DooDiligence

I'm gonna go with these 2 guys http://www.businessinsider.com/howard-marks-warren-buffett-quote-on-media-fake-news-economists-2017-1 and keep searching for fair deals on quality...

Aha (I need to learn more about taxation after I learn more about balance sheet analysis after I learn more about...)

On Amazon today! https://www.amazon.com/Business-Adventures-Twelve-Classic-Street-ebook/dp/B00L1TPCKW/ref=lp_6165845011_1_5?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1482755885&sr=1-5

Brilliant post! I should know the answer to this since I read all the BRK letters to shareholders but... I'm curious as to whether the Pareto principal applied to the 80 securities / 20 opcos with regards to cash generated (I'm pretty sure that's a yes...) If so, that would seem to be the reason for the reversal to 20/80 (and if it did, is the opco portion still generating 80% of cash?) The nearly irrelevant follow up would be; has WEB beaten Vilfredo Pareto here or by the act of giving away the majority of his wealth to the B & M Gates Foundation? (or both, or neither...)

Merry Christmas & thanks for being so gracious when responding (or not responding) to my fledgling attempts at participation here... I still can't believe there's no annual fee. I'll start clicking on an ad every now & then!

Agreed on macro (I read an interesting observation recently where this guy said if you go on vacation & mostly take photos of yourself then you're a tourist & if you mostly take pictures of the places you're visiting then you're a traveller...) On being a VP (partially done in sectors, never done because they have too many hidden moves I can't copy, done or at least my amateur version...) I'm not quantitatively sophisticated enough for deep dive, sum of the parts, stuff but I do believe that I can spot quality (whatever that means) & have a reasonable amount of restraint so that I don't buy when CNBC, Morningstar, Value Line or whoever, whips an issue into a frenzy. Here's to scratching where we all itch!

Tony Robbins will produce a Festivus miracle. He & the president elect get trapped togeather in an elevator & Robbins hypnotizes Trump. Trump emerges from the elevator a chubby chaser. Weight watchers gets shorted into oblivion & Chinese buffets in North America see significant increases in volume (my NVO investment pays off!) Thank you Tony Robbins!!!

Heyyyyyy wait just a minute; you said Dow 30,000!?! He's trying to build-in plausible deniability. If it reaches 30K, he was right, but if it doesn't then the "3" was clearly a typo. Nah. I really don't care much if i am right or wrong on this call. i have no ego, here is proof: i gambled on zinc and semi and lost some money in 2015. It was speculation and i was very wrong. Sometimes you are wrong. Life goes on. My ego keeps my id in check...

Heyyyyyy wait just a minute; you said Dow 30,000!?! He's trying to build-in plausible deniability. If it reaches 30K, he was right, but if it doesn't then the "3" was clearly a typo. Right twice a day & all that...

According to Euromonitor, per capita beer consumption in Brazil was 68.6 litres last year which was well behind the 85.5 litres per year of Venezuela (who knew that having a crappy economy would lead to more partying?) I don't know what the connection between beer & rockets is but it's there somewhere (I'm sure of it!)

The stock market can up without any change in other assets. Let’s call the cash in all other assets cash on the sidelines. If I take some of my cash from the sidelines and buy a stock from you, I now have the stock and you have cash on the sidelines. The cash on the sidelines has not changed even if the price of the stock has increased. Absolutely spot on! A lot of people have trouble comprehending circular money flows. I keep hearing things like people are moving into stocks. No. Unless they're buying public offerings then if someone is moving into stocks then someone is moving out of stocks. The guvmint should come up with a form for sellers to disclose what they spend the money on (reinvested or bought some stuff!!!)

Icahn's post will be the newly created SecTweet (I tawt I taw a Democrat) will be his firtht Tweet. Heyyyyyy wait just a minute; you said Dow 30,000!?! I don't forecast very well & my odds don't improve with frequency (maybe I should try using an extremely high pitched voice...) (nahhhh doesn't work on CNBC, won't work for me either...)

Switch to Stella or Becks!!! own BUD now ;) I used to support AmBev a bit when I worked in Brasil (Antarctica, Bohemia & Skol - depending on which was the coldest...) I will immediately switch to Stella in honor of you (I drank it when working in Egypt around the end of the last millenium...) Stranger drinking strange beer!

