SafetyinNumbers

I think it’s important to note that holders chose to redeem less than allowed at previous redemption dates of DC.PR.E and that will likely be the case on June 30, 2019. Its possible, they will trade like DRM.PR.A which trade at a premium to par and are puttable at any time.

It makes no sense the CRA makes Canadian residents do this for foreign securities held in Canadian brokerage accounts. Isn't the point to capture all income that wouldn't be captured by T-slips? I use Quicken so it lets me produce reports that makes it a lot easier. Also, all foreign dividend income should be captured by T5 slips.

Checking in on this combo pick for 2018, at the end of Q1, they are up an average of 20.51% since posting. I wish I had only owned these names personally for Q1 as I am about flat YTD. I still like them all but took some profits on ASND between $1.10-1.20 but have recently bought some back below $1. It still trades at less than 2x EBITDA. PPR is particularly interesting as it’s basically flat and is 3 months closer to resolution of its arbitration vs the Canadian government which could be worth US$1/share vs the current share price around US$0.33. Management indicated in its AIF, filed late last week, that they expect a ruling in 2018. It’s also 3 months closer to Quebec coming up with its regulations on hydrocarbon development in the province. PPR’s closest peer in terms of acreage in QC is Questerre which enjoys a market cap 8x as big while having similar exposure and less cash flow and reserves from producing assets.

Adding to JAG.TO. Update today about increasing production from Pilar mine and putting high cost Roca Grande mine on care and maintenance. Overall no change to guidance for 2018 but implication is lower costs. I see it trading around 2x EBITDA with gold potentially breaking out.

E-L Financial (ELF.TO) Market cap around C$3.2b but 70% owned by insiders and trades at over 35% discount to NAV. About a third of NAV is a life insurance company in Canada, called Empire Life, and the rest is a global value portfolio.

It's worth noting that the B shares will reset next year and given the 5-year bond is at 2.15%, that would produce a 13% yield on the B's at $12.00. And would anyone be that surprised if the 5-year was 3% by next year? If we reset at 3% then the yield on the B's will be very close to 15%! Also if you own the Ds at that point you can ask to convert to the Bs if you want to lock in for 5 years.

I am long as well. Didn’t want to give the impression I didn’t agree they were cheap but was trying to answer the question.

I'm surprised less than half of those that were allowed to redeem at par did so! They could have redeemed at par and bought their position back below par. The yield on the D's prospectively is closer to 11.3%. It lags the move in 3 month t-bills and changes every 3 months as I'm sure you are aware. The BIR.PR.C has a YTM close to 11% (as they are puttable) that are close to that yield. There are some listed bonds with similar YTMs as well.

ASND.TO just put out 2018 guidance this morning. The company has a market cap of US$45m and their guidance is EBITDA of US$32-40m and FCF of US$14-20m. I’m not sure what the right multiple is but it seems too low right now or even up 50% from here. https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6899444052652449&qm_symbol=ASND

Any particular names? Based on 2018E and not all have analyst coverage but GCM.TO (gold), ASND.TO (zinc), JAG.TO (gold), and PPR.TO (oil). PPR also has a few other catalysts with respect to Quebec shale assets which currently have zero booked reserves. ASND.TO just put out 2018 guidance this morning. The company has a market cap of US$45m and their guidance is EBITDA of US$32-40m and FCF of US$14-20m. I’m not sure what the right multiple is but it seems too low right now or even up 50% from here. https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6899444052652449&qm_symbol=ASND

Any particular names? Based on 2018E and not all have analyst coverage but GCM.TO (gold), ASND.TO (zinc), JAG.TO (gold), and PPR.TO (oil). PPR also has a few other catalysts with respect to Quebec shale assets which currently have zero booked reserves.

It seems like the price action in a lot of commodities has already been very good and a lot of equities associated with those commodities have lagged. I find this to be the case in microcaps in particular where many names trade at less than 3x cash flow.

