Dalal.Holdings

It’s amazing that Putin went into Ukraine “because he didn’t want NATO on Russia’s border” and as a result he got exactly that and a stone’s throw from St. Petersburg.

They should seize these ships/cargo until they have compensation for damaged underwater infrastructure. If this happens to U.S. undersea assets, these ships will meet the U.S. Navy and it won’t end well for whichever states are involved.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/26/world/europe/finland-estonia-cables-russia.html It's great to finally see a European nation standing up for itself. I hope this is the start of a new trend. But then again, the Finns generally go pretty hard for Euro standards

Nat gas in the U.S. is amazing because it has been good for everyone except nat gas producers. Just shows what can happen in the energy sector...

Pretty crazy and reshaping auto oems around the world and will affect energy around the world

I find myself often wasting time factchecking AI output that often turns out to be false. AI outputs currently represent midwit thinking to me at best. Furthermore, and perhaps more concerning for the firms spending tens to hundreds of billions on this, I can find very little difference from one AI platform to another. If you will note, the two earlier bubbles: Crypto and Metaverse have been ultimate duds. Before that it was "people will use crypto instead of Mastercard" or "buy NFTs" or "buy real estate in the Metaverse!". No one even talks about the use case for these two things anymore. Even Zuckerberg who changed the name of his firm--what does he really have to show for it? The Raybans? An iPhone moment it was not. AI also seems very overhyped and, as I noted, no one can really answer the question: where is the Revenue? What is the ROI on all this capex being spent on chips and datacenters? Of course, no one it really thinking about that and it therefore all has the makings of a bubble. And the ultimate sign that AI might deflate? It sounds like Quantum Computing is the next place for speculative capital to go: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4389387-as-quantum-computing-stocks-soar-wall-street-analysts-take-bullish-stance

The Top feels close.

So is this the next bubble? I guess we'll go from Crypto to Metaverse to AI and then Quantum Computing? And then Fusion Energy? That's the order, right? The amusing thing is that none of these so far has fundamentally altered my day to day life, so I'm not sure where the Revenue to fund these things is coming from. But it's not like Revenue matters anymore, amirite?

@John Hjorth the news item I am discussing is quite simple. German energy fragility has resulted in a big price spike in energy prices for people in southern regions of nordic countries. In this case, due to a lack of wind. So, German energy fragility (lack of consistent base load power which previously came from nuclear) means energy fragility for other countries too. Here is another source: https://www.dw.com/en/combating-high-energy-prices-in-the-eu-though-more-coordination/a-71094111 I quoted the current Norway energy minister—is that someone who is not a reliable source? My understanding of Norway is that they have lots of hydropower up north and is a major producer and exporter of oil and gas—western Europe’s largest producer. Please feel free to correct me where I’m wrong. This is consistent with a theme in Europe I’ve been repeatedly pointing out: the people in the driver’s seat in the EU and Germany in particular have been extremely shortsighted with just about all of their policy choices. It seems like the German/EU people themselves endorsed these policies, personified by people like Angela Merkel, Lagarde, Ursula, Thierry, etc. Whether shutting down nuclear, being dependent on Russian gas, overregulation (esp in tech), uncontrolled immigration etc. It was all just short sightedness without any consideration of potential first, second, and third order effects of these decisions which are now being borne across the continent.

Well I'll be damed it does I still think taking on Starlink with 290 satellites is a total waste

The very smart people over at the EU thought they needed a viable alternative to GPS system, so they built $10B Galileo system which took over 20 years… https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/world/europe/galileo-outage.html After all the spending and time/resources spent on this project, does anyone use it instead of GPS? Even the Soviets were able to cut through their bureaucracy and achieve great things in space. The EU though? EU gonna EU

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/opinion/germany-scholz-government-election.html

A big IF on whether Europe’s $11B project even amounts to anything. Probably ends up like CA high-speed rail.

Who wants to take bets on whether this will ever come close to being a viable alternative to Starlink vs just a waste of $11B? Europe is focused on the wrong priorities

https://www.ft.com/content/39d8e496-ddd2-486d-9306-da699687ee9a Merz sounds like a fiscal hawk pro-austerity guy (not Keynesian). The German constitution also limits annual structural deficits to 0.35%. Not reassuring for Deutschland. Why is Germany so stingy with fiscal spending?

Yep. Back surgery went well based on his reddit posts and his pain much better. His wealthy family even apparently owns some nursing homes in MD that are poorly rated--wonder why Luigi or the populists against the healthcare system haven't looked into that... But again, the mind of someone who likely developed a psychotic disorder is not a rational one https://nypost.com/2024/12/13/us-news/luigi-mangiones-family-operated-nursing-home-empire-that-was-cited-for-abuse-and-health-violations/

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b621a1-54f2-49fc-acc1-a660e9131740 If only if environmentalist lobby that has taken control of Germany could have foreseen the obvious consequences of eliminating base-load nuclear power. Now Europe will have to learn the hard way. Unlike the EU, Norway has been very smart in its development of energy sources...

It’s amazing that up until recently that Europeans couldn’t acknowledge anything wrong about the path they were on. And yet the Ursula’s and Lagarde’s are still in charge of the mess they created

I guess I detected sarcasm where there was none. The thesis folks had was when the majors acquire the small shale players (like Exxon and Pioneer), they would show more restraint and rationalize production so that the U.S. supply boom that has driven prices down would end. Looks like Exxon is not going down that route…

Lol...

Interesting if you think lower production costs means higher crude prices. To me, it means the exact opposite. https://investor.exxonmobil.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1178/exxonmobil-announces-plans-to-2030-that-build-on-its-unique Does anyone read the above to mean less oil supply? Does anyone read the above and think production "restraint" and "discipline" ?

Good job, Europe—you did it! #AIAct

https://nypost.com/2024/12/10/us-news/accused-ceo-murderer-luigi-mangione-screams-its-an-insult-to-the-intelligence-of-the-american-people-as-he-arrives-for-extradition-hearing/?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost&utm_medium=social Someone who was clearly a bright young man with a bright future clearly lost his mind. Risk factors for developing such mental health diseases need to be discussed by society. It is not discussed enough that recreational drug use (even marijuana) increases the chances that a young person will develop schizophrenia, a lifelong debilitating condition that is extremely difficult to live with and often results in homelessness, crime, suicide, etc. These drugs are glamorized in culture that young people partake in -- podcasts (Joe Rogan), music, etc. Even silicon valley types love promoting "micro-dosing" of psychedelics, ayahuasca, and general experimentation. Anti-drug enforcement activists never discuss the downside of drugs, laughing about the risks of marijuana whose use has become widespread with much more potent forms readily available and "decriminalized". As younger and younger individuals consume more cannabinoid products at higher dosages, we will likely see more people develop these psychotic disorders and ruin their lives. I would take any young person and show them a schizophrenic individual and let them know that every time they use a drug like that, they are increasing the risk that their brain ends up fried just like that individual.

Experimenting with psychedelics is risky in that there is a risk of losing your mind There is even a purported connection to early (teenage) marijuana use and psychosis later in life. A lot of the marijuana products out there are a lot more potent than they use to be https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25774457/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33617756/ https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/young-men-highest-risk-schizophrenia-linked-cannabis-use-disorder