Any reconciliation with the taxing authority yet?

That...

I don't think that you're necessarily a bad capital allocator. Maybe somewhat inefficient. But so what? Strip malls and parking lots exist because they are efficient (read cheap) but they're ugly as balls and make your life worse so in the end not such a good thing despite efficiency. Yes maybe you can leverage your house and use the extra funds to make some smart investments and in the end you'll end up a bit richer. But then you'll have to monitor and balance your leverage, etc, basically more headaches. Alternatively one can be less capital efficient, have peace of mind, enjoy life and have no worries regarding having to put one's home back to the bank or not. What if you get rich enough and don't need the extra funds? Wasn't that a waste of time? I know it wan't your intention, but you may have actually convinced me to get a mortgage (balancing leverage & having an even bigger cash pile to invest would be fun!) I wanted to be debt free after having dug myself a very deep hole from 2000 to 2006 (about 2/3 was idiotic non collateralized debt resulting from a failed business attempt.) I paid it all off (no bancruptcy baby!) & now, after a year & a half of being debt free, I have a small vehicle loan. I believe that 10 years from now, interest rates will be much higher (macro genius, I'm not but...) Whether I lever my home kinda hinges on: 1) Can I achieve returns higher than cost of capital + inflation? 2) Will I maintain income sufficient to service the mortgage + cost of living? 3) Will Peter Griffin move in next door? All unknowns...

What an elegant solution!

A man went with his wife to visit her mother. When they arrived at the MIL's house, she was out in the yard getting the crap kicked out of her by 6 women. As he stood there and watched, his wife asked him "Well, aren't you going to help?" He replied "No, six of them ought to be enough."

Good read - thanks...

Yes, it is actually striking. P/E ~26 for NSRGY, P/E ~38 for KHC. [Not sure I have got it right with KHC though]. Yeah; that 22 PE on KHC is forward & not trailing. They both seem to have similar debt levels (which I really like, especially in comparison to Colgate & P&G which are levered.) (I also prefer Nestle & KHC's product lineups in comparison to P&G & CL) The price difference is probably the 3G/WEB halo effect (since I'm in Nestle, there's no halo there...) I got no fancy analysis other than: Gerber, Ralston Purina, Digiorno, Tombstone, Stoufers, Lean Cuisine, Haagen Daz, Nescafe, Nespresso & more, combined with global distribution makes me hope for my tiny defensive position in Nestle to drop to half its value so I could triple up for a decade or more of "leben auf der Alp..."

I'm guessing that superior skill minimizes downside risk & luck contributes greatly to gains (the timing of other market participants becoming as enamored of our ideas as we are is impossible to forecast...) I'm not claiming superior skills but I hope to obtain them by reading & talking with COBF members!

Agreed with regards to all! In years past friends would come to my house & some would notice my bookshelf & start asking questions & I would enthusiastically discuss investing (the ones whose eyes would immediately start glazing over, I'd hand a short list of Vanguard index funds & that'd be that) but I never found anyone with the temperament to match my advice (it was all; "what do you think about xxx, they do something medical or technical & my guy says it's gonna double in less than a year blah, blah, blah...) & there was no convincing them otherwise so I moved all books about finance from the public areas to the shelves in my office. At work; crewmembers see me reading & occasionally the same thing happens with almost 100% glazed over eye syndrome so it's all good there! The only family member I have success with is my sister. She's finally onboard after she bought Alcoa around $15 & watched it drop 50% & ADM at $55 or $60 (I forget...) both of which she bought without knowing the first thing about either business. My Mom fixates on tax consequences & won't listen to a word regarding a large concentration of ATT (over 50%) so now I mention it about once a year when she asks for advice which she promptly ignores. I think that's a big reason I love being here (you guys enjoy talking about businesses & the reality of investing) and of course, I learn a lot from everyone here... Almost forgot to add; had a mother in law before & don't plan on having another (blissfully single!)

Easily identified value!

Azul? http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N1DH2JE Crazier things have happened...

My industry has gone bust & I'm still one of the survivors. I didn't know that Canada allowed margin deduction but not mortgage (is the Gov trying to encourage risk taking on equity investment as opposed to home ownership?) You're gonna force me to become rational about my home here in the US...