Viking

Timely interview. I find Dalio hard to follow at times and this interview is long at 45 minutes :-) i especially liked his discussion of how he is looking at investing today (about 27:30 minute mark if you are pressed for time). My notes below were put together quickly; hopefully they are generally accurate. - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-04-15/ray-dalio-on-the-economic-impact-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-video Big buckets: - goods and services - will see deflation - asset prices: inflation (driven by central bank actions) - currency - devaluations Next 12 months world GDP will contract 4-5% Recession will be bigger than 2008; most comparable to 1930-1945. We will adapt. When central banks open the spigots, historically this usually indicates the bottom is in for stocks 2008 the issue was banks. Issues today go way beyond banks; who do you want to save? Where we go from here? - helps to look at it in two ways: countries and asset types - people will be looking for storehold of wealth - bonds are the clear losers today. Who would hold an instrument that pays zero or even negative interest rate? Currency risk. - some stocks will win: strong balance sheet and stable income - globally, there will also be winners and losers. Countries without a ’Fed’ will be losers (EM?) - other things to watch: civil behavior (income inequality)? Changes in tax rates? Severely different world moving forward: 1.) countries will be more self sufficient: health care; supply chain 2.) climate change When will Bridgewater get back to old normal? - current situation (working from home) is not a big deal; was contemplated and prepared for many years - will be very conservative with plan to return; this is a health issue - virus - history has shown these viruses come in waves - humans adapt

At the very end he says: “This is not short term... the effects.” Everyone better hope he is wrong. Another tidbit: Expedia spends about $5 billion a year on advertising... this will be less than $1 billion moving forward. Lots of other industries (not just travel) will be the same.

Have either of you heard a plausible explanations for the increase in insurance rates? That sort of jump seems very strange to me. Like, were these things priced to make a huge loss five years ago, or are the new high prices just to make a massive profit? I would've guessed that the insurance markets are close enough to efficient that a 100-300% increase in premiums without an extreme event would never happen. But I'm clearly wrong, so what's the deal here? From the article: What is the cause of the dramatic increases? In addition to worldwide catastrophes, we live in a high‐ risk earthquake zone, and with several major building claims in the province, there are a reduced number of insurance companies who are covering strata insurance in BC. The hardest hit regions are the high‐density metro areas, but resort properties and communities with large developments of more than 250 units are also feeling the crunch as they have the highest compound risks when there is a claim. In addition, with a limited number of insurers, increase in claims, higher property and construction values and a high demand for insurance, a supply/demand imbalance has been created where the insurers have imposed much higher costs and deductibles to manage risks.

Yes, the increases in insurance rates and deductables are are crazy. The increases are large enough they will certainly affect resale values at some point down the road. How do strata corporations and owners manage the dramatic increase in Insurance Rates? - https://www.choa.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/300-869-05122019-How-do-Strata-Corporations-and-Owners-Manage-the-Dramatic-Increase-in-Insurance-Rates.pdf Over the past few months across BC, there has been an industry struggle to renew strata corporation insurance polices. With renewals, the cost of the insurance has increased anywhere from 50‐300% and the deductibles to cover claims have also increased substantially, from manageable rates of $25,000 per claim to as high as $250,000 and $500,000. While not all regions of the province have been affected in the same manner, there have been targeted building types or large strata communities across BC that have seen the dramatic increase.

