads of shares. Every quarter their per share earnings would increase 20-30 percent, the stock would go down, I would continue studying and buy more (wanna take a guess? same industry). Anyway, good ending and of course, possibly erroneously, I attribute that success and others to the amount of reading and thinking and confidence that I developed with mgmt's based on what they said and what they DID. By the way, my process is telling me that CHTR (Gliba, Lbrda) is very high probability to, within 3-4 years, deliver my next 70-100 percent (this is only 3rd stock in 10 years where I acquired that level of confidence) and I have simply allocated accordingly. Notice how the return is not dramatic. But its the high probability with very low chance (imo, and I could well be wrong) of significant impairment (in that 3 year timeframe) that allows a concentrated bet and a fantastic financial outcome.
  6. Spek, not trying to change your mind or process and not saying how I do it is better. But I think the average investor would get a WAY BETTER feeling/understanding/grasp of the specifics of the business if they spent more time on it. Again, not saying this is better but besides reading k's and q's I spend probably 40-50 hours reading transcripts of conference calls and presentations (and actually much more with Chtr cause its a large percentage of my assets). And then at least another 15-20 hours researching and drilling down into things that mgmt said during the calls. I personally could never get a proper feel, or understanding of the business, or management just from studying the filings. I do agree there is a knowledge compound effect but that really just helps me get thru all the info quicker. It does not give me that (having a hard time defining the overall grasp that I get) overall specific understanding and confidence that comes with reading lots and lots of what mgmt says. Dont take this the wrong way but I could tell you didnt do the reading on Chtr based on your questions and comments, and thats why i asked. Again, Im sure some people do extremely well and are smart enough to get it without doing the reading (maybe you are, I am definitely not) but I believe that most of my ability and pretty good results come from that aspect. Anyway, not really any of my business but just wanted to share something that others may find useful.
  7. Spek, just curious, how many hours have you spent reading/analyzing Chtr specifically?
  8. I was under the impression that you didnt like Chtr
  9. Sure is a bargain. Spek, why dont you short it ?
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