Pelagic

Interesting theory @james22. This piece makes the point that Nordstream 1 & 2 have two actual pipes each. Interesting that one of NS 2's is undamaged. Deliberate sabotage of that magnitude would aim to take out all 4 pipes one would think. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-gas-leak-explosions.html

A bit of color from the Russian side early in the war. It seems most realized very early on that their objectives were impossible and their leaders had no idea what was going on.

The 30% figure was edited by CBS which was the original source of the claim. It has since been heavily disputed by both Ukraine and Western suppliers of aid.

Let's remember Russia committed somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% of their conventional forces to fighting in Ukraine. A NATO lead conventional strike on Russian forces in Ukraine isn't nearly as escalatory as striking targets within Russia yet could still do significant damage to Russia's military. I still think the use of nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, is mostly talk by Russia. Tactical nuclear weapons aren't an instant remedy for Russia's underequipped and undertrained army. They were designed to buy defenders time against tank formations in the hundreds during the Cold War. Ukraine's "armored fist" that broke through to Kupiansk was something like 17 tanks. There's videos all over reddit and twitter of the recent Ukrainian offensive, a dozen vehicles here, another dozen elsewhere - these aren't the large formations that TNWs were designed for. Add to that you get into the strange position of using TNWs to defend territory you just held a sham referendum to label Russia. And it's not like Russia has the real time intelligence to strike Ukrainian force buildups accurately with TNWs either, otherwise the submarine launched Kalibir missiles they launched at power plants two weeks ago would have targeted Ukraine's ongoing offensive instead of a single powerplant. You have to hope someone in the Russian command structure is asking themselves these questions and is also concluding there just isn't a target worth the ramifications of using nuclear weapons. And on Ukraine's side they're likely aware of this too and not massing forces in a way that they present a target that Russian could strike.

This is something I've wondered too. I caught a bit of Gold Rush the other day and they mentioned they'd mined 500 ounces that season. Let's be generous and say they're selling at $1800 per oz. you're telling me the whole operation with all that equipment is only bringing in $900k gross? Probably one of those endeavors where you do it for 10 years you might get one real good year that keeps you coming back and trying to repeat that success.

Agreed regarding increasing complexity in vehicles but modern outboard engines have really made an effort to make changing your own oil and performing basic maintenance quite easy. Once you buy an oil pump for like $40 it's relatively clean too. Have to give credit to the engineers that designed Mercury's line of new outboards in this regard, it's very easy for just about anyone to do their own maintenance. @ERICOPOLY You can check out https://www.boatsetter.com/ or https://www.boataround.com/us they're rental platforms that handle the insurance aspect and take something in the order of 30% commission on the listing. I know a few people who have rented through them, although usually they required the guests to hire a captain for the boat. A no frills pontoon boat could definitely make money in the right location.

The real question I think is if Rings of Power is a success does Amazon tackle some of the other stories set in Middle Earth? A series based on the Children of Hurin or The Fall of Gondolin would be awesome but also a lot of potential to piss off die hard fans. Could Middle Earth be the next Marvel Universe or Star Wars and we see shows/movies set in it for years to come?

Let's say the battery fails out of warranty, can the car still operate on the ICE only if you choose to not have it replaced? Have to figure for a lot of drivers the ICE is going to have relatively few miles on it (I guess hours would be a better metric here) if they're mainly using the battery to commute to and from work and the ICE for the occasional longer trip.

I think a lot of it comes down to Zillow infringing on their turf. Choosing good comps and providing an accurate valuation is one of the major value adds of a good realtor. And realtors are going to present their value estimate in the form of a range and usually provide a link to the comparable properties so you can kind of get a feel for how they arrived at their range. Zillow just puts up their Zestimate (they do present a range but you have to click through to see it) without much info on how it was derived. But Zestimates are so ubiquitous that every aspiring first time buyer browsing Zillow all day just accepts them as is.

Fascinating. The same applies for a lot of houses for sale in my neighborhood with a $1 to $3 discrepancy between Zestimate and list price. It seems Zillow won't put a Zestimate higher than list by more than a couple dollars. Presumably their algorithm has it priced lower internally but they're not confident enough in the algorithm to say that. Then there are a handful of houses with Zestimates noticeably lower (20-50k) than list price so presumably the algorithm feels it is right or internally has a Zestimate even lower but is limited by a % deviation from actual list price. Will have to do some more searching but I haven't found a house listed with a Zestimate noticeably higher than listed price. It seems to default to the $1-3 bump. Did just find one $309 higher on an $800k house. On one hand a Zestimate higher than list would make the listing realtor look bad but on the other would likely have buyers flocking to it in droves thinking