Pelagic

To clarify, the smaller Switchblade 300 is around that $6k price. The larger 600 version is in the $50 to $70k range. It does seem the US and Western nations have vastly underestimated the effectiveness of small drones. Perhaps because their own precision guided munitions are relatively cheap and very effective they presumed that any near-peer adversary would have similar capabilities. And Western nations have also likely invested a lot in anti-drone training and countermeasure systems that limit the effectiveness of small drones against their forces. And again probably thought near-peer adversaries like China and Russia had similar training and capabilities. The Switchblades for instance were primarily designed for use by special operations forces giving them additional range for strikes on high value targets. They were never produced in the kind of numbers that would make them a primary offensive weapon simply because the US had almost limitless supplies of better options. Now we're seeing commercial drones dropping modified mortar rounds on targets of opportunity and the defense sector is salivating at the opportunity to sell their own "better" versions to the military. I'd imagine we're going to have a number of systems similar to the Switchblade available soon.

I think we're going to see a dramatic shift in public opinion as the western world starts to see some of the photos coming out of Bucha and other cities northwest of Kyiv that have been recently liberated. Buying Russian gas, or any other concessions to Russia, is going to be a politically untenable position when there's significant evidence of Russian troops mass executing Ukrainian civilians who had their hands bound. Civilian deaths that up to this point might have been rationalized as collateral damage are now very clearly murder. I'd be surprised if there isn't also strong public support for military intervention.

Ukrainians executed a pretty strong counterattack into the Sumy region to relieve the city. Depending where they were they could have felt surrounded caught between the city's defenders and Ukrainian forces pushing to relieve it. Again, regardless of which side they're pretty clearly conscripts with little information of the bigger picture. Which is something we're likely to see a lot more of in the coming weeks/months. Russia is going to look to minimize public casualties and try to use troops from occupied regions, mercenaries from places like Syria and the CAR, Wagner group etc. to obfuscate the real cost of the war to the Russian public.

Pro-Russian territorial forces from Donbas most likely. Guy on the far left (rear of truck) has red armbands. Ukraine has plenty of grad rocket systems too, both countries share a lot of the same weaponry. And Ukranians likely never had time to pull forces from the Donbas area to defend Sumy.

I did Philmont when I was 13, I think the 10 day trek, it's an awesome experience. Make sure you have comfortable light weight rain gear to wear while hiking there.

Good thread on underinvestment in the O&G space. A poll in a comment below of O&G executives and their reasoning (shareholder pressure to increase capital returns) for not drilling is also interesting when you compare it to the narrative in the media which mainly focuses on blaming government/environmental measures.

Good summary of the war. Russia failed in its initial objectives and now a stalemate that neither side can break is likely going forward. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19 Keep looking for Russian propaganda plays like the hypersonic missiles, more big bad scary Chechens being sent to fight, etc. Their real impact is likely to be quite limited but Russia uses them as domestic propaganda wins and they get the western media in a frenzy too. As stated above the main strategy is going to be massed artillery on Ukrainian cities in an attempt to break Ukraine's will to fight. If conventional bombing of British, German, and Japanese cities during WWII taught us anything, it won't and will likely have the opposite effect. Article that raises some questions about the hypersonic missile for instance: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

Ironically there are some Taliban fighters heading to Ukraine to fight with the Ukrainians, killing Russians being their raison d'etre and whatnot - maybe they'll bring the leftover US equipment with them. Likely to even see some US veterans and Taliban fighting together in Ukraine if this goes on long enough.

More evidence Putin likely sees his position as pot committed. Their intelligence was wrong and a quick regime change isn't in the cards but to back down now means regional hegemony slips away for good. If Russian forces can't succeed in Ukraine, or at least exit with a show of strength on favorable terms, Russian influence in the region falls into question. I worry Russia takes a page from the American playbook and conducts their version of Operation Linebacker II in order to secure better terms and exit with a demonstration of Russian military might. I think that's also a concern shared by the US and NATO hence the rush to bolster Ukraine's air defense systems - in addition to the tactical advantage they'll give Ukraine in the conflict. Counter battery artillery systems and things like the switchblade drones to target artillery will go a long way toward muting Russian capabilities of massed artillery and aerial bombing to pound Ukraine into agreeing to more favorable terms. NATO's goal now is to lessen Russia's tactical capabilities enough that Ukraine doesn't make a major strategic concession in negotiations.

A neo-liberal intellectual's take to balance out Mearsheimer. https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/ Fairly optimistic take but I do think a Russian defeat is going to be followed by a resurgence in democracy in other countries under their influence. We've already seen Kazakhstan distancing itself from Russia, refusing to send troops and actually sending aid to Ukraine in the form of medical supplies. Point 11 is a no brainer, too bad Bayraktar is a private company. Although there's evidence Ukraine is using aerovironment's drones effectively too.

The other alternative is wait 10-15 years and hope whoever replaces Putin isn't as committed to regional power, all the while making every decision with Russian foreign policy in mind. Still a coin flip. 100% agree though that those funds should be put to work now to assist refugees. And maybe incentivize defection among Russian soldiers with a bonus and path to citizenship in the EU.

