alpha

I haven't looked at the company in ages, but at one point a significant amount of sales were coming from the fracking industry. Is that still the case?

Yes it was all those elderly covid patients in nursing homes own fault. Last I checked 1/4 of all NJ nursing homes were infected. The asymptomatic spreading of this virus is what makes it difficult to contain, people don't know when they are sick/spreading it.

We have just in time supply chains, they are not good for handling large spikes in demand. The demand shock has probably been unprecedented, within a week or so majority of american family's changed behavior to being home 24/7 and consuming majority of meals from groceries. In addition many people started purchasing multiple weeks worth of food as a precaution. I haven't seen any numbers but the spike in demand must have been massive. At the end of the day things like yogurt and sour cream come from cattle and you can't create more dairy cows overnight.

Thousands of condos in Toronto were being rented out short term on sites like Airbnb, especially downtown where there is lack of hotels. All those rentals are basically dead now, and I suspect even after the lock downs are lifted tourism will be down for a while. It will be interesting to see how many of those condo owners can survive a downturn and if the high RE prices can be sustained.

On a side note does anyone know how this pandemic is affecting the real estate market in China? For years we have been hearing about bubbles there but the government has been able to keep it going. Could this cause a disruption too big for the government to cover?

BRKB 161ish

Gates had a number of unique characteristics that made him an ideal board member for BRK, sad to see him go.

Interesting question is what Buffett could be buying instead? There are only few banks that he might be buying without crossing 10%. Same with airlines. If he's buying AAPL, that's huge balls considering his existing position. What else? If he was interested in buying an airline whole, it seems like this would be the time to do it. I know he has publicly stated it is complicated but complications may be worth it at these prices.

Hmm, is NetJets a success currently? I remember it was not doing great at some point. I think it's too small to be mentioned anymore, so probably we can't know how it is doing. I think it's not mentioned anymore because WEB parroted the excellent management in place at Netjets for years in the annual letters, promising profit was just around the corner until losses mounted and he turfed the CEO. I don't believe it was ever mentioned again after the management transition was announced.

I agree BRK shares may be cheaper from a few months ago but other businesses/sectors have sold off much more (energy, airlines, etc..) if this keeps up it will be great time to put cash to work buying bargains. Historically BRK has been able to put large sums of cash to work quickly when the markets roll over.

brkb

BRKB and SU

Anyone else sad to see the Nightly Business Report (a business show on public access tv produced by CNBC) was cancelled at the end of the year? It was created in 1979 and I think it was the last intelligent business show out there. I watched or listened to the podcast daily during the work week. :( Hopefully some philanthropist will take notice and offer to cover the production costs. https://variety.com/2019/tv/news/pbs-nightly-business-report-cease-production-1203401018/

I also find this surprising, with all the money GEICO spends on the employee compensation program I thought they would have a selection of next generation execs groomed to take over. If it is part of succession planning I don't understand where he fits into the mix, maybe 3 roles with Abel as CEO, Jain running insurance, and Combs managing the investment portfolio... ???

I think you should go review Berkshires history, specifically the flood of large high-quality companies they purchased in quick succession when the junk bond market dried up at the end of the dot com bubble.

I bought the hardcover book that contained 1965-2014 letters, I believe it was only around 800 pages but small font and large pages. It was easier on the eyes than a computer screen but weighs a ton, not something you can take to read on the beach :D

Bought some OXY this week (yes followed Berkshire in)

Curious if anyone has done DD on GFL Environmental? They seem to have a pretty strong lock on a few industries around Toronto. Kind of funny Canada's biggest IPO is a garbage company ;D

Thought this was an interesting scheme: https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/woman-who-used-swaps-to-run-tfsa-up-to-200k-from-5k-in-one-year-suffers-triple-loss-in-court-appeal

+1 for gfp, he is a great contributor. I look forward to reading his posts too.

Trudeau announced this week that the government would subsidize 800k house purchases if re-elected. What a mess.

Some details about the hybrid electric locomotive BNSF is developing with Wabtec https://www.railwayage.com/mechanical/locomotives/bnsf-wabtec-advancing-the-future-of-motive-power/

Added to FIH.U

Can you share some insights into your thinking on IIFL? Fairfax Indias investment in it hasn't panned out so good.

Does Rosenberg disclose his personal holdings? He is on the air all the time making these macro predictions but if he was any good at it he would probably be retired or at least extremely wealthy.