DocSnowball

3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I should have realized that different states have different situations. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave. @muscleman, and others who have market timing investment philosophies: I'm curious about the latest wave of cases and it's impact on market timing. What are the US and European markets correlating with then, because they don't seem to be correlating with this rise in cases, or now with the rising hospitalization and death numbers or even some localized shutdowns? Is there any metric of the pandemic that they are correlating to? Were we just dealing with liquidity issues that the Fed actions improved, or does solvency come into the picture to impact them as the next wave arrives and this drags on?

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far. WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen. I do not have time to track all 50 states. What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk? I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition. Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity. There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%. Finally! Thank you for providing your definition of herd immunity. It is not the textbook definition of herd immunity, but that is not the majority of where you seem to be going wrong in your reasoning. It's true that if we had achieved herd immunity that cases would be declining. It is NOT true that if cases are declining, we must have achieved herd immunity. If A then B, does not mean you can say, B therefore A. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent I agree that it is likely that T-cell immune response likely varies widely and as I have said before I believe there are lots of reasons to believe the level of immunity in the US and elsewhere is likely materially underestimated. That doesn't mean that we are anywhere near the textbook definition of herd immunity anywhere in the world other than in a few narrowly defined communities. This is something I'm thinking of as well. In many prior outbreaks like pandemic flu, there have been multiple waves. Just because cases went down after the first wave then did not mean herd immunity was already present. Similarly, most Coronavirus (antibody) serosurveys are showing population positivity rates between 5-20% making another wave highly likely. In SARS cases went to zero but they were dealing with small numbers and localized outbreaks, which is different from this pandemic where there are so many "seeds" that it likely won't die out by itself until it infects >50% of the population.

Lot more explanations of estimation update in the Americas here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-paho http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-united-states They note that they have not adjusted the IFR/CFR lower yet despite availability of new therapeutics. Apologies for the multiple posts.

From the estimation updates page: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-global

Just saw these new projections from the IHME, very sobering. IDK what data inputs they use to create these projections - they have been within 1 standard deviation to date. It's quite bothersome, along with the current <50% universal mask use data which highlights so many of these infections are preventable. The cases and deaths seem to go up come November, and keep climbing through the rest of the year. A lot will rest on having an effective vaccine, not to change these statistics but to eventually make the next wave come down. If there were no vaccine in sight, one could make a case for going on with your life unhinged. But with a vaccine around the corner in 3-6 months, it seems to me a travesty if so many deaths happen. What do you think of this? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect. I don’t see why you think he has a problem with Fauci. His post shows he has a problem with how the left media is using Fauci Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies for the error in perception. As for both the left and right media, less said the better.

Thank you for creating and posting here! Trying it starting today. Certainly fit in the individual investor looking for a robust investment research platform. Really appreciate your work and your mission

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect.

~10% at this point. Added a hair during COVID drawdown, but not much. Already very large and bumping my own person position limits. Am optimistic about the direction and recent events, but definitely consistently disappointed on timing. +1 here. ~10% and with the understanding this may drag on for another 3-4 years, with lots of volatility around the elections. Just don't see how the institutions can be recapped without taking care of JPS shareholders; CBO report pretty much said the same. Major risks are delayed timing, being dependent on the kindness of strangers, and another attempt at nationalization by Democrats in that order.

CDC data on seropositivity rates from 10 cities (taken from lab samples drawn for other reasons, so a more representative sample) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html Connecticut for example shows 4.9% --> 5.2% --> 6.3% in April, May and June specimens. Most under 10% barring NYC.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/08/covid-19-cases-climb-higher-european-countries 1700 in Germany 3715 in Spain And the most depressing map of the week award goes to this one from Dr. Anthony Fauci... https://gizmodo.com/look-at-this-horrible-horrible-map-1844780399

This is B.S. If this were true, there would not be the second wave phenomenon seen in past pandemics. Very interesting counterpoint. However, influenza immunity lasts a few months typically and in past flu pandemics a lot of second waves were described. Coronavirus immunity has been longer lasting (1 year plus) example for SARS where there was no second wave. Still hard for me to believe at 5-20% of antibody titer positivities we would have herd immunity. IMHO it's partial population immunity but a major impact is from physical distancing and mask wearing. It's good enough to decrease cases so that there is a bed in the hospital if you need it, but not good enough where (near) normal social interaction could resume without inviting another outbreak.

