Dalal.Holdings
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Posts posted by Dalal.Holdings
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We all need to calm down and take a deep breath.
What we are experiencing is the decline of the American empire --- the decline of its importance on the world stage. This happens to all great empires eventually. Nonetheless it is painful to watch.
In the early stages the decline proceeds somewhat slowly and therefore is largely ignored by most observers. The decline speeds up as time passes and when this happens denial is no longer an option. Many try to cling to the glory days of the past but the decline continues and cannot be stopped no matter who is in power or what policies are put into place.
In order to make this as easy as possible on my American friends I say build the southern wall with Mexico. Let’s begin construction of a northern wall with Canada as well (of course the US will pay for this one). Close other borders points---airports and ports as well.
Let the rot from within accelerate and let the implosion of a once great American society come to its final inevitable conclusion.
Sad to watch for sure but there is no way to stop it.
Disagree. The problem with America is not an inevitable decline, but a decline in certain domains (ie. manufacturing). We still dominate in many other areas (i.e. tech). Many people (particularly those in the middle of the country and the uneducated) were hurt by the shift away from manufacturing. The question is if those jobs can be brought back. We (like every other nation) will always have people who do not pursue higher education and there should be opportunities for them. The Germans seem to do a nice job with that. I personally would support moves by the current admin to bring those jobs back in some form (i.e. Tesla and SpaceX are great examples of American manuf brilliance and one reason why Trump seems to respect Elon Musk).
The fear with the current administration is creating self-inflicted problems for the United States. An example is the immigration order which we know would have no real effect at stopping terrorism (and may make things worse), but is largely done for show to some of Trump's/Bannon's erratic base. What was the point of putting those 7 countries and excluding the Saudis? What was the point of excluding green card holders? Were they just the countries where Trump Hotels don't have branches? Such actions are just for show to the moronic base, but they harm America's standing and in the end will make us less safe, not more.
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:D
Remember, it was Obama who wanted to "take our rights away". LOL
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A federal judge temporarily halted our moron-in-chief's executive order. Warning: POTUS butthurt meltdown imminent...
Dude overplayed his hand. He had the ability to accomplish a lot of things early in his presidency as most Presidents do if they play their cards right. Most presidents start their terms by trying to unite the country behind them so they can accomplish key points in their agenda. He, however, has succeeded in bitterly uniting his opposition against him in just a week. He could've avoided this whole immigration issue by letting green card holders in while still halting refugees (this bit of nuance probably lost on him since he's not a details guy when it comes to policy, hence the title moron-in-chief).
Guess this will be a wake up call to him that his powers can be checked. He could've instead tried to lower corporate taxes, bring back manuf jobs, etc etc but he goes down this stupid irrelevant path, now it won't be so easy...
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Too bad this guy didn't have a green card. From 2011:
"One Iraqi who had aided American troops was assassinated before his refugee application could be processed, because of the immigration delays, two U.S. officials said."
Media outrage then, zero. Media today, hair-on-fire.
Yes, the all powerful media is out to get you. Keep swallowing that White House propaganda + butthurt.
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Buffett on immigration...but what does he know...not like he's given this much thought! Cheers!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-what-i-tell-people-who-are-anti-immigration-224409573.html
The headline should be: "Buffett attacks his self-created strawman."
I've never met a serious person who is against legal immigration.
Well, the new executive order on travel restrictions also includes green card holders for now. So those that have already gone through the legal immigration vetting process are now being held at gates and borders. Cheers!
"...for now."
A temporary measure until vetting system is put in place.
Unfair you say?
Remember, Obama did the same with Iraq refugees in 2011. Media outrage at the time = zero.
Obama didn't ban green card holders, so your point is irrelevant.
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And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.
This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.
Where the problem arises is with all the namby-pamby, tootie fruity protests like the Women's March, where millions of people are now attempting to discredit our incoming President on the world stage before he has had the chance to Make America Great Again. We must remain diligent and not allow these radicals to take us off course when we are so close to seeing through our plans of the first American National Bankruptcy.
No one understands the knife's edge that America is on like Donald Trump and it is time that those of you who haven't supported him buck up and put nation before ideology.
The hypocritical butthurt is real.
People will protest trump, he'll have to learn to grow a thicker skin. I remember when Trump tried to discredit his predecessor by doubting whether he was born in the U.S....
Karma is a b**** and at least Obama could handle criticism and not melt down every time he felt his poor ego was hurt. So much butthurt.
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FDR, Churchill, Reagan, etc do not compare to Trump on the level of distortion of truth and downright lying. You can look at other leaders in Europe during the 1930s to get an adequate comparison to Trump...
