Dalal.Holdings

Youtube video: Ackman seems to get that an extreme upfront response will prove less costly than a slow, incremental response. His 30 day lockdown call seems excessive however. We already have a great example of how to tackle this outbreak in S Korea--extensive testing, then quarantine the positives even if they have few/no symptoms. You do not need extensive lockdowns to stop this. Extensive testing seems to be the most cost effective way to stop spread and spare the economy. We continually refuse to learn from other countries...

as we always have been, nothing new here. we could have put our economy in lockdown every winter to contain the spread of the flu. only imagine how many lives of the elderly we would have saved. we never did though. car speed limits vs pedestrians air polution vs the sick and i can go on and on and on. if we would prioritize lives over everything else, nothing would still get done. and people would still die (because that's what people eventually do). It seems some people seriously lack the ability to comprehend the "flatten the curve" to avoid healthcare overload concept. Seems really simple, but some people still do not get it. In other news, “The president ordered a Navy hospital ship with 1,000 beds to head to New York Harbor.” NYC just had a handful of cases 1-2 weeks ago. Now ICU/vent overload is a very real threat. If you think that the response to flatten the curve is overblown (esp after witnessing Italy), time should not be wasted arguing with you.

Some of us have been pounding on the table..."Tests, Tests, and more Tests and follow S Korea as an example". Thankfully some local governments like NY have picked up the tab from failed federal efforts (who botched test kits and prevented a Seattle ID doc from testing in late January/early Feb). A benefit often ignored about testing even asymptomatic/mild cases is that the probability that positive people will take shelter and stay away from elderly/vulnerable increases and the probability of further spread declines. Those people can self quarantine for a few weeks until viral shedding drops off.

This is incorrect, and dangerous thinking. It is true: accurate information is a critical factor, but it is not possible for humans to obtain such early in these viral outbreaks. The pandemic response is warranted - the precautionary principle is the only guide that would ensure the survival of the species. In these situations, you don't need accurate knowledge of the probabilities in order to know what to do. Our emotions and stress are wiser guide than our intelligence in deciding how to react. Strongly agree with this. That's how the precautionary principle works. When there is wide uncertainty with a lot at stake, you err on the side of taking things seriously and overreacting. I would have thought more people on this board would be fans of the margin of safety, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ By the way, I haven't been paying attention to the US election. Did Andrew Yang win? I hear the US Gov't is handing out cash now. Yes Andrew Young (UBI), Liz Warren (student loan interest rates forgiven) won, Bernie (Medicare for all) is next. It’s free for all, Airlines, Cruise lines are already fed in the soup line. Shale and Energy is begging. I guess the lobbyists for all the industries are working overtime. Clearly, we have an extraordinary economic situation, but it is still surprising to see much more government intervention than in countries that are called socialist here. I’d be more in favor of something that helps individuals, if we have learned anything from the GFC it should have been that. Probably the wrong thread for this comment, but I doubt Democrats will go along with handing money to shareholders. Warren has come out with an 8-point "litmus test" for "bailouts to corporations." I like Warren much more than most people on this board appear to, but even I think much of it is misguided, though I expect she's just layout out a bargaining position. Shareholders don't need a bailout, hourly wage workers who are out of work need the bailouts. Maybe restaurants and other small businesses. Every time the fed lowers rates, it's a bailout to holders of financial assets (non-ordinary folk).

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths This is what you happens when you try to combat a viral outbreak by listening to "nudge boy" behavioral economists and pseudoscientists. Rapidly achieving "herd immunity" sounds good on paper, but then you have to actually think about what will happen on the way to getting there... Some people still clearly have not learned the basic "flatten the curve" concept.

