valueinvestor

It seems market is weighing heavily on the pre-order of 14,000 trucks that includes the cost of fuel... Apparently people are saying 1999 was still worse, but if that’s the case, I’m just flabbergasted.

I really don’t understand how pre-order revenue is more valuable then actual revenue. What happened to Aesop’s one bird in hand worth two in the Bush. I’m invested in SHOP, so I’m not a traditional value investor but how can investors have faith without trying the product or ecosystem? Maybe we’re missing something huge here? Something that will ensure their victory in the market?

I totally agree with this comment. I often find this type of language is almost inversely correlated with good capital allocation. A lot of companies I perceive to have good capital allocation don't really trumpet what they're doing in those terms. +1

I remember when I first started learning value investing in 2010, I got super excited when I saw presentations with these buzz words. I later found out that I was baited in and pretty much every one of them lost me money. You and me both - I was very naive when I started out, probably still am :P

SHOP, ESTC, GAN

Really? Although I get your point - sometimes people think shareholders are fair partners, which is often not the case. Hence, I steer clear of majority ownership with few exceptions. On the other hand, I think it's entitled for "value investors" or rather "value vultures" to take advantage of short-term moves and profit with essentially no work. I know I do sometimes.

John Calamos (that was a sh*t show)

2. Icahn 3. Richard Baker - Hudson’s Bay 4. Eddie Lampert - Sears (although beginning I think he tried).

The topic is funny because it's true - these presentations have a lot of buzzwords as if they read a lot of Buffett letters - which tracks a lot of high-quality shareholders. Consequently, I get more skeptical when these buzzwords are flying around in annual reports, as I don't really look at presentations.

Would love to know your insights about it? Are you buying it because it's cheap on as asset basis where essentially 10% of market cap is cash or do you have any insights that their earnings will grow at a healthy clip which will rerate the stock?

I'm game. :)

SHOP AND SEA LTD. BOUGHT CONTURA ENERGY (Speculative Play - Almost Like Pabrai's Teck bet).

Sold out of AEO, TDG fully and bought SHOP, SEA LTD.

EVBG, COUPA, AEO, PK, TDG, in favour for SHOP when it went down.

No doubt Elon Musk would be brilliant, and the world so far in my view is a net positive with Elon Musk here. I don't think he has a death wish with his dreams to go to space, however his goal to "save the world" is can be quite daunting/stressful. He doesn't seem to care about shareholders, but rather cares more about environmental impacts, us being a multi-planet species, and the dangers of AI - and I don't blame him. The difference between him and Bezos, Gates, Buffet, etc - is that those individuals really showed care for their shareholders - or at least long term shareholders. With Elon Musk, it seems he's more determined to save the world, which makes me happy that he's rewarded for it. However as a small-time investor with his life savings, it's hard to invest and not see this as a possibility. Tony Stark was a great hero, but as a CEO...

Don’t know a lot about Howard Hughes but watching Aviator, there are some striking similarities. Those who are invested in Tesla worried about key person risks at all? He doesn’t seem the most stable of CEOs, but then again, it’s probably because he does not care about social conventions. Just wanted to know if I was the only one who thinks this :S

Didn't exit AER, TDG, AEO, PK, but trimmed down by 50%. Reinvested the proceeds into Sea (luckily before the jump).

Not to be wisecrack, but if anyone knew the answer to that - they would be the next richest person in the world. I don't think an approximation can be made.

That’s probably one of the most valuable tidbits I look for in the board. I had a chance in investing in a yogurt company - and I was thinking why the large food companies in the world can’t crush him - it’s because of machinery. It’s like there’s no incentive for large companies to work in the niche, because they would have to build another facility to compete. Almost like how processed food companies don’t compete with the health foods in the world, since their machines are designed to process fructose and not natural sources of sweetness. I wish the board was more like this - finding hidden assets. Let’s face it - many can run a dcf or sotp valuation. Edit: the yogurt company recently cleared a 1B valuation - probably more - not sure.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think the board is uninsightfully insightful - which makes it useful. I use this board to understand two angles of a particular story and figure out the third angle It also allows me to understand the market participants, the buyers, and sellers - so I can see if I have an edge. Therefore if people are looking at this a board to subs as one's analyst, or to find "great research" then I think they will be severely disappointed. However, if you are looking to understand the current story on stock and have smart people to intellectually (most of the time) disagree with you on a topic, then this board is great. This board is greater than the sum of its parts, and frankly, if people do not appreciate this fact, then I not sure what to say.

Just to rehash Spek and Gregmal - I don't think great analysts are great investors. I'm sure many on the board had experiences (me included) where they knew a lot about a stock, and were right in the analysis but still lost money. This thread would be great for learning, but I do not think it would be conducive to our annual performance. However, most of my days are speaking with experts on different topics, which I find enjoyable. I hated studying, but learning is beautiful.

RCL. Thinking about exiting AER, PK, TDG, AEO in other words cheap net-net lower than book value stocks in favour of secular growth stocks with tailwinds like Shop, Sea Limited, etc. However, I'll keep it for now.

SE, AER, TDG, PK, GSY, EVBG, COUP, XPEL

I couldn't resist, have a small position in SRL again...after feeling so good to be rid of Michael Smith last year too. The 20F out yesterday shows $28 book value. Why not have a larger position? I don't see the mine being affected by COVID-19 and iron prices have been relatively stable. I have a position too but it's relatively small compared to other position sizes, I think it's 2.5-5% of my port.

XPEL - Small Starter Position (Thanks Snowball82) AER, TDG, PK, AEO