Where is Garth Turner? I think his prediction of a real estate meltdown in Canada just might come true in the next year or two. Canada is facing a potential three headed horseman: coronavirus, oil meltdown and housing bubble popping. Our housing bubble today is more bubbly than the US in 2007; the main difference being it is much harder in Canada to walk away from a mortgage. Government spending the past few years has been increasing rapidly (resulting in growing deficits) and taxes have been increasing. Regulation has been increasing. Traditional sectors of growth (resources) is no longer a priority for government; quite the opposite in fact (most parts of Canada hate resources as they polute the earth, are evil and are the work of the devil). Canada’s level of competitiveness might be at an all time low versus the US. Any ideas of a way to hedge the potential for a housing crash in Canada? (Selling my house is not an option :-) No credit default swaps to purchase. Short Canadian Banks? They are so protected by the government this might not pay out as expected. Is there a way to short property developers? One strategy i am using is to be quite cautious with my financial portfolio (mostly cash). A second is to hold US$: 65% of my financial portfolio is in US$. My guess is if Canada has a real estate crisis the Canadian $ will go much lower (and $0.71 is already low). Once Safer Than Gold, Canadian Real Estate Braces for Reckoning - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/once-safer-than-gold-canadian-real-estate-meets-its-match Canadian housing once seemed so infallible that the head of the world’s biggest asset manager in 2015 described Vancouver condos as a better store of wealth than gold. The coronavirus is putting that theory to the test. While lockdowns, job losses and uncertainty are roiling property markets from the U.K. to Australia to Hong Kong, Canada’s situation is more precarious than most. As its oil sector shriveled in recent years, Canada’s economy became ever more driven by real estate, an industry now in a state of paralysis. Nearly one in three workers have applied for income support. What’s more, its households are among the world’s most indebted, poorly placed to weather the storm. ...The country may not have much of a choice but to prop up housing. Real estate has become Canada’s largest sector. Including residential construction, it accounted for 15% of economic output last year; energy accounted for 9%. ...Recessions tend to be deeper and last longer when households are mired in debt -- an alarming prospect for a nation that may already be experiencing its sharpest contraction on record. Canadians owe C$2.3 trillion in mortgages, credit card, and other consumer debt, about equal to the country’s GDP, which is an even higher ratio than the U.S. had before its housing bust. “You have all of these flammable items that just need a spark, some external shock,” says Anthony Scilipoti, president of Toronto-based Veritas Investment Research Corp. “And this virus is a worst-case scenario none of us would have predicted.”

More dominoes will start to fall with each passing week. Lots of weak companies, like JC Penney, will declare bankruptcy. They all have a great reason: coronavirus. Management is not to blame :-) J.C. Penney Might File for Bankruptcy. What That Says About Macy’s and Other Retailers. - https://www.barrons.com/articles/jc-penney-stock-bankruptcy-department-store-retailers-covid-19-e-commerce-51586970318?mod=hp_DAY_1 After years of dwindling foot traffic and sales, J.C. Penney is reportedly considering a bankruptcy filing among its options to deal with the coronavirus shutdown. It is also considering pursuing an out-of-court debt restructuring or rescue financing, according to Reuters. The department store doesn’t necessarily need to take action soon; the company has enough cash to cover its $105 million bond maturing in June, ratings firms say. Fitch Ratings said earlier this month that J.C. Penney  (ticker: JCP) should have enough liquidity to get through the 2020 holiday season, and the analysts don’t expect a debt restructuring until next year. Across the industry, however, coronavirus-related shutdowns and widespread store closures have piled extra financial stress on top of the existing pressure of changing shopper tastes and the rise of e-commerce. March brought the steepest monthly decline in retail sales on record, with a nearly 9% slide from the month before, according to the Census Bureau. That means J.C. Penney certainly isn’t the only retailer feeling the pinch. Fitch Ratings downgraded at least eight retailers earlier this month because of the coronavirus shutdown. Among them were Macy’s (M), Dillard’s (DDS), Capri Holdings (CPRI) and Tapestry (TPR), all of which the firm downgraded to junk from investment grade.

So much we do not understand. There are enough stories like the one you posted for a rational person to not want to get the virus. If we find that there are long lasting health problems in many people who get the virus then the debate around re-opening the economy becomes quite different.

