DocSnowball

Some theoretical possibilities: - Plaintiffs were asking too much pre-SCOTUS hearing (i.e. the full boat, sr pref write down Plus overage) due to over-confidence - He doesn't intend to settle. Rather enter into a PSPA amendment with Calabria outside of legal world - Good public policy for SCOTUS to decide on FHFA head constitutionality even if PSPA amendment meets Collins' demands re: NWS and sr pref - He thinks trump might still win Or, more pessimistically, he plans to do nothing on Sr pref between now and jan20. Has anyone tracked the SCOTUS ruling on the Texas vs Pennsylvania case? If black and white cases like that one can be thrown out, I can't see how they will rule in favor of shareholders for FnF..... Trump's entire re-election hope seems to be on SCOTUS and it is a loss. Just like FnF shareholder's entire hope seems to be on SCOTUS at this moment. But there is a powerful magic hand that pulls the dolls on the front stage, and those dolls start to dance however the powerful hand orders them to dance. I don't know what else to say... My charts finally get a buy setup right now after the 2019 May top. But I have completely lost faith in the fundamentals. I think we're left at the whims of Treasury-FHFA agreement here in the next few weeks. Otherwise things can exist as they are for eternity...

To paraphrase the old joke: If he says "no" he means "maybe". If he says "maybe" he means "yes". If he says "yes", he's no poker player. Between Mnuchin, Calabria and Crapo's statements and the WSJ editorial opinion, something seems to be brewing.

This describes me for sure! It's a bit like being a casino, every time you are ready to walk away a few more coins come your way ;D

Just listened to the SCOTUS arguments. Pointed questions on both sides. From the forest view, the whole situation is absurd to me. If you were the FHFA director working for years to recap the companies, why would you not settle the lawsuits and move this forward? Only reason I can think of is Treasury not playing ball. Why? IDK!!! If this is not in the too hard pile, I'm not sure what is. Yet, why is this trade so hard to walk away from? It always seems like resolution is just around the corner, and then years go by :'(

FDA meeting and presentation link for Thursday (Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine review) https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement#event-information Edit: full documents are at the bottom of the page

Getting more simplified in 2020 (ballparks): VOO 20% VEA 18-20% INDA 10% FXI 10% BRK-B 5% Fannie preferreds 5% DIS 4% 2U 2% Cash/Short term treasuries waiting to be deployed 25%

MBA features as one of the campaign contributors to Mike Rounds, the Senator who asked the question. "Commercial banks" as well. https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00035187&cycle=2020&type=C

This kind of journalism is so pathetic imho...if they wanted to do it for hedge funds wouldn't it be years ago. Instead of looking at the merit of the proposal, they come out with all sorts of garbage. Security prices go up all the time with event based investments; it seems this is just an excuse for journalists pushing an agenda. Edit: also to invert the argument, if/when a PSPA and consent order is done, one could argue any rollback to that path can seriously set back the mortgage market as well, and with more lawsuits to boot.

@Eric - sorry to hear about all that you went through. Glad to hear you're getting better. Wishing you and your family well for a speedy recovery!

Dear CoBF community members, Happy Thanksgiving to you and your lovely families! Today and always, grateful for your friendship, generosity and support as this journey of investing and life unfolds. Stay safe and take good care. With warm wishes to you and your loved ones!

This is getting really interesting! Hoping and speculating we will see something concrete after all.

I believe the only acknowledgement previously was Calabria's verbal statements. I am not advising you on your position size lol Let me say it in a different way. The goal of analyzing this piece of information is to make money right. What are your views on the market reacting to this info? Mine are that there isn't much materially different than what we knew earlier. It's not that the security is undervalued; it is fairly valued given the risk of loss, and the capital rule release didn't change that much. Do you believe differently, or that the market is underreacting and there is money to be made out of trading this piece of news?