Lots of speculation on pages 13-14, quite positive for Junior preferred IMHO:

You are welcome. I think the whole point of this thread is to exchange information and facts, instead of bias. I totally agree on that. :) Trying to graph a linear curve of total deaths/million and log curves of daily deaths per million population - better done on your own device so you can highlight each country at a time. I'm attaching a snapshot from my screen. Per CDC total deaths per million for NYC is ~2800/M; NJ 1780/M. Comparatively, each of these countries on the graph is is 680/M or lower. India is less than 50/M (certainly there could be virus strain effects or reporting issues rather than just the host immunity). We do know that NYC went through intensive social distancing after initial spread, rather than deaths ceasing from achieving herd immunity, so I doubt the death rate was maxed out until "herd immunity" was reached. You are correct that Sweden death rates flattened - however there could have been mobility reductions there as well; people do behave differently than what governments ask them to. Also trying to compare log rates of daily deaths/Million. Countries with lesser mobility reductions could include Brazil, Sweden and US, as compared w Europe or Asia. Here Brazil and US still have a log curve above 1 which tells us it is too early to predict max deaths here. Sweden however did have a log curve reduction in the daily deaths which I cannot explain. My take after looking at these is it is too hard to tell if there is true herd immunity, and likely not there, given that countries with lower mobility restrictions like Brazil and US have ongoing deaths with a per million death toll nowhere near even the NYC death rates. Apart from Sweden, the rest are not supporting the herd immunity thesis. Also, as long as large swaths of vulnerable populations remain, businesses and daily life will continue to be impacted and thus social distancing will need to continue. There is one thing that is not supporting my viewpoint. Nowhere has the healthcare system been overwhelmed twice. That would be a true second wave, which has not happened anywhere. That would be clear evidence of herd immunity not being present. Economically, I think Governments will keep opening up until that happens, they almost have no choice as financial life support will run out. I hope we never find out and you're right :) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://www.timeout.com/news/new-tracking-data-shows-which-countries-and-cities-are-social-distancing-the-most-040920 https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

Thanks for sharing in more detail Muscleman. Will look again at the info on different countries and states within countries as well with an open mind.

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already. Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX. So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August. Do you think the NYC already has it? I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC. The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower. I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November. And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that. Again, I will push back on your thesis that herd immunity is developing muscleman. The NY serosurveys were of people out and about and willing to get serosurvey testing done, not a random sample IMHO. Secondly, if pre-existing immunity were to play a large role, those who have lived longer, or been more exposed like those in nursing homes or healthcare work, would do better. But those are the populations heavily impacted in this first wave. Also, simply having T cell reactivity does not prove anything; again the elderly are dying in larger numbers and they would be the most likely to have pre-existing cross reactive immunity. On the contrary, young children who have never been exposed are doing relatively well. I acknowledge you have repeated your conviction, but the purpose of being on a message board at least for me is to be open to contrary views and clarify my thinking. There is an important distinction between cases going down due to control measures of social distancing (which need to be maintained until herd immunity develops) and true herd immunity (where life and business can resume as usual). Beyond the theoretical disconfirmation, your thesis has also not played out in any country so far. Places that reopen without proper social distancing are having recurrence of infections rather than displaying herd immunity. Also, since you have been following this in China, can you offer any reasoning why the virus did not spread as much within China outside Hubei province as in the rest of the world? I've been curious about that. Is it just fake data or is there more? How has their social distancing evolved now?

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all. I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market. No I don't think it will rise again in the fall to Thanksgiving. Maybe COVID will not help predicting the stock market but this is the COVID thread so discussion of COVID going forward should be the top priority here. @Muscleman - I have a healthy respect for you not having confirmation bias, and for others following Coronavirus on this thread (kudos to your stamina and patience). Trying to think about how this is unfolding in the 6-12 mo, or let's call it pre-vaccine timeframe. I do want to question your thesis. My perception is that the virus numbers do go down after a peak. Is that from herd immunity? No hard proof of that. I think it is more likely due to people changing their behavior and doing more social distancing once cases, hospitalizations and deaths in their vicinity go up. Whether a county or country's numbers are low or high, the same pattern seems to be prevailing. Up, then down, then up a little when behavior eases, forcing behavior change again. When will herd immunity be reached is a question I do not have any confidence in answering - likely sooner in lower income countries where people are forced to go out (at a high health cost), and likely much later when the vaccine arrives in other countries. The second order effects of that thinking are the economically I don't see activity going back to baseline, just petering at 70-80% of prior except for what can be done from home or online, until either vaccine is given or infection happens to a large % of people, perhaps 50-60%. So I'm preparing for a prolonged slowdown even if there is confidence that numbers will go down, because they will go down due to social distancing and reduced activity rather than everyone being immune and being able to do whatever they'd like to do. In a sense, pain and losses mounting slowly but surely on the economic front. I actually think on the health front we may end up doing ok with less flu deaths and a lot of people being cautious in the wintertime, but I've been wrong so much by now I've stopped trusting my own predictions!