So how will the world look once we are ready to relax lock down? Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon ...Most of these ideas are essentially the same: The players live in quarantine, shuttling from the hotel to the stadium, for the duration of the season. They undergo daily COVID-19 tests. They bring joy to a terrified country. That seems reasonable on the surface. But look closer. First, let’s do away with the suggestion, put forth by President Donald Trump, that football season could go on as normal, beginning on time in September and unfolding in front of crowded stadiums. "We will not have sporting events with fans until we have a vaccine," says Zach Binney, a PhD in epidemiology who wrote his dissertation on injuries in the NFL and now teaches at Emory. Barring a medical miracle, the process of developing and widely distributing a vaccine is likely to take 12 to 18 months. ...The leagues know how farfetched their ideas are. So do the players’ unions. They continue to explore options because they would be remiss not to. But fans should understand how unlikely this all is. No one wants to acknowledge how far we are from ordinary life, says Kimberley Miner, a professor at the University of Maine who develops risk assessment for the U.S. Army. “It’s hard to stomach a lot of this information, so it’s not being widely shared,” she explains. ...But the reality is that even after we pass the initial peak of infection, the virus is still active. We have already lost more than 16,000 Americans to this disease. Bringing back sports soon would give people a reason to stay inside, a reason to feel hopeful. It would probably also cost more lives. “If people just decide to let it burn in most areas and we do lose a couple million people it’d probably be over by the fall,” says Binney. “You’d have football. You’d also have two million dead people. And let’s talk about that number. We’re really bad at dealing with big numbers. That is a Super Bowl blown up by terrorists, killing every single person in the building, 24 times in six months. It’s 9/11 every day for 18 months. What freedoms have we given up, what wars have we fought, what blood have we shed, what money have we spent in the interest of stopping one more 9/11? This is 9/11 every day for 18 months.”

Workers in tourism/hospitality industries will be especially hard hit. 43,000 workers moving to unemployment benefits. Hard to envision how a resort like this functions as restrictions are relaxed down the road (with social distancing measures likely remaining in place). And at what capacity. Disney World to furlough 43,000 employees - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/12/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-EMNBMEV3LZGJPAT3HTIXCSFKOU Walt Disney Parks and Resorts has become the latest company to temporarily lay off portions of its immense employee base. The Service Trades Council Union announced on Saturday that approximately 43,000 nonessential employees at Disney World, the iconic Florida theme park, will be furloughed without pay beginning April 19. Full-time furloughed workers will be eligible to sign up for unemployment benefits and retain group insurance benefits for 12 months. However, with uncertainty surrounding how long the theme park will remain closed due to covid-19, workers will go without regular paychecks until further notice.

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. And they can't change back? Not the point. I didn't say spending will end, I said it may be a possibility for it to dry up for the mid-to-long term. If that's the case, it will have tangible effects. EDIT: So even if they can change back, it does not invalidate my argument. Some things never change on a longterm context. 1.) People want to own homes 2.) People want families 3.) People want to be rich 4.) People want nice things Those four things will never change. Why? Because humanity is hardwired to overcome, innovate, and push forward. Those 4 things have survived hundreds of wars, natural disasters, diseases, and thousands of years. Covid-19 isn’t going to change that. If anything on a historical scale humanity has learned to recover and adapt faster and faster from “events”. The beauty of the US model is it will adjust and move forward for all the seasons you state. The Great Recession of 2008 is the most recent example. A huge swath of the population lost everything. But over a 5 year period the US slowly got through the recession. Most importantly if fixed the big banks. And as of 2 months ago it would have received my vote for best positioned economy in the world. So i am optimistic the US will get through the current situation. Just not sure of the duration/severity/timing (this is true for every country). I am less optimistic about other economies (like Italy and even Canada, to a lesser extent). Their economies are not as adaptive structurally.

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. I disagree and think once lockdown is lifted we may see a 1-2 week period of "tentative" behavior but will revert rather quickly afterwards, as people are quite frustrated with sitting home all day and night. My guess is older and people with underlying conditions will dramatically change behavior until vaccine is available. This is a substantial number of people. Also, people who are unemployed will have muted spending. Tough to buy a house or car when you do not have a job. Even employed people will likely have big bills to pay (back rent/mortgage, higher credit card balances etc). Tough to buy a house or car if you think your job is at risk. Who is going to book an overseas trip any time soon? Who is going to book a big event (wedding etc) any time soon? Movie anyone? Sporting events? Restaurant meal while socially distancing? Yes, a small subset of the population will be wanting to party on the beaches of Florida. My guess is economic activity will be muted initially and will come back slowly. How fast it comes back will depend greatly on all the ‘re-open’ plans. If they are not national, coordinated, well thought out, executed well and effective then economic activity is likely to remain low. Lots we still do not understand. This uncertainty will not be good for the economy.

