ValueMaven

BV around $195 currently. Which puts current prices around 1.25x BV. Cheap!

Is it out yet??? I've suspected GE for sometime...

I say between $5 - $7B

Nothing

Man, Berkshire is sitting on a $100,000,000,000 paper profit in AAPL in just under 4 years. Amazing.

It's a brief DCF based on Insurance, BNSF, BHE, and MSR units. He aggregates it into a rolled-up SOTP's valuation.

Yes. Agreed.

Greg Warren is a very good analyst who has been brought back by Warren and Charlie over the last several shareholder meetings. This piece didn't generate enough hits when it was published (during the holidays) - but he is very thoughtful on his valuation case. It's a decent write-up and directionally correct. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1016064/how-to-value-berkshire-hathaway

Well said. BRK buybacks makes the most sense at this point. They can buyback $1-2B a month and not even put a dent into the cash cushion. At 1.2x BV its a 68 - 70 cent dollar with a lot of optionality + cash reverse + defensive growth.

Great find. Thank you. This group is fast growing with strong combined ratios. Frankly, the insurance bench below Ajit is extremely strong.

It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share. It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose. If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years. Cheers! The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns. ...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''. I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations. yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;) Even during the depths of the hedge fund crisis, when Fairfax stock fell to $53 USD, I don't remember Prem buying shares in such a significant amount. Frankly, I'm shocked that he put $150M of outside capital into Fairfax...that would be a decades worth of dividends for him. And if he didn't borrow the money, I would imagine that's probably half his net worth outside of what is held in Sixty-Two Corporation. Then again, I've got half my net worth outside of Corner Market Capital in Fairfax and Atlas Corp right now, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised...and I'm very comfortable with both and think both have 50-100% upside over the next 2-3 years! Cheers! What is the thesis on ATCO?

The more I thought about this cash ceiling - the more stupid I think it is... Also - does anyone know why BHHS is inside of BHE? Shouldnt it be part of the MSR 'grove'

Timely equity purchases? Improved underwriting at GEICO/market-share growth? improved margins at BSNF/PCP/Lub? continued energy/utility integration? aggressive buybacks? Need I continue? I have fair value pegged at around 68-70 cents right now.

21 years ago the famous article in the WSJ asked such a question. In a similar parallel faithful Berkshire shareholders are again asking this same question after a fairly material period of underperformance through 2018 - 2020 time-period. Berkshire is a vastly different company then in 1999 - with a much more durable business model/operating income profile in my view. Unlike the 1999 article, Berkshire has been buying back stock in decent size - but not all that all that aggressively, and is sitting on nearly 5x the amount of cash then was the case back then. With the world afloat of cash, central banks extremely accommodative, what should Berkshire do? Here is an idea: Management should publicly state to shareholders that we will allow cash to grow to say: $175B MAX - anything more will go directly to share buybacks - unless we view shares as overvalued - in which case we will stop. Stating a cash ceiling might be well received by investors, many of whom feel that the largest elephant Berkshire can bag is in an Omaha zoo. Buffett has stated before that Omaha is bringing in between $400M - $500M NET a week. Should should be fun!

Charlie also made some very interesting - but brief - comments on BNSF improvements etc. Very interesting.

Awesome book...finished it this summer. Made the mistake of reading it on my iPad however! Get a hardcopy

Yes. What a honor to watch this. Amazing how he was able to bounce topics so quickly.

From my understanding - and it is a fair point - if OXY wants to pay BERK in OXY stock - it is somewhat punitive. I believe they have only done this once and it was at an ~8.5% yield (via equity) See below: “Any shares of Common Stock so issued shall be valued for purposes of this Section 4(a) at 90% of the average of the VWAP per Common Share over each of the ten (10) consecutive Trading Days commencing on the Trading Day immediately following the date on which the applicable dividend is declared.”

If Warren thought BERK was cheap enough at $215 back in Sept - I wonder what he thinks now (re: buybacks) at $225 given all of the improvements around the vaccine etc. September was the single biggest month in terms of backbacks ever. Food for thought.

This is not an insignificant investment for Omaha. Wouldn't touch the stock (OXY) - but I'd imagine Omaha is breathing easier with the common shares more then doubling over the last month or so. Has anyone tried to triangulate a fair-market value for these? I guess you'd have to look at a blend of debt and equity to come-up a reasonable valuation. I'd be interested to see how OXY continues to pay BERK - either in cash, or stock going forward.

No. Other railroads have used Precision Scheduled Railroading, which basically limits the # of trains to very specific times and is not flexable for customers. It improves operating margins by 300-400bps for several reasons - but makes customers unhappy. Buffett has said that BNSF is gaining customers b/c BNSF does not use PSR currently.

Andrew Barry of Barrons. I enjoy reading Andrew. Has always interesting insights https://www.barrons.com/articles/shares-of-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-still-underperform-why-its-time-to-buy-51607428811

, and basically all others ending by : ? I think that is a very interesting point John. Might have to do with the International/Japanese time difference...or could mean something more. I dont know.

How are you getting $80B 10 years out?? Assuming another large deal? Growth in operating businesses would have to be in the mid-teens (using 2019 as a base assumption) to even have a shot...what am I missing?

Assuming 8% operating growth, w/a fairly recession proof business model, and a decrease in the share-count - you get some really interesting terminal value prices in 2030...BERK could retire $20B of shares per year and still be in a net-cash position each year - assuming operating income of ~$25B - ~$30B...and you still have the base $100B of cash on the b/s as well. Basically, I think this has become a huge cash generator/capital return story with a slightly below market-ish growth over the next decade.