Have been thinking of the same. Or even if it is a win but the monetary relief is a nominal $1

thanks. Bove mentioned a new speech at Cato, but I imagine it is this. tidbit at end was constructive though not much meat on bone Actions speak louder than words. One thing that is dissonant is his counting current retained earnings as capital, whereas the amendment they did only increases the liquidation preference to that amount. If it was true retained capital, our property would not be what it is. Probably things are very very complex at his end, but actions are speaking louder than words for me. It's only the stick of the courts that is a comfort - it'll be difficult hosing shareholders at this juncture with the NWS and FHFA in the spotlight for the next year or so.

Not sure if you want raw data or something that track hospitalizations in all states in single graph. I look at https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys which has hospitalizations, but you have to select particular state. Maybe there's a way to get underlying data or different graph(s), I'm not sure. There's also this: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical It is also per state and numbers only, so you'd have to scrape/graph yourself. Thanks, that's great. Really appreciate it.

Anyone have a good place to track COVID-19 hospitalizations state by state in the US? I'm having a hard time getting to track this metric, and would like to do so closely. My thought is total cases are a good measure for the seeds that are fraught with possibility, and deaths are a lagging indicator by too much (by that time everyone already knows). There are enough seeds sown across the country to be concerned about some shoots coming up in more than one state in the months ahead, and the process could keep repeating itself until flu season arrives. Or not. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator by 2-3 weeks but (increase in total cases AND increase in daily hospitalizations) is what I'd like to track closely. Data fatigue seems to be an issue at least for myself, would like to snap out of it and prepare for the next phase. Thanks in advance and apologies for the naive question.

Made me think of this article on the 8 levels of value investing https://www.gurufocus.com/news/462427/the-8-levels-of-value-investing

A cryptic message? For who and why? Found the price drop in the last week a bit more bothersome than I should have. Still fundamentals have been solidly improving in the last year. My base case is this drags on for another year or so before we find out our status, and I find it difficult to envision how the recap process can move forward without something reasonable being offered to Preferred holders.

I've been scratching my head as well about contact tracing apps. It's very confusing at least in the Northeast US, can't speak of other places. It seems we have given up on contact tracing for now, although the plan is to develop and roll these out so that new cases get fewer and fewer like other countries. There are two main purposes and flavors of apps AFAIK: 1) Identify "contacts' to a confirmed or suspected case and notify them manually or using AI: Google and Apple created the platform, however it needs individual countries or states to develop and roll out the app and the contact tracing program. No sign of it on the ground here in Connecticut. All we have is more than a month old news release from the State dept of health!!! https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/ 2) Apps for reopening workplaces, some of which may interface with #1 or with electronic medical record databases Again many with hats in the ring, including a collaboration between Optum and Microsoft and a few more from newer startups https://news.microsoft.com/2020/05/15/unitedhealth-group-and-microsoft-collaborate-to-launch-protectwell-protocol-and-app-to-support-return-to-workplace-planning-and-covid-19-symptom-screening/ Any one have an app they are using within the US that's working well for them?

You look at all the economic devastation caused by the virus. Of all the things individual people can do to get the economy back to normal, wearing a mask when out is the most simple and most effective. Given our need to get the economy back to normal as quickly as possible wearing masks when out should be a requirement. But governments in US and Canada would look stupid (given previous communication on wearing masks) so this will likely not happen. So most people will continue to not wear masks when out; and many of these same people will bitch and complain about the need for the government to end restrictions and get the economy back to normal. Crazy times :-) Taleb has 6 reasons why masks help. Here is one of them: Third Error: Mistaking Absence of Evidence for Evidence of Absence “There is no evidence that masks work”, I kept hearing repeated to me by the usual idiots calling themselves “evidence based” scientists. The point is that there is no evidence that locking the door tonight will prevent me from being burglarized. But everything that may block transmission could help. Unlike school, real life is not about certainties. When in doubt, use what protection you can. Some invoked the flawed rationalization that masks induce false confidence: in fact there is a strong argument that masks makes one more alert to the risks and more conservative in behavior. So true - in infection prevention a commonly used approach is to bundle up all the interventions that may work, and deploy them together. Sad to see the CDC not champion this approach when it has mattered most. We all have needed to figure out and deploy our own bundles in this vacuum that lack of good public health advice has created, and unfortunately that's not good enough against this virus. CDC did come up with some guidance June 12th on personal and social activities, link below: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/activities.html