How long will the government be able to keep consumers, small businesses and corporations on life support? At the same time they are ramping up health case spending? 8 weeks? 12 weeks? At what point does the cost become prohibitive? Absent a treatment (which would provide a short term solution) what it suggests is leadership will determine which countries are relative winners and losers. (The virus is the same everywhere.)

It's hard to say - when we had the bust in 2008, QE worked because implementing it would've helped the US in the short-to-mid term. Banks free up capital, they lend that capital and businesses spend. However, if banks lend capital, and business doesn't spend because they don't know what the world will look like in 6-12 months, then what happens? Fed can't pump an unlimited amount of money in the system, otherwise, it will cause hyperinflation or deflation. Valueinvestor, QE is the part of investing that i have the hardest time understanding over the past 10 years. I think it also messed Fairfax up for many years. My learning (without understanding the mechanics) is every time the Fed begins a new round of QE shortly thereafter we get stocks increasing in price. The Feds goal appears to be asset price inflation to create a wealth effect so people spend more in the larger economy.

WW1 was happening. Spanish Influenza was one of the factors that ended it. The troops returned home. The global economy shifted from war time to peace time and was starting from a pretty low base. International trade and government spending was much lower. Rural economy versus industrial economy. I think it is pretty hard to compare.

Yellin said the key is the duration of the current recession. The longer economic activity is shut off the more severe the economic down turn. More businesses shut their doors permanently. Unemployment moves from temporary to permanent. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore provide perhaps the best examples of what the next phase looks like. And it definitely does not look like V shaped recovery. However, recovery in every country was enabled by executing a nationally coordinated test (priority with rapid results), contact trace (built large organization to do this) and quarantine. Personal freedoms were restricted to enable recovery. And culturally the populations follow the governments orders. Even with all these efforts some countries like Singapore have had relapses and had to resort to lock down again. So it looks like this solution is difficult to execute and still not guaranteed to be successful. Most countries are going to struggle to execute an Asian strategy post-lockdown. Either they do not have the testing resources, are not prepared to infringe on personal freedoms or culturally are not able to execute (or some combination of the 3). This likely means their lock downs will last longer, their re-opening of their economies will be slower and new outbreaks of the virus will be more likely (with resulting return to lock down). This situation will be very difficult and will result in negative GDP growth. As Jurgis points out our best short term hope is treatment via the Pill. Timing? How effective? A vaccine is much further out (12-18 months). Bottom line, until we get a treatment (or some medical breakthrough) we will likely be screwed (from an economic growth perspective) resulting in month after month of negative GDP growth. Social distancing measures will remain in place. Older and high risk people will remain in quarantine. Airline, cruise, hotel, sit down restaurants, travel industries will remain in depression type conditions. Group activities (sports entertainment) will continue to be shuttered. Universities will likely remain on line in the fall. International travel will be minimal. Air bnb owners? All of these activities will put enormous numbers of people out of work. Regarding financial markets, all of the Feds actions may in the short term juice stock prices. QE always seems to result in higher stock market prices. And we are getting QE on steroids. Earnings and business prospects do not matter. I think it is likely that the Fed will be buying stocks should financial markets take out recent lows; they are ‘all in’ at this stage. And the White House/Treasury will be pushing them to do this. The good news is the US consumer is in pretty good shape. US banking system is well capitalized. Fed and Congress has been quick to respond. Canada is in a much more difficult economic situation: consumers are highly indebted, oil is big part of national economy, housing bubble. If the current recession causes the housing bubble to pop then Canada is in deep shit.

