DooDiligence

Cigarbutt’s posts are almost always very well thought out and useful. I second that.

I wonder what Dan Gable thinks about colonoscopy. ::) Probably should read: If it's important, do it now. If you enjoy it, do it often. If it's not important & you don't enjoy it, don't do it at all. I'd put colonoscopies in the "unimportant & unenjoyable" column. I'll probably die of ass cancer.

Tremors before a big quake?

Couldn't AirBnB disrupt these guys without taking on risk?

In other news, https://dealbreaker.com/2019/08/goldman-sachs-apple-card-subprime-lending

I hear Dildo is really nice this time of year. A lot of people pushing to get in there.

In other news, Canada finally apologizes for Ted Cruz.

I Googled "warren buffett buy japanese company" and came up with some interesting old & new articles. IDK enough about SoftBank to say, but this Forbes article speaks about Masa's attempt to buy Swiss RE and it made me think that he prob wouldn't mind being a part of Berkshires universe. https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2019/03/26/move-over-warren-buffett-for-this-200-billion-man-from-japan/#4fe2e8702107 --- This one wraps a hand full of icons together as a comparison to Masa, https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b14z9v4ccf7q2z/buying-warren-buffett-richard-branson-and-steve-jobs-at-a-discount --- and this one kind of throws shade on Masa's sun, https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/article/is-japans-warren-buffett-losing-his-mojo/ --- Then a Goole search of "warren buffett masa son" turned this up, where Masa tried to put the arm on WEB & Malone, https://www.wsj.com/articles/sprint-executives-have-engaged-warren-buffett-about-investment-1500055560 Could WEB have fallen under Masa Sons spell? Not quite sure how I'd feel about that. Living up to my signature.

Interesting read . It looks like Applied Underwriters was competing for business with Berkshire subs. BRK generally doesn’t integrate their subs and this one had minority interest outstanding, so even if they wanted to, they couldn’t without buying out minority interests. That’s one of the limitations with Berkshire’s modus operandi and a sale is the better option at this point. Also on a side note, workers comp claim stats tend to get far worse when the labor market goes cold in a recession, and competing with questionable side agreements (if I'm understanding this correctly). "DFS said that its investigation found that the formula the RPA used to calculate costs was “complex and the way in which it was presented to employers was misleading,” with a result being that many New York employers ended up paying more for coverage than they would have paid under the workers’ compensation policies alone, according to the officials." https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2019/07/19/533394.htm --- Has BHHC been experiencing the same 30% loss of premiums quoted for Applied or are they taking business away from Applied? Looks like NY has some opportunities now.

Maybe that stuff is irrelevant for stock picking but it's entertaining and the article is refreshing when compared to the intellectual consensus (entrenchment?) coming out of Jackson Hole last August: The World needs a lower USD and lower US-based risk-free rates. Mr. Mark Carney's speech was interesting. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf?la=en&hash=01A18270247C456901D4043F59D4B79F09B6BFBC He basically questioned the consequences of the disproportionate dominance of the USD in global markets and is suggesting (not a tax) an alternative based on fiat currencies. It seems like these guys have realized that the Bretton-Woods framework has lived and will take the next steps in stride. Applying the content of the article would likely result in a rapid reconciliation of the achieved-future-consumption-brought-to-the-present imbalance but i wonder if the author did a good job describing possible ramifications. Maybe those will be covered in a follow-up note. "Taxing incoming Chinese (and other foreign) investment. U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin and Josh Hawley in late July submitted a bill that would allow the Fed to impose a flexible tax on capital inflows. This measure would make it less attractive to park money in U.S. assets, thereby shrinking the capital account imbalance, and by extension, the trade deficit." I've been looking to buy a spot in the southern US. I guess i will have to look for alternatives. Mr. Josh Hawley (interesting protectionist name) seems to intermittently exhibit distorted logic. He is pushing for radical protectionist policies on the trade front but seems to be unusually globalist when he simultaneously pushes for 1-importation of public price control policies used elsewhere to cap drug pricing and 2-drug reference pricing policies based on prices of medications in foreign countries. This is turning into a swampy post and perhaps the US should tax all inputs originating outside its borders. Maybe they'll make an exception for our good natured northern brothers? ;) ---- Not really related but while looking to see if Trumpty had ever threatened a wall between us, I found this from the BS Journal ( a little bit Onion'y ;D ) https://www.burrardstreetjournal.com/trump-demands-canadian-border-wall-after-learning-mexico-not-only-country-adjacent-to-u-s/

Nice Tweet storm by Tren Griffin.