This is incorrect, and dangerous thinking. It is true: accurate information is a critical factor, but it is not possible for humans to obtain such early in these viral outbreaks. The pandemic response is warranted - the precautionary principle is the only guide that would ensure the survival of the species. In these situations, you don't need accurate knowledge of the probabilities in order to know what to do. Our emotions and stress are wiser guide than our intelligence in deciding how to react. Strongly agree with this. That's how the precautionary principle works. When there is wide uncertainty with a lot at stake, you err on the side of taking things seriously and overreacting. Better to over-react and survive, albeit with damage, than to underr-eact and die. "In order to succeed, you must first survive" --WEB

This is incorrect, and dangerous thinking. It is true: accurate information is a critical factor, but it is not possible for humans to obtain such early in these viral outbreaks. The pandemic response is warranted - the precautionary principle is the only guide that would ensure the survival of the species. In these situations, you don't need accurate knowledge of the probabilities in order to know what to do. Our emotions and stress are wiser guide than our intelligence in deciding how to react. Strongly agree with this. That's how the precautionary principle works. When there is wide uncertainty with a lot at stake, you err on the side of taking things seriously and overreacting.

The numerator would also be smaller. Change in mortality rate would depend on which changes more. So what are those people dying from? Run-of-the-mill coronavirus that typically causes common cold?

Also: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/ "By the end of February, a Berlin start-up had produced 1.4 million tests for coronavirus to ship around the world. The US said no thanks; we can create our own. " "Zero responsibility" Trump virus "like the Flu" in February but in March "very bad" doing 10/10 great job!

So what you are saying is that we have a lot of false positives out there. That would mean that the denominator of cases is potentially smaller than we think it is and the mortality is higher. That would not be reassuring to me.

No it starts to increase March 1st, now that is giving a generous 14 day time to death! So we still have to wait some more? I've attached the graph here. You seem misled by the x-axis labeling. I guess you are entitled to your own facts if you choose... It should be noted that in addition to real COVID cases, something else that can explain the spike in these numbers is awareness of COVID outbreak leading to more people going to see healthcare providers who otherwise would have powered through a non-COVID URI illness on their own.

Take some pain upfront and get out quickly or drag your feet and the cumulative pain will be much worse... "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" A useless saying (to some).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html So we have a virus with 1) a long incubation time, 2) many individuals who catch it having mild/no symptoms (i.e. not knowing they have it unless they are tested for it), 3) easy spread via respiratory droplets, and 4) high mortality in certain subgroups such as elderly. Essentially it is a deadly virus for certain subgroups with a rapid rate of spread in the wider population. Though a majority of cases will be mild, the sudden surge in severe cases overwhelm healthcare systems which already have low capacity. This explains why we have seen what we have and why widespread testing is necessary--ie do NOT limit tests to high risk/symptomatic people, but let those healthy people who have it know they have it so they stay away from others/elderly. Most people may in the end get this, but if you concentrate all infections in a short time period (weeks--months), then the surge in severe cases (though a minority) will overwhelm. There are people arguing with anecdotes that it has been in the U.S. in large numbers for months--never underestimate the power of anecdotes (to mislead). We are merely weeks behind the Euro countries.

I agree, give out a 1-1.5k per month loan at zero percent interest with a 3 year re-payment plan of some type. Or we could let people learn their lessons from overspending and to save? Or we could all model ourselves after our commander in chief and never take responsibility for any of our bad decisions in perpetuity. Oops, threw in some politics but can’t help it when we blame ordinary folks for this crisis. As after 2008, the bailouts will flow to the non-ordinary folks while the little guy gets rekt thanks to mentality like this.

It is only after markets crash and the economy takes a huge hit that some people will appreciate how “cheap” strong, preventative measures taken in February of 2020 to stop the spread of this would have been. Some people will never appreciate that fact. Can someone explain to me the benefit of the FDA denying this Seattle ID doc way back in January the right to test patients? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.amp.html

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile. You're saying that you're not seeing it. But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what. So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected?? I never said I'm not seeing it. I currently don't have testing avail other then the protocol I just said came over from DOH. How can I diagnose someone without a positive Covid-19 test? I am seeing what you posted in that tweet. High increase in flu like symptoms with negative flu. I have made that clear I think multiple times haven't I? No they are not testing bodies at the morgue. You asked about testing people who come in with flu like symptoms. I don't believe I have heard of any cases of DOA(have you?) covid-19. Today, if you have someone on life support/ventilator anywhere in America I would hope to god its known whether or not they have Covid19. I don't mean to put words into your mouth, but I think you have said that a lot of people are infected and we're not seeing the deaths, so the conclusion is that CFR is lower than what's out there. So I'm asking - is the disconnect with what other countries are seeing that both infected and deaths are undercounted (vs. just denominator being undercounted)? Just another thought on this. That tweet said flu like illness spiked March 1st right? Assuming those were all new cases we are now 15 days out. If your only self quarantined for 14 days then it could be broadly assumed that your chance of dying is high in 14 days right? That being said is it reasonable to assume there should have been a HUGE spike in deaths? Its been 15 days right? How many in NYC 3? False. They spiked in the days leading up to March 12 as the graph clearly shows. Literally took 2 seconds to confirm.