The crazy thing is we have all these unemployed people. We want to pay them for doing nothing. We also have this virus thing where we need a bunch of people to staff up a bunch of different things (like contact tracing)... Too obvious a fit? I am buying into the suggestion that Trump simply does not want to get involved. Too much personal risk. Better to let States and Municipalities struggle their way through it. Then he can come in after the fact and ‘throw some paper towel rolls to the needy’. Much better to sit in the weeds, let others fight the good fight and then come in as the dust settles with money, lots of ‘i told you so’ and look like the saviour. We lack the institutional capability to do it through existing institutions. The CDC isn't staffed to do nationwide contact tracing and neither are county departments of health. One would hope the CDC would have already created a set of best practices on testing, contact tracing and isolation of the infected, including, where feasible, isolating infected individuals away from their co-habitants (there are plenty of empty hotel rooms to use!). The responsibility for implementing would then flow down to state, then to county, then to townships/cities, then to individual precincts/wards/neighborhoods/blocks. Based on the desire to help that I've seen among my neighbors, I believe there would be a surplus of volunteers willing to, for example, deliver food to the houses of those required to stay at home because of actual or suspected infection. If the President/Governors were to announce that this level of organization needed to happen, and all of our modern communication tools, including Facebook, were harnessed, I believe many areas would be organized down to the block level within a week. But, to my knowledge, none of this has been asked of us, and nothing of the sort is being organized anywhere in the United States. I don't understand why we haven't been preparing for that, even if we hope never to have to use it. The other big benefit of federal leadership would be funding support from the President and Senate Republicans. The money for needed expensive new initiatives needs to come from congress.

The crazy thing is we have all these unemployed people. We want to pay them for doing nothing. We also have this virus thing where we need a bunch of people to staff up a bunch of different things (like contact tracing)... Too obvious a fit? I am buying into the suggestion that Trump simply does not want to get involved. Too much personal risk. Better to let States and Municipalities struggle their way through it. Then he can come in after the fact and ‘throw some paper towel rolls to the needy’. Much better to sit in the weeds, let others fight the good fight and then come in as the dust settles with money, lots of ‘i told you so’ and look like the saviour.

What needs to be done after ‘lock down’ is starting to become clear. The question is when will Trump figure it out? More valuable weeks are being squandered. With limited national direction and lack of funding at the state and local level (to hire needed resources such as armies of contact tracers) then ‘lock down’ will likely need to be in place longer. States that end lock down too early (before having infrastructure set up to test, trace and quarantine) risk seeding new outbreaks. And outbreaks in these states risk spreading virus back to well managed states. It is becoming more clear to me that a national strategy is critical to successfully manage the virus. This also is the quickest solution. But Trump does not want the political heat that will come with this strategy. Looking further out it is also clear that an international strategy is also required. This would get global economy back the quickest. We all know Trump is looking for less international cooperation not more. Bottom line, the next couple of months will be very interesting. Lots of fat tail risks, getting fatter with each passing week. A plan to defeat coronavirus finally emerges, but it’s not from the White House - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/ A national plan to fight the coronavirus pandemic in the United States and return Americans to jobs and classrooms is emerging — but not from the White House. Instead, a collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown. But there is no evidence yet the White House will pursue such a strategy. Instead, the president and his top advisers have fixated almost exclusively on plans to reopen the U.S. economy by the end of the month, though they haven’t detailed how they will do so without triggering another outbreak. President Trump has been especially focused on creating a second coronavirus task force aimed at combating the economic ramifications of the virus. Administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say the White House has made a deliberate political calculation that it will better serve Trump’s interest to put the onus on governors — rather than the federal government — to figure out how to move ahead. “It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”

Liberty, i am not sure where you find all of these sources :-) Please keep them coming... If anyone wants to understand exactly where the US is at today, and what it will take to re-open, watch this interview. - re-opening: perhaps early June, in limited way - key enabler to reopening: nationally coordinated testing capability able to prioritize tests so high priority people get results back within 24 hours and contract tracing can happen immediately. - Today testing results are not coordinated or prioritized at a national level; sounds like a helter skelter approach (he also inferred if you pay $ you can get a very quick result and be tested every day if you want). - Gates was pretty emphatic that what is done with testing in the next 7 weeks will determine how comprehensive and successful the re-opening phase will be. - very confident a treatment will be found in the next couple of months, which will help. - vaccine is likely 18 months away (perhaps a little sooner if all goes well).

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle.

Here a couple of links i found on Calculated Risk blog: COVID-19: The Square Root Recovery? https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2020/04/07/covid-19-the-square-root-recovery/ Three Things Will Determine If There’s an Economic Depression https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-06/how-to-keep-coronavirus-recession-from-becoming-a-depression ...The U.S unemployment report for March foreshadowed the ugly numbers to come as the economy’s sudden stop sidelines entire sectors. The prospect of double-digit unemployment rates raises the possibility that what is now the “Great Suppression” will become the next Great Depression. This raises an important question for market participants: What separates a depression from a recession? A starting place is to consider the three “Ds” of a depression: Depth, duration, and deflation. ...One bad quarter does not make a depression. In reality, the long-run health of the economy depends on controlling the virus. Whether or not this economic collapse turns into a depression still depends on the actions of policy makers in coming months.

