DooDiligence

Anchoring to good salesmanship in earnings webcasts? (PBM & value based pharma delivery for me) http://uglymule.com/images/horse-beating.gif

What kind of success have you had averaging down? It sounds good in theory, but it takes a lot of conviction. The theory is based on an anchor I set out after making a nice profit from Edwards Lifescience's back in 2013ish. I bought x200 shares & x2 LEAP calls & the thing doubled about a year later. Traded off the calls (LT cap gain) & nearly paid for the shares which split & doubled again (more LT cap gain.) I didn't have this theory at the time & now recognize the anchor regarding LEAPs (thanks?) Started looking for similar opportunities & still haven't found a good one (unless ESRX pays off) Most of the items in my signature are only 1/3 of what I want since they haven't gone down. Novo Nordisk made it to 2/3 but there are no long dated calls. Apple is down to around 1/3 after I sold some (like an idiot.) (all fractions represent what I own of what I'd like to own) ESRX is the overhang on this theory at the moment & may not be a good comp.

Fixating on metrics is at least an investment thesis. The worst is fixating on your purchase price, which is irrelevant for anybody but yourself. You & LC are super right here! I have a really hard time paying more than my last execution price for an issue. Kind of crazy, "I'm pretty confident that it'll be worth a lot more in a decade but I don't want to pay a premium above the benchmark I've established in my head." Or even worse is that you don't buy it at all, because after you have convinced yourself that you want to own it, you then want to wait until it is back down to the price it was when you first added it to your watchlist. You just can't bring yourself to pay that premium, as if the universe owes you the opportunity to buy it where it was a few months ago when you first started looking at it. Ughh. The human brain sucks sometimes. These are the default modes of thinking unless you consciously override them which takes some effort. Yes that one really sucks. The only question should be whether it's objectively cheap (enough). This is why averaging down is so much easier. I also always feel hesitant adding to positions I initiated years ago which have gone up. I love averaging down too (frequently requires enduring bad news & figuring out if it's relevant.) I like to buy 1/3 & then add another 1/3 & so on until full (if the bad news sounds like noise & it really tanks after I'm full, I'll go out on a long limb with LEAP calls and as long as the idea holds water...?) if it never goes down, it's all good.

this is so much fun! i cant imagine anyone not being enriched by this thought process (monetarily & personally...)

F.A.N.M.A.I.L. ----- FAQ's * Are the mentions in your Twitter feed as good as they sound? * Why do many of your Tweets / Tips disappear so quickly? * How do I get one of the t-shirts shown on your website? * Is your logo an acronym for something profound?

Fixating on metrics is at least an investment thesis. The worst is fixating on your purchase price, which is irrelevant for anybody but yourself. You & LC are super right here! I have a really hard time paying more than my last execution price for an issue. Kind of crazy, "I'm pretty confident that it'll be worth a lot more in a decade but I don't want to pay a premium above the benchmark I've established in my head."

Among many others, I loved the idea of "A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth" & believe this can also contribute to anchoring bias (especially if you're in the habit of mumbling things frequently to yourself.)

Right & right. Thanks again.

Thanks for the rabbit holes guys (no really, thanks!) No real hypothesis yet, just not real aware of how these things work through time. My thought was that they'll maybe increase ownership of a biz (I'm anchored to the Bangalore airport situation with FFXDF) & eventually own all of it with management in place. What happens next? The shares are no longer traded so the previous NAV is no longer a determinant & the IV of the biz is? Do they just continue being a PFIC & take their share of the profits (I guess they could sell parts of the wholly owned biz too.) Maybe the structure is less important than I was thinking as long as the fractional ownership stakes perform in the market & any wholly owned business continues kicking up (and I'm assuming owning in a 401K gets rid of the tax burden?)

Yo I 2nd RK! I've anchored hard on bitch metrics in the past (historical PE, etc.) Trying to ignore them until until qualitative & quantitative issues have been scanned.

Sorry about triple post... I was under impression that once a PFIC always a PFIC so website seems wrong when they say "not PFIC" for 2016. Thanks! Any tips on how to search for a list of PFIC's? Tried Google & just came up with explanations of what a PFIC is & the tax implications.

Looks like they have the cash from the last offering to finance the expansion plan for the new property (the $770K tenant helps.) Low cost producer. Partnership with TGS (management says these guys have big hookups in Colorado) and the Trailer Park Boys! Who is Woodpecker Capital SA? (25K shares?) http://www.woodpeckercapital.com/woodpeckercapital.com/wpc/index_eng.php Might not buy but looking at it will be fun (oh, and hook me up with some of the Orwell - Alien Dog) Thread for 420 co's?

Can anyone cite some of these entities with timelines of more than a decade? I'd like to see how they operated over time.

No, I don't think that's a fair comparison: as you say, there's the cash position, and there's the fact that they started earlier than that chart, in 2015, and the Indian market was actually down in 2015. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NIFTY:IND Plus, I think it is better to look at how their investments are doing, than where FFI shares are trading. Here is the simple version of their story so far: Nov 2014 company founded Jan 2015 $1b IPO Jul 2015 $202m purchase IIFL ($75m more in Feb 2017) (The date is when the transaction is announced, the price is in USD at the value when it closed) Jul 2015 $149m Natl Collateral Mgmt Nov 2015 $19m Fairchem ($55m more in Jul 2016, via Privi which merged w Fairchem) Mar 2016 $386m Bangalore Intl Airport Apr 2016 $300m mostly bonds in Sanmar Chemicals 3q2016 $27 m Natl Stock Exchange of India Sep 2016 $225m credit facility (they had run out of $ to invest!) Oct 2016 $40m buyback authorization (!?), not used yet; shares were at $11 Jan 2017 $493m cash raise @$11.75/share Shares now at $13.85 (all $ values, including share price, in USD, even though shares trade on Toronto Stock Exchange); mkt cap $2.04b; book value $1.80b, so trading at a 13% premium to book. So if you take their word for the fair value of their holdings, they have basically accumulated $300m from their $1.5b capital invested, even after performance fees. And a third of that capital has only been invested 4 months, with the other 2/3 invested from about mid-2015 to mid-2016. Might as well ignore the $500m from this Jan, and that would give them a 30% return on the initial $1b, which doesn't seem crazy when you read the descriptions of the companies they bought. Eyeballing the Nifty, it is up probably less than 10% from its average value over the same 2015-2016 period. I think the premium is justified. D Upped the stake in Kempegowda. How do you think this looks in 5 years? Total ownership of the airport & a spinco? Rollup of the CHA / CFS industry & another spinco?

Looks like it cost $530M USD for the entire stake (including the semi-hidden assets.) Oh & lest we all forget (see attachment...) Can anyone speak to the possibility of a PFIC taking full ownership of a business? What do they do then? Spin out the stake? PFIC.pdf

It would have been great to have gotten in back at OMERS prices. I think the airport is very valuable (don't ask me how much, I'm not that guy.) Bangalore is the silicon valley of India & they have 460 acres of developable property (anyone who can provide locations of said properties will hereby be worshipped as a God!)

Bezos, Musk or Zuckerberg ;D

Looks like a Berkshire business on the surface. What will searching for Malone photos turn up next?

ASOS PLC looks fan-friggin-tastic! unfortunately, it has a multiple to match

Be the laundry pile & have vapid goals! Have u Tweeted that (I'd re-Tweet...)

He's sort of.. you should study how he (oaktree) raped minority owners in Pulse electronics. Bump (in the cue 4 a read...) G. Love & Special Sauce sound awesome (not related, just sayin)

I think your presentation of material behind this link does not do it justice. I almost did not click the link because of the quotes you posted. Then I clicked on it. And it's good. So let me try to entice others to click with this nugget: Click to read more. 8) Much better call 2 action (u da man...)

I believe in the miracle of wildcard characters...

Nice article even though I only understand a tiny fraction of what they're talking about. "The AI revolution has arrived despite the fact Moore’s law – the combined effect of Dennard scaling and CPU architecture advance – began slowing nearly a decade ago. Dennard scaling, whereby reducing transistor size and voltage allowed designers to increase transistor density and speed while maintaining power density, is now limited by device physics." Did the author mean not instead of now? No he meant now. Device physics is now a serious limitation to CPU scaling. I wonder the same thing myself. I missed NVIDIA too. I don't know, Apple keeps what it is working on secret, as I'm sure you know, but there are rumors. Apple Developing 'Apple Neural Engine' Chip to Power AI in iOS Devices I get some pretty good articles emailed to me from Linkedin. Maybe because I follow a bunch of tech related companies and people on LinkedIn. I read something pretty interesting about what Adam's could have meant by "42". 42 is the ASCII code for the asterisk symbol (*) on the keyboard. Which is sometimes used as a wildcard symbol when searching or in some computer code such as regular expressions. So what Deep Thought was actually saying is that the meaning of life, the universe, and everything is whatever you want it to be. Cool, to everything here & especially the wildcard thing...

He'd write stuff like this https://thederekzoolandercenter.tumblr.com/post/142653702524/you-suck-but-its-ok --- "Well I guess it all started the first time I went through the second grade. I caught my reflection in a spoon while I was eating my cereal, and I remember thinking - wow, you're ridiculously good looking, maybe you could do that for a career." DZ = Model of a Day Trader --- "Oh, I'm sorry, did my pin get in the way of your ass? Do me a favor and lose five pounds immediately or get out of my building like now!" Mugatu = Protection against Downside