Tweet taken down. Crossed my fingers it was all untrue.

Strongly agree.

Why would the Democrats bail out Trump here? The Dems will pass whatever they think will help, and the GOP will take it or leave it, and then face the voters. Anyone who thinks big business shareholders are gonna get bailed out by the Democratic controlled House in an election year...please write puts. True dems have control, but dems have wanted infra spending. They may not want to bail out Trump, but if this becomes a systemic crisis they will have to act. In Sept 2008 when Lehman failed and Obama was debating McCain, Pelosi approved Bush admin bailouts (after it came up to vote for a second time).

They should do infra. But they can't really do infra or anything economy boosting until the pandemic has passed. OK, they can actually throw money on producing tests and building ICU units in 2 days like China did... They could throw money at delivering meals to people who are out of work because of shutdown and quarantine (assuming there's a way to do it safely). Possibly would cost less and deliver more than just cutting the rates. BWDIK. Exactly--healthcare infra. Maybe subsidize delivery boys with sterile gloves on for groceries/restauarant to keep those places in biz. Problem is that Trump-Pelosi relationship has soured, but in a crisis might be repairable.

Monetary Policy has hit its limit. What we need is fiscal spending on the order of 1940s--why not? Gov't can borrow at like 1% for 30 years and spend on infrastructure, etc. That might be what actually causes inflation to occur in the end.

Yes, the experts are right. This is going to be awful. Sounds like he's in touch with an intensive care doc at the hospital dealing with the worst of the worst of this in the United States. I hope this is an extreme case. I don't want it to be true...

I really hope this is not true... If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout... It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

Exactly. The virus is really getting going and there is a lag of, say 6 weeks, until you see the deaths. There is widespread, undetected, uncontained community spread in the US. Canada is seeing that when we test people coming from the US. Major parts of the US will look like Italy shortly. Canada is probably a week or two behind the US. Q: if you start with 1 case and it doubles every 3 days, how long until we actually notice it? It will take many doublings until we feel it and news picks up. Furthermore if mortality is in single digits, it will take even longer for us to notice it. This has been here since January but exponential growth starts slowly with small numbers until they snowball and you can no longer ignore it. See my Berkshire example. To think that just because there were a few cases in Jan implies there were millions in the U.S. at that time is a major major stretch. Ok so we will say it doubles every 3 days, so its been 2 months. Thats 20 doubles? So your comfortable with saying there reasonable suspicion there are 1,048,576 infections in the area alone where this gentleman is with no apparent stress on the healthcare system. And that being said there is still the rest of the state to be counted and so far 60 deaths? Yes the power of doubling time is a sight to behold, ain't it! You're right if it were 3 days (which is a very aggressive estimate), it would be ~250k right now (not 1M) since first case Jan 20. In reality the doubling time is longer. And your original claim was that millions have had this for months was it not? The real world is quite messy--esp when dealing with small numbers. For example, what if those initial few cases back in January were mostly hermits who stayed indoors and played video games all day? The doubling time would be much longer than if they were instead yoga instructors. With exponential processes like this, there is a lot of randomness earlier in the course because there are fewer individuals involved. Once you get a critical mass, the trend gets smoother. But obviously you don't care about thinking about compounding on a higher level like you don't care about the Berkshire example. Your experience and that of the healthcare professionals you are in communication with trumps this kind of low level analytical thinking. Futures open in less than 40 min!

Better answer for him: "If you truly think the whole world is wrong and you are right, the futures market opens at 6 pm EST"