Where do you see the explicit reference in the rule to a consent decree? Thanks in advance for your response! I think I see it searching for consent order - page 22 and pages 140-145: "The final rule provides a transition period to permit each Enterprise to develop the internal models required by the final rule. Specifically, the advanced approaches requirements generally will apply to an Enterprise on the later of January 1, 2025 and any later compliance date specific to those requirements provided in a consent order or other transition order applicable to the Enterprise. During the transition period, each Enterprise’s market risk capital requirement will be equal to its measure for spread risk, determined as contemplated by the proposed rule’s standardized approach." Sounds positive but not enough for me to increase position size from 5%. Didn't we know this already?

Where do you see the explicit reference in the rule to a consent decree? Thanks in advance for your response!

So meaning that the case will continue forward? Not sure how this means anything if at all. Preferred trading up today on OK volume. My read was speculation on capital rule timing then the mediation cancellation. Isn't the short term price movement just related to news flow about next steps, esp looking back over all these many years? Nothing has materially happened all this time for it to be considered true "insider trading" based on material information. The times there has been major price movement up or down has been either public statements about release from conservatorship or court verdicts.

Another letter from Bronte. I put this here because he talks a lot about behavioral aspects of the Coronavirus as well as investing implications. I understand many here don’t like him, but I find his reasoning very sound: http://files.brontecapital.com/amalthea/Amalthea_Letter_202009.pdf Thanks for sharing. This is such a delight to read, coming up with one's version of a behavioral model building on the pure viral dynamics model. Love the benefit versus risk framework that decides what individuals end up doing, to be able to understand and empathize with their decisions. On reflection, I can recognize that in this current phase people are making decisions based on perceived social and economic benefits much more than pure virus driven thinking that was dominant in the beginning. Overall bodes well for economic recovery in the medium and long term.

Like many others here, I was in this trade before Trump even started his campaign in 2015, so clearly my naive assumption all along was that the courts would be on our side. But while there is a possibility that the courts could finally come through for us, as a preferred holder I would gladly accept a deal between Mnuchin and Calabria to write off the senior preferred and settle the lawsuits. If you hold the common stock, perhaps some would prefer the gamble that the lawsuits yield a bigger payday, but that's a risky play, if you ask me. We have no inkling on the stance of the plaintiffs - Berkowitz et al, but one would think they have some incentive to cut a deal with this admin rather than take their chances with SCOTUS or Biden admin. If I was in their shoes, I'd be making some efforts...

Agree so far the interim news brief looks better than expected at 90% efficacy. Good news is so welcome in 2020!

This is what I could find online - a mutation in the spike protein, along with 12 human cases. Don't have competence in this area to give a good answer, but on the surface of it, this is similar to what is done to prevent emerging avian flu outbreaks when a new strain is detected that transmits to humans from animals. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-mink/denmark-tightens-lockdown-in-north-mink-cull-devastates-industry-idUSKBN27L2JT It always made me nervous that we never got to find out the animal reservoir, if any, in China from where the virus could have jumped into humans. There wasn't much info offered about any analysis from Wuhan Seafood market or other areas in China. One can only assume that animal reservoir hasn't been the source of more animal-to-human transmission given the low numbers in China, but who knows.

Toomey might well be in the "let it happen" column. Question is, who (person) or what (catalyst) would "make it happen" still? I think if nothing happens prior to transition of power, then looks like it may be a long drawn out wait once again, subject to the court ruling. The court hearing and if progressing then its result are the two sure events on the calendar, everything else seems to be subject to the kindness of strangers.

Great thread and question. I'm starting to look at companies which have low debt and can come out with a changed narrative in terms of their total addressable market on the other side. I think Disney is on its way to doing this but wish it had less debt. I think the most pent up demand is in being able to socialize again - how depends, can be individual interactions in nature, small gatherings, entertainment like movies and store shopping, community events, public events in order of increasing risk. One thing that has changed in medicine in Telemedicine. Here to stay for sure. While I'm not that thrilled about standalone telemedicine companies, what may emerge is a "platform" company for healthcare to get your tele visits done, order your meds and have them delivered to your home - by your own doctor not someone you barely know. Still looking for how this shakes out but patients have tasted convenience and want more of it. Faster trials and FDA approvals are also noticeable and could impact Pharma lifecycle times and success rates. One thing that has changed in education is asynchronous learning in mainstream institutions. We are now building a decent proportion of events online and asynchronously because it's insanity to expect people will keep sitting to learn for hours and hours (try Elucidat if you haven't, would have loved to invest in it). This, and the virtual learning platforms like Zoom rooms are here to stay. I think in the coming years people will invest in recreating and changing careers more going forward - perhaps a lot more of getting into a job or apprenticeship and patching together applicable credit courses to get a "degree" or "certification". Platforms that provide this will seriously challenge the bloated academic institutions. Lots more to think about!