Agree 1000% but the Cheeto in chief is too stupid to see something as elegant as this. It also wouldn't be anything his base would understand, thus it wouldn't give him any buttons to push with them. He's a button pusher.

You know what Venezuelans said about Chávez early on: “ He runs the country like his hacienda”. The problem with the tariffs and the game of chicken that is played are the knock on effects on confidence. Now China is slowing down, Europe is slowing down and now the US is slowing down as well. How much of this is trade war and how much is just the long economic upturn petering out is hard to know. I don’t think that interest rates and rate cuts at this point are going to make much of a difference, rates are already too low to matter, imo. 1-Our era will be henceforth be known as the Limbo rate years. 2-Trump may not be able to claim the largest real estate transaction ever with a Greenland purchase but he's highly likely to go down as the man who filed the GOAT bankruptcy. 3-Just doing my part to stoke fear. :o (there's no goofy googley eyed emoji so this one will have to do...) 1-It's possible that a temporary truce can be reached with no material effect on the trade balance going forward so we may be in limbo for a while but the best limbo playing show that I've seen was in Hawai'i two years ago. It felt like the fire dancer was able to lower the ground. But it must have been an illusion. 2-Your previous reference to a default is interesting and, in 2016, this issue was 'discussed'. The USA defaulting on its debt sounds outrageous but the following reference originates from May 2016, at a time when negative interest rates were still not considered business as usual and when the left-leaning publication felt that the candidate did not stand a chance to win the contest. https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy-ideas-for-handling-the-national-debt-explained 3-Yeah, perhaps the idea is to be able to smile whatever happens and one way for this to happen is to be ready for any eventuality and to remember what Ferris said: "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." On a more serious note (keeping in mind the long tariff thread), I continue to think that the outcome will be highly conditional on the direction of the global economy as tariffs may only be a side show and not necessarily a precipitating factor. To those who say that walking on the edge of the precipice is OK if you know what you're doing, I can't help thinking about the Smoot-Hawley Act and Mr. Smoot's reaction to the reactions: those who don't support tariffs are un-Americans and use fake-news to spread their weakness. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-2019-protection-could-push-china-back-smoot-hawley Here's a reference from one of my favorite movies that I saw as a young adult and that offered one of the first glimpses into the American Psyche. So, can anyone explain what will happen in the event that the global economy really starts to lose steam. Anyone? Wow. I was unaware of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 30's. History sometimes repeats & rhymes (minus the horrible economy for now.) I had seen the piece on Trumps "renegotiation" / "discounting" of US debt instruments. Being able to buy back at a discount seems at odds with his call for rate cuts. I'm going to go out on a limb here & say that we've elected Zippy the pinhead. Bueller's 1st name is my last.

You know what Venezuelans said about Chávez early on: “ He runs the country like his hacienda”. The problem with the tariffs and the game of chicken that is played are the knock on effects on confidence. Now China is slowing down, Europe is slowing down and now the US is slowing down as well. How much of this is trade war and how much is just the long economic upturn petering out is hard to know. I don’t think that interest rates and rate cuts at this point are going to make much of a difference, rates are already too low to matter, imo. Our era will be henceforth be known as the Limbo rate years. Trump may not be able to claim the largest real estate transaction ever with a Greenland purchase but he's highly likely to go down as the man who filed the GOAT bankruptcy. Just doing my part to stoke fear. :o (there's no goofy googley eyed emoji so this one will have to do...)

