Dalal.Holdings
-
Posts
2,632 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Dalal.Holdings
-
-
On 2/17/2023 at 6:48 AM, dealraker said:
My NSC stock, an 82 plus year family holding, is going to get precisely what it deserves and what its chanting shareholders deserve. The grievance dance will go from operating ratio envy to lawsuit/collapse/survival obsession.
Why not just...sell it
-
11 hours ago, UK said:
Interesting. I am not sure if I understand this chart correctly, but if inflation really soon will be decreasing as the chart suggests and will reach 2-3 range sometime after start of 2024, would not that be extremely bullish for the next 2 years? And before 2025 just go back to BRK and cash again:)))
The chart says to not pay too much attn to monthly CPII look back at the past to learn that the future is not so predictable and to exercise caution, I’m sure some people don’t look back at all…
-
1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:
On a high level, Malone complex companies tend to underperform in a higher interest rate/ tightening credit environment. The reason for this is that they generally operate at quite high leverage. That's my simpleton thinking.
The fact that the media business has been challenging as of late does not help either.
They didn’t perform all that gloriously into low rates and loose policy thru last yr tho -
Arthur Burns was fooled when inflation seemed to "finally cool off" in 1974...turns out it was only "transitory"
-
"Bitcoin is disinflationary/deflationary by design."
Yet over the last 12 mo, the value of the dollar has declined at rapid rate and Bitcoin's dollar value is waay down...
Why? Interest Rates.
Rising rates are the nail in the coffin for this and everything like it. Buyer beware.
-
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-14/ftx-s-balance-sheet-was-bad
Matt Levine's piece on FTX. Quite a read.
What happens when you un-tether yourself from fundamental tenets like "investments should possess cash flow" is that you can become un-tethered to reality...
People will be reading about this in financial history wondering "WTF was everyone smoking?" decades from now...
And yeah, looks like Michael Lewis is working on a book which will surely turn into a movie a la Big Short
-
If the BTC network has utility, why does a token on said network need to possess value? What is the proper value? $16,000 per one BTC? Why not 16 cents? Why not $16 million?
Barcodes have utility and the more retailers use them, the more "network effect" exists promoting their usage across the industry--however I would not ascribe value to an individual barcode...
Does my IP address have value?
What about my phone number? $16,000 ?
"Ignore Bitcoin, it's a mirage" QED
-
9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
So, these 10k people that Amazon lays off are going to be working construction in the future and don't need Word or Excel any more? Yay!
Based on popular Tik Toks showing a "day in the life of a Meta employee", etc:
I think that soon the current shortage of workers in restaurant/airport/service industries will be addressed. Not sure they'll need Office365.
-
AMZN cutting Office365 subs by about 10k now…
-
5 hours ago, Charlie said:
It always surprises me that when Buffett and Munger say that cryptocurrencies are worthless,
there are thousands of intelligent people arguing otherwise.
Buffett and Munger have a very, very high success rate with these predictions.
The counter argument is always that Buffett doesn't understand crypto.
That's like saying Einstein doesn't understand the relativitaets theory.
An asset is worth the discounted cash flows.
Since crypto doesn't produce anything, they are worthless....
Crypto people always come up with elegant theories, but investing is simple.
The elegant theories are probably made from the people who are selling or
profiting from high crypto prices or are technology people, which like the
technology aspects of crypto.
Investing is simple, but not easy.
The arguments supporting bitcoin: “it went up a lot for a long time” can be used for Tulips and Beanie Babies.
I’m gonna listen to the guys who have successfully compounded money for over 70 years. Other folks will listen to a guy who throws a football (Tom Brady) on investing.
I’m just gonna keep it simple and buy cheap cash flows the bear market provides.
-
I'm very surprised this needs to be said on a Value forum, but:
The FTX saga is just the beginning. These things will not survive above zero interest rate environments.
Like Warren said, "bitcoin is a mirage"...
-
3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:
Yep its been a virtuous circle -
VC firms fed into start-ups......start-ups bought ads......ads drove valuations of earlier VC investments.....which beget more VC investment & performance records.....which attracted more outside capital.....which fed more startups....who bought more ads and services from 2nd generation micro-services start-ups....which drove valuations........