Some people here would really benefit from reading George Orwell: "alternative facts" might as well be from the Ministry of Truth. Don't make yourself so easily fooled by propaganda.
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Like, do you actually want to live in a country where your president lies openly to you? Do you actually want to live in a country where the government literally controls the media?
Well, would you like to live in a country where the media can freely manipulate the news for their own gain without sanctions? Because that is what they have now...
I don't think one is better than the other for the people but the right winged goverment in control of the media would be better for us investors (at least short term).
On the plus side: on this first day Trump was able to get more fat women out walking than Michelle Obama could in 8 years. ;D
Are you joking!? Do you know what the first amendment is? The press does not have power to listen to your phone calls, launch missiles, drone strikes, and send special forces to your door. The president does. I'm not sure why so many people in here are so butthurt and scared of the media, it's the president who should be held to a higher standard.
As for reporting of "facts", the last president literally had certain news orgs claiming he "wasn't born in the u.s.", birth certificate wasn't real (peddled by the CURRENT president), "wanted to take everyone's guns away", etc etc and we never saw this level of butthurt from him!!
The fact that this president makes his very first press conference about this is very telling. And the reactions on this thread reveal which investors are loyal to the truth and which don't really care much for it. Sigh.
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I think its great he is holding the media accountable. The majority of the media is liberal so this should be expected. Why shouldn't they be called out?
Since everyone likes to put these discussions in an investing framework: Imagine listening to a conference call where the CEO states that revenues increased by 25% YOY whereas a simple calculation shows there was actually a decline of 10%. The CEO not only stands by his numbers when challenged, but is pissed that analysts are questioning him. Then, in response further queries, the company's general counsel (or VP investor relations) states that the 25% increase is an "alternative fact". I just don't get how any rational person/investor could not be alarmed by this behaviour.
Yes, there's always spin. But generally in the world's respected democracies the spin is not with regards to readily established facts.
All this said, my biggest fear is that Trump's narcissism makes him very manipulable. He is clearly preoccupied with his own grandeur to a degree incomprehensible to the average person. Fortunately there are some smart people around him to help guide the ship.
Bump.
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"Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important?"
Presumptuous and misleading question. The conference was on truth in news reporting, as evidenced by two examples of dishonest reporting. But it was clever of you to miss the forest for the trees purposefully in order to get the little jab in about it being unimportant.
Some people think truth in news reporting is important. Maybe you don't.
Except for the fact that it was Trump and team being dishonest about crowd sizes, not the media.
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This I think is the most likely scenario. There was a story out during the campaign that he asked John Kasich to be his VP and if he accepts, he (Kasich) would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy. Kasich asked, well what will Trump be in charge of? And the answer was "Making America Great Again". lol
It's obvious that Trump only cares about his self image and wealth. He doesn't have the patience, discipline, or desire to do the work required as President. He rewards his loyal backers by delegating his powers. This is a good thing in some instances. Like, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Gary Cohn in charge of economic policy - great. Scott Pruitt and Rick Perry heading the EPA and Energy depts - not so great. NRA in charge of gun policy - frightening.
I was thinking of that Kasich story exactly! His cabinet picks seem conventional (relative to himself), and so that is my hope.
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I'm an Independent, and after reading enough of the wiki leaks material that was released from the Democratic Party. I will have a hard time voting for a Democratic again. The corruption and absolute contempt for the middle class is absolutely disgusting. I could care less about Donald Trump's deficiencies. He has smart people around him and he will adapt to the job. I'm sure in an unconventional way which will keep the powers that be on their toes.
Not voting Democrat because of wiki leaks is like if you had two companies to invest in, one of them (Company A) had full disclosure (all 10-K's, 10-Qs, proxies, etc etc) and the other (Company B) had no public filings. You see some things in A's filings that are a bit shady, so you then opt to put it all in Company B which you have no info on.
That was the 2016 election. We had full info on one candidate (tax returns, a decade of e-mails, decades in the public spotlight) and almost no info on Candidate B. And many like you went with B because of bias against info released against A (without similar info about B to judge fairly).
Wikileaks had info on Candidates A and B, and the intelligence agencies suggest that, with influence from Russia, only info on "A" was released to affect outcome of the election.
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To add, this is the most fascinating thing I watched this weekend, and I think Ray Dalio is on point:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-18/the-crisis-of-the-middle-class-davos-panel
The question is: will Trump be aggressive and thoughtful or aggressive and reckless? The signs from this weekend are not reassuring. The hope is that he focuses on superficial details such as his image and defers on the more critical functions of government to others.