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again. Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come. Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc. We have seen this before.... So, it wasn’t just me. Animal instincts are much earlier on display in a Walmart than in Wegman‘s: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-ceo-consumers-are-stocking-up-again-as-coronavirus-rages-on-174308762.html Connecticut recorded 2047 cases on October 25th. The only other day more cases (2109) were recorded in our state during the pandemic was April 22nd. While those numbers were a gross underrepresentation back then, we are no doubt seeing a very significant and sustained uptick now.

Well at least you admit it. This was not a low stakes issue which is why I questioned your level of confidence. When people become confident in such things, the danger is that precaution is thrown aside. When leaders dismiss precaution and instead exhibit confidence that “the virus will be gone soon” or “a vaccine will be here soon”, the cost of them being wrong—economically and in terms of lives lost—is massive and will be borne by society... The Asian countries and some others like NZ seem to get the precautionary principle. Others not so much. Let's for a moment assume the herd immunity thesis is broken (we don't know that yet). You're not the only one holding it, there are plenty of others who will realize this as cases and hospitalizations go up, and we anticipate they could go up fast. My question is, can one make money from this understanding? If yes, where are the opportunities to make money if a significant third wave hits? Edit: this question is based on the realization that cases and markets have not correlated much in the last 6 months

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again. Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come. Interesting - I had the same feeling and behavior at Costco yesterday, and ended up wondering if it was just me feeling that way or a lot of others. Purely anecdotal and likely biased. Anthony Fauci spoke at the annual ID society meeting yesterday and shared this graph comparing US and Europe's curves to date (attached) - looks ominous. Between the lines, he was very critical of the way US never shut down in a coordinated way and then reopened too hastily. He seemed to be very very concerned about what the next 3-4 weeks will bring. I agree with you it's the hospitalization rates that will drive partial closures. The frightening thing is that the way the US is responding, a large increase in cases and hospitalizations seems inevitable. On the bright side, seems like Moderna's vaccine enrollment is expected to be completed within days and Pfizer's within a few weeks. The trial design is to follow up patients for two months after second dose, but if there is a significant number of cases in the control arm, interim analysis may reveal results sooner. When results come, throw in more time for FDA approval, and some more for rollout. Then wait for two doses 21-28 days apart to be given to be effective, starting with healthcare workers and high risk individuals. Even in this best case, his opinion (which I agree with) was that we are going to have to deal with this wave without the protection of the vaccine kicking in for anyone until Feb 2020 or so.

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March. Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die. Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up. I'll go ahead and agree that this is the perception of a sizable proportion of people and decision makers. There may be little to change that perception apart from there being so many cases that mortalities go up above spring highs and/or hospitals are overwhelmed. The question I'd ask you is what data or events will it take to change that opinion, if any? For me, if there are lower mortalities and serious hospitalizations through the winter, no matter how it happens, I'll be happy to change my opinion. My take on it is that is part of what is enabling the virus to continue to spread leaving the US in a precarious position going into winter, along with lack of a national strategy. And once enough seeds of "spreaders" are sown it is too late to stop the wave from becoming overwhelming. What worked in the summer isn't working in a lot of countries despite all the precautions being taken by so many. There is an overwhelming force of the virus transmitting successfully under certain conditions (indoors, colder weather, close gatherings, etc). In the spring, the playbook was set by China by wide shutdowns, with Europe and some US states following. This time it may be Europe and some predominantly Democrat-run states scripting how we will respond. Time will tell.