I've a friend in tech........who's startup company just did an audit of all the 'hot' SAAS services they built their enterprise stack on......not to save money but rather to understand if any of these services were to cease existing....how might their workflow & internal processes be effected........counterparty service risk is real when you've built your company on top of every hot B2B software startup....legacy companies sitting on Office365/SAP/Oracle.....rarely have to ask themselves such questions.
META and TWTR imminently cutting back on their Office365 and Adobe subscriptions.
You'll see this at a large scale as the startup ecosystem goes thru a mass extinction event.
The revenue isn't as "sticky" as everyone thinks.
-
I'm just glad I got to live through a decade of VC subsidized cab rides and food delivery
-
12 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Would just add that despite the ~80% collapse in BTC this year, it's still the best performing asset class over a 10-year period (and probably the last 5 years too).
Everyone taking celebratory circles on it's decline are still missing the bigger picture and only looking at the last 18 months (a period characterized by increasing adoption and acceptance btw)
Most crypto is a Ponzi. I'm happy to see most of it go. But there is definite promise underlying things like DeFi and BTC.
For an example? Aave hasn't halted deposits, stopped paying interest, been hacked , etc. despite collapses of Voyager, Celsius, and now BlockFi all who are in the same business. It's been the centralized entities that have proven problematic.
If anything, I think this demonstrates the robust nature of a lot of these protocols and the benefits of the DeFi complex when it's done right.
Bitcoin is a ponzi. Greater Fool Theory in action. I don't need to think beyond that.
-
I'm just glad we've returned to a time where Bankruptcies are possible Again! ...
Going to be a wild ride
-
49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
The ads are targeted . Google is very good at finding out what you are interested in. I got a lot of ads from car dealers and car companies because I was researching cars about a month ago for example.
I have yet to see an ad from any of those business you mentioned above.
I think folks will be surprised by how incestuous tech is and how big Tech is not immune...
Many firms are Dead Firms Walking
-
Watching YouTube this weekend.
Ads by DoorDash, Lyft, and Peloton.
If you know, you know.
-
Quote
President Joe Biden will call on Congress to consider tax penalties for oil and gas companies accruing record profits, according to a White House official, amid stubbornly high gasoline prices that are dragging on Democrats’ midterm prospects.
This guy is just plain stupid.
-
President fails to confront his glaring failures on Energy Policy:
Meanwhile, CEO of XOM:
“There has been discussion in the U.S. about our industry returning some of our profits directly to the American people. In fact, that’s exactly what we’re doing in the form of our quarterly dividend.”
-
4 hours ago, Parsad said:
I never owned any tech other than Overstock.com and Apple briefly for two years. But today, about half my portfolio is now big-name tech. I'm down about 2% YTD. Buy when others are fearful! Cheers!
Large swaths of tech investors did far, far worse than down 42% YTD because not only did they buy FAANMG, they bought stuff like SHOP, SE, COIN, NET, FSLY, etc etc
The mentality that tech could do no wrong and pricing stuff on revenue multiples, optimistic future growth projections, and assuming revenues as recurring indefinitely proved catastrophic
-
when everyone and their mother thought investing was as easy as “just buy big tech” it should have raised some flags…even the “pros” like Li Liu were piling into these.
-
The bear mauled META to death today after 10 months of torture.
GOOG and AMZN have been whipped.
The way to outperform the bull market was -- Buy Tech
The way to outperform the bear market seems to be -- Avoid Tech
-
At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding. If you have high expectations (future high growth) for your investments in a world shifting from low rates to higher rates, well then good luck.
Recent results from GOOG, META, NFLX, and the rest are showing you that these companies do not behave like their shareholders thought they would when interest rates go even slightly up...
-
Here's a list of them. Many of them--IBM, Sears, GE, Phillip Morris, J&J, P&G, Kodak, Disney, McDonald's were big components of the U.S. economy in those days...
And you can see many of them had P/E ratios in the mere 20s or 30s...
http://economics-files.pomona.edu/GarySmith/papers/Nifty50/Nifty50.html
Cryptocurrencies
in General Discussion
Posted
I see that today the entire crypto market cap is about $1 Trillion. This amount could instead be put into T-bills and earn $50B a year in what they call risk-free return...
So the question becomes why would anyone in their right mind "invest" in such stuff. The old argument was that it was "inflation resistant" which has been thoroughly eviscerated.
Rates are slowly killing this entire space as anyone in their right mind would expect.