Definitely positive. Our President (Cuomo), who has already accomplished the highest volume of testing per capita (even though NY is among the most populated states), is now talking about antibody testing -- those with proven immunity to be let out first. Seems like a decent strategy, but the concern is that may be too small a number to celebrate "reopening". Nice to have a cautious, reasoned leader though. Just elaborating a bit about what's going on here about Denmark [Perhaps Per [CoBF member perulv] will elaborate a bit about what's going on in Norway] : Schools class 0 - 5 will open just after Easter [will create an enormous productivity gain for the parents still working from home! [ : - ) ]]. Pupils in the highest classes will start in school, too, to prepare for exit exams. The intent is to gradually & carefully build herd immunity, in a controlled & closely monitored way [& roll-back, if things start to escalate again]. It reads right to me - We will eventually end in the Stone Age, if this continues - an extreme hard lock-down on March 12th 2020. More oxygen to zombie businesses hit by this under discussion. Better than nothing, & just for starters. - - - o 0 o - - - As a #metooCOVID-19? without access to testing [as of now] to get clarity, I have today found a short-cut : I'm an inactive Danish blood donor [have been a donor since I turned 18]. About 15 years ago I deactivated my account, because I was running on/off on pain killers for a bit less than a couple years because of a bad back. Tomorrow I'll activate my account again. The Danish blood banks use the taps for COVID testing, providing data to get a handle on the dark COVID numbers. John, please keep the updates coming. It is great to get first hand information from countries that are a couple of weeks ahead of us regarding what the next phase might look like in other places :-)

I wonder if this risk (getting sued for not providing a safe work environment) slows getting back to work... https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-estate-of-walmart-employee-who-died-from-covid-19-sues-company-for/ The family of a Walmart Inc employee in Illinois who died after contracting COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, has filed a lawsuit accusing the retail giant of failing to adequately screen and protect workers. The lawsuit filed in Illinois state court on Monday by the estate of Wando Evans says the Walmart store south of Chicago was not properly cleaned and employees were not given masks, gloves, antibacterial wipes or other protective equipment. Evans died on March 25, and another employee at the same store died four days later from complications due to COVID-19, according to the complaint.

Exhibits A and B for my point. Not to worry too much about the fools of randomness as the key concern for those who take this seriously was that policy makers would be among these people. Thankfully, we have seen the vast majority--even those that dragged their feet--take it seriously when reality became impossible to ignore. Even the guy calling it a "hoax" just a month ago now claims he was on board the serious person train the whole time! As policy makers have largely understood seriousness (though some variation depending on where you live), the systemic threat is reduced. Those who continue to minimize the threat confine a large part of the consequences of their views (ignorance) to themselves which is the appropriate outcome. TL;DR: don't waste time on the fools of randomness--I certainly will not. i watched a 45 minute documentary of what actually happened in Wuhan, China. It was a health and economic disaster. And then the disaster played out again in Iran and Italy. This was not a Hollywood movie. Not fake news. Yes, people it really happened :-) -

Greg, you might want to watch this video from March 2. The doctor was from one of the hospitals in New York. He was not able to test for the virus. No tests were available. And he was freaking out. Washington State had the exactly same problem. Doctors KNEW they had virus issues. But they were unable to test. - The CDC completely screwed up. Their screw up allowed the clusters to form in Washington State and New York. The clusters in Washington State and New York then seeded the virus in many other regions in the US. This well documented. The current health and economic costs being bourne by the US are primarily due to the incompetence of the CDC. The US did not start testing for the virus in numbers until mid March. By then the genie was out of the bottle. The CDC is a federally funded organization that takes its direction from the White House. Watch one of Trumps daily updates if you dispute how close the White House is directing the actions of the CDC. ——————————- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the leading national public health institute of the United States. It is a United States federal agency, under the Department of Health and Human Services, and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.[2]