Political realists like Mearsheimer are a bit like value investors, forgotten until they're relevant again. Mearsheimer is a product of the Cold War where everything is framed in terms of hard power and the competing spheres of influence of two relatively equal great powers. Its an ideology that assumes rational actors and takes all analysis to its final conclusion assuming as a given that the more powerful actor will prevail, often through simply threatening force, i.e the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now that a "great" power is involved in a dispute within their sphere of influence, realists get to be in the spotlight for a bit once again. We're seeing though that either Ukraine said YOLO we will determine our own fate or that they reached a very different conclusion than Mearsheimer with regards to the extent of Russia's power. Perhaps they aren't strictly speaking rational actors and decided to gamble a bit that 2022's Russia has a limited ability to project power beyond their own border. Perhaps their experience fighting them for the last 8 years lead to this conclusion, I don't know. I simply think that the might makes right argument put forth by Mearsheimer and by extension the don't poke the bear argument completely ignores Ukraine's own ability to determine its fate. It also ignores the randomness associated with warfare, what ought to happen doesn't always happen. Wars are incredibly costly and even the most autocratic of regimes have limits to how much cost their populace is willing to tolerate. If Ukraine can continue what they've been doing for the last 3 weeks in making the war incredibly costly for Russia, they'll prevail. There's speculation that post-war the $500B in frozen Russian foreign reserves will be utilized to rebuild Ukraine. And post-war, should it end on favorable terms for Ukraine, the door is wide open for Ukraine to join the west and completely break out of the Russian sphere of influence. A bit of a strategic gamble on Ukraine's part to not be more acquiescing to their regional hegemon but I don't think they share Mearsheimer's certainty that Russia's might will prevail.

Decent twitter thread from someone who has quite a few other very good threads on logistics regarding the challenges Russia will face in Ukraine. Ukraine is huge, and Russia has committed way too few troops to have a hope of success in counterinsurgency. I think the biggest indication that the Russian plan was a quick strike to topple the government and install a new regime is simply the # of troops committed, it's no where near enough for a conventional war against Ukraine's Feb 24th army numbers, much less a prolonged counterinsurgency. Unfortunately it also means Russia is likely to resort to the easiest/safest tactic they know, massed artillery strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Interesting discussion on the last week of fighting in Ukraine. Long and pretty in depth:

His twitter was linked earlier, but the database being built of destroyed, damaged, and abandoned equipment on both sides is very impressive. This is the site, every single vehicle listed has a picture of it to accompany it. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Comparing this to the US invasion of Iraq is absurd, Coalition troops weren't losing dozens of tanks in a week. On the list above, 6 T-90s have been photographed destroyed or abandoned for example, that's the most modern tank Russia possesses, they're not Soviet era junk that's been sitting around for decades and it stands to reason their crews are better trained than the average Russian soldier. Today for instance, why were 4 Tunguska air defense vehicles just abandoned for locals to burn? The scale of Russian losses is what is surprising everyone. Even compared to other Russian operations in say Afghanistan or Chechnya, Russian losses in Ukraine in one week are outpacing months of fighting there. Who knows how things will turn out, there's still a strong likelihood Russia can brute force its way into occupying major Ukranian cities through a combination of non-stop artillery and an almost limitless supply of armor. But that just gets them to where everyone thought they'd be on day one, combating a well armed and funded Ukranian insurgency. The Javelin anti-tank system that's being provided to Ukraine has a listed range of 2,200 meters, with US operators in 2003 using it successfully at almost double that range. Russian forces confined to the roads due to muddy conditions have to secure a 2km wide swath in either direction to protect their resupply lines. Asking Russian conscripts who have no desire to be there and are already abandoning their equipment to perform sweeps against well trained and highly motivated Ukranian Javelin teams is a non-start. Providing that kind of security would require an Iraq War surge type commitment to vastly increase the ratio of Russian to Ukranian troops and the training to perform effective counterinsurgency.

There's some good reading available online on The Tanker War as part of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s. Both sides took a lot of shots at the others shipping with anti-ship missiles. It has been a few years but the takeaway I got was that merchant shipping is far more resilient than one would expect and despite both sides dedicating a lot of resources to counter shipping, neither really succeeded. The other takeaway is that despite having little interest in the outcome, Kissinger famously saying "it's a pity they both can't lose", the US did end up intervening against Iran to protect Kuwaiti shipping. In the IMO highly unlikely scenario where the US/Japan/Australia completely refrain from involving themselves in a conflict, there's a scenario where they could be drawn in much like in the Iran-Iraq war to protect shipping.

Added to BAC and FB.

And GME is too now, a major repositioning into high quality names today.

Anyone else really enjoy last night's episode of Billions? I found myself pausing it numerous times to take a look at the pop-up tables they added to it.

Started a small position in FB and AIV.

Starting a position in PYCO for the second time around.

A bit of a tangent but I remember investing in CLF when it was primarily an iron ore miner, roughly 2014 or so, and having it lumped in with coal companies as it also mined met coal, primarily for its own operations. Every negative headline about coal miners invariably included CLF. The price of iron ore tanking didn't help much either, but man was it tough to see the stock being tossed in with one of the most hated sectors at the time when it didn't really produce any thermal coal, and met coal was a very small portion of its business.

Came across this article and thought of this thread. https://www.eater.com/22618349/pakistani-mangoes-chaunsa-anwar-ratol-buy-usa-whatsapp-shipping-supply-chain A bit of additional info if you're considering ordering mangos this spring/summer. I had a chance to visit Tropical Acres farm (https://www.tropicalacresfarms.com/) a few weeks ago and they're an incredible wealth of mango knowledge, growing over 300 varieties on their property. They claim Alphonso's grow and produce well there due to their proximity to the coast and sandy soil as well as numerous other Indian and Pakistani varieties. They'll ship boxes of mangos to most of the US except California.

MSGE really has some wild volatility for what it is and premiums are surprisingly good. I've sold covered calls against my position opportunistically for the last few months and collected quite a bit of premium.

CLF and MSGE