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Sanjeev, over the past 18 months we all have enough information on Trump to understand exactly what his character is. Since he has become president elect we also have ample evidence that nothing has changed. To me the surprising thing is that people are actually surprised he is now saying that he will not release his tax returns. And complaining at first press conference about crowd size gave me some comfort that my read on he man and those around him is accurate.
It is clear to me that the Trump presidency is going to closely parallel many of the nationalist governments running European countries in the 30's. Those governments were welcomed by their people in the early years. He will implement policies in the coming weeks and months that will be supported by those who voted for him.
The really interesting thing to me is Trump has not actually done anything yet... wait until he actually starts running his government. And attacking those who oppose him. And attack the media. I don't think my comparisons to 1930's European governments is going to be too far off.
You're comforted that Trump parallels nationalistic leaders in Europe during the 1930s??
His first press conference and address to the CIA were worrying in that he can't let petty things go.
"Alternative facts"!? Are we going to start doubting the numbers on Jobs, GDP, etc etc?
A large portion of the U.S.'s prosperity is due to its credibility--if that falls, then so will the country's AAA rating, status as reserve currency, etc, etc.
The hope is that Trump only focuses on trivial things like crowd sizes and leaves the meat of governing to his more conventional cabinet picks.
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So from your model of how credit should vary with interest rates, you'd argue that a planned, gradual expansion of interest rates should result in credit expansion as "buyers" of credit seek to lock in temporarily low rates? Trying to think more about this model...
On a related note, I recently watched an interview with James Grant (of interest rate observer) where he essentially described fixing rate as no different than price controls.
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But I stand by my main point about the whole payroll tax argument being nonsense.
No idea where you're assuming Buffett ever said anything about raising payroll taxes. What matters (and what Buffett focuses on) is the percentage of total taxes paid by an individual relative to total income (why the secretary example makes sense: total taxes/total income). Emphasis added to WB's words:
Job one for the 12 is to pare down some future promises that even a rich America can’t fulfill. Big money must be saved here. The 12 should then turn to the issue of revenues. I would leave rates for 99.7 percent of taxpayers unchanged and continue the current 2-percentage-point reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll tax. This cut helps the poor and the middle class, who need every break they can get.But for those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains. And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate.
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Meanwhile he makes 99.9% of his personal income through capital gains and dividends. So even if they were to raise payroll taxes to an infinite income ceiling, or even if they were to raise the income tax rates on high incomes to compensate, it would make no difference to his tax liability!
Funny how he rarely talks about raising the dividend, capital gain, or corporate tax. I wonder why that could be ...
You're absolutely wrong--he's been talking about raising capital gains taxes all along: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html?_r=0
Straight from the horse's mouth:
While the poor and middle class fight for us in Afghanistan, and while most Americans struggle to make ends meet, we mega-rich continue to get our extraordinary tax breaks. Some of us are investment managers who earn billions from our daily labors but are allowed to classify our income as “carried interest,” thereby getting a bargain 15 percent tax rate. Others own stock index futures for 10 minutes and have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they’d been long-term investors.Job one for the 12 is to pare down some future promises that even a rich America can’t fulfill. Big money must be saved here. The 12 should then turn to the issue of revenues. I would leave rates for 99.7 percent of taxpayers unchanged and continue the current 2-percentage-point reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll tax. This cut helps the poor and the middle class, who need every break they can get.But for those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains. And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate.
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The IRS cuts deals all the time. I just watched the documentary on Scientology. The scientologists pretty much bullied the IRS into cutting a deal with them. And that was the 90s. Imagine decades earlier.
I would be surprised if Buffett didn't cut a deal with the IRS at some point in his life. He's been in business over 60 years and we all know he is desperate to avoid taxation, did he not try to write off his bicycle as a business expense when he submitted his first tax return!?
I would be shock it at some point in his career he didn't cross the line at some point. To cross swords with the IRS doesn't make him a crook, however at the same time you can't help but think his attitude to taxation is more of a "do as I say" rather than a "do as I do".
This so called Buffett hypocrisy on taxes is laughable. Fact is that he made his early fortune when tax rates were much higher than now--he actually had a tougher playing field.
Question For Those That Voted For Trump
in General Discussion
Posted
Oops, looks like our POTUS doesn't always "know how to win": White House walks back on green card portion of executive order (which was pushed by Steve Bannon).
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/29/us/politics/white-house-official-in-reversal-says-green-card-holders-wont-be-barred.html
This whole thing reeks of poor execution and underlying incompetence.