Noranda Income Fund (NIF-U.TO) and Prairie Provident (PPR.TO) I still like both. I thought net assets would act as lower bound for NIF following the end of a long-term contract with Glencore but I was wrong when combined with the dividend elimination and labour strike. Still trading below net assets and well below book value. The strike is now over and zinc prices are hitting 10 year highs. We'll have a better idea of earnings power soon but Glencore controls the manager and might have an interest in keeping earnings suppressed. I have heard some rumblings of activist involvement which might come to fruition before the next AGM. As for PPR, it's a cheap oil and gas stock, trading at a third of reserve value while having two potentially giant catalysts relating to its Quebec shale gas assets (resolution of law suit + legalization of drilling). Both appear to have high margin of safety with decent upside.

How much has your life changed after a 12000% year? Congrats, that’s awesome.

How much has your life changed after a 12000% year?

The gas price (AECO) is obviously awful too which impacts some but not all companies. The differentials between WTI/WCS usually ebb back and forth so eventually they will come in again. I think the interest is well timed as 12/27 was the last day for tax loss selling for Canadians. I own PPR, ATU, IPO, CPG, and GXE. All oil weighted and trading well below peers on valuation. PPR is the most interesting if you like event driven optionality as they have some Quebec assets that may become suddenly very valuable (regulation changes) and a lawsuit with the Canadian government (arbitration hearings completed in Nov) that should be resolved in 2018. All of that upside is for free as the current producing assets and reserves exceed the value of the current EV. Goldman Sachs owns over 50% of it as well so I think once the Quebec catalysts play out, they will sell the company.

I'm finding value in small/micro cap commodity/energy stocks. Two that trade below 2x FTM EV/EBITDA are GCM.TO and ASND.TO. The former being a gold company in Colombia and the latter being zinc in Honduras. Both are growing and will be free cash flow positive next year at current commodity prices. On the energy side, PPR.TO, trades at closer to 4x EV/EBITDA but have giant catalysts worth potentially more than the EV of the company in a NAFTA lawsuit (that has already had its arbitration hearing) and legalization of Quebec Shale development where they have huge acreage but have booked zero reserves. Perhaps a third each for one 2018 pick!

There's probably too much margin of safety for them to invest in their own stock right now. Makes them uncomfortable. In all seriousness: I understand the need to maintain liquidity, but I'd like to see them put money into their own stock (or buying back prefs or whatever) rather than make new speculative investments. Pare the operations back to focus only on rationalizing the existing portfolio. Once the market starts giving them some credit, they can try to grow the company again. But the liquidity is to redeem the E class preferred isn’t it which is like buying back preferred.

They can’t buyback shares because they need liquidity to pay down the preferreds that are puttable. You may not like it but there is logic to it. As a D class preferred holder, I appreciate that too. Ha! Yeah they're real short on cash or something that can be turned into cash to buyback the common shares. Sell off some of that consistently disappointing position in Dundee Precious Metals... At the head office level, the corporation held cash of $53.0-million and a portfolio of publicly traded securities with a total value of $194.5-million at the end of the third quarter of 2017. All true, but they also have a ton of expenses to run the business annually so if you shrink the assets to much, the management expenses get too big as a percentage. I’m not saying it’s a good reason but it’s why they don’t buy back stock now when they did when the stock was 10x higher.

They can’t buyback shares because they need liquidity to pay down the preferreds that are puttable. You may not like it but there is logic to it. As a D class preferred holder, I appreciate that too.

Bought a little more ELF.TO.

I bought some T.PPR as well. But also T.IPO and V.ATU. What’s equities these symbols? Can‘t for the life of me find what kind of security these are. They are all listed on Toronto or Vancouver. Don't need a prefix or extension on this site: https://www.tmxmoney.com/en/index.html

I bought some T.PPR as well. But also T.IPO and V.ATU. What are the most important metrics you guys use to value these? (both on a relative and absolute basis) I mostly look at EV/DACF, P/reserves, make sure the debt isn’t too high and that they can grow within cash flow. Feel like there is high margin of safety in those names but they aren’t participating as much in rally because of liquidity and tax loss selling (especially PPR).

I bought some T.PPR as well. But also T.IPO and V.ATU.

Does anyone know how to get the gold price from Google Sheets? I’m asking under this forum because gold is a currency (probably).