Haven't the corporate tax cuts been largely nullified by tariffs? --- This guy is running the US just like he's handled all of his businesses. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he started blowing hard about defaulting on US debt. Wouldn't that be fun? --- As to how the Chinese are handling taxation. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/24/china-tax-cuts-may-offset-the-effects-of-trade-tariffs-economist.html

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever. cc: @netflix Done. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

The guy's an ass clown. China never confirmed that negotiation for a new trade deal have restarted after Trump tweeted that “China wants to do a trade deal badly”. I guess Trump probably just wanted the markets to stop tanking after he had been overzealous bashing China and ordering companies to stop doing business in China. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-trade-latest-trump-says-china-called-u-s-trade-team-twice-and-wants-to-make-a-deal-as-companies-are-leaving/ He's a legend in his own mind.

The guy's an ass clown.

Need to add: - uncontrollable compulsion to lie about literally anything

Our Cheeto in chief only wishes he had that kind of power.

Thanks. Here's 2 better ones you might have missed.

The young couple invited their elderly pastor for Sunday dinner. While they were in the kitchen preparing the meal, the minister asked their son what they were having. "Goat," the little boy replied. "Goat?" asked the startled man of the cloth, "are you sure about that?" "Yep," said the youngster. "I heard Dad say to Mom, 'Today is just as good as any to have the old goat for dinner.'" --- A rancher named Clyde had a car accident. In court, the trucking company's fancy lawyer was questioning Clyde, "didn't you say, at the scene of the accident, 'I'm fine,'" asked the lawyer. Clyde responded, "well, I'll tell you what happened. I had just loaded my favorite goat, Bessie, into the..." "I didn't ask for any details", the lawyer interrupted. "Just answer the question? Did you not say, at the scene of the accident, 'I'm fine!'?" Clyde said, "well, I had just got Bessie into the trailer and I was driving down the road... " The lawyer interrupted again and said, "judge, I am trying to establish the fact that, at the scene of the accident, this man told the highway patrolman on the scene that he was just fine. Now several weeks after the accident he is trying to sue my client. I believe he is a fraud. Please tell him to simply answer the question." By this time, the Judge was fairly interested in Clyde's answer and said to the lawyer, "I'd like to hear what he has to say about his favorite goat, Bessie." Clyde thanked the Judge and proceeded, "well as I was saying, I had just loaded Bessie, my favorite goat, into the trailer and was driving her down the highway when this huge semi-truck and trailer ran the stop sign and smacked my truck right in the side. I was thrown into one ditch and Bessie was thrown into the other. I was hurting, real bad and didn't want to move. However, I could hear ole Bessie moaning and groaning. I knew she was in terrible shape just by her groans. Shortly after the accident a Highway Patrolman came on the scene. He could hear Bessie moaning and groaning so he went over to her. After he looked at her, he took out his gun and shot her between the eyes. Then the Patrolman came across the road, gun in hand, looked at me, and said 'How are you feeling?' "Now, what the hell would you say?" --- and finally, --- A goat walks into a bar, sits down and orders a beer. The bartender, amazed that this goat can actually talk, gives him a beer. The goat says, "what do I owe you?" The bartender stops and thinks for a moment, "even though this goat is smart he probably hasn't been in many bars." So the bartender says, "that'll be ten dollars." The goat forks over the money and starts drinking his beer. After a few minutes, the bartender can't restrain his curiosity, so he walks back over to the goat and tries to strike up a conversation. "You know, we don't get many goats in this bar." The goat looks up from his beer and says, "well, at ten bucks a beer, I'm not surprised." --- If I was still a Catholic, I'd have to go to confession for this post. There is no god to punish me for telling crappy jokes.

Jerky chicken is great. I had some persistent coldcaller a while ago who wanted to drum up some funding for animal rights. Nothing really wrong with this, but I hate persistent cold calls. She asked me if I liked animals or not. I told her, it depend on how they taste like. That was the last cold call I got from her. I love animals. Just about anything taste good on the grill. I always wanted to tell a Jehovah Witness when they come to my door that I worship the Dark Lord Satan, but they are always so friendly I can never bring myself to do it. I tell them I'm Catholic, which is the same thing I tell evangelicals. I get evangelicals in my neighborhood A LOT & the look of pity on their faces when I say this is priceless. They may have my house targeted because of this. :D

I think this is an oversimplification. It's a concept. You want something more, go read a book. Thanks for another oversimplification.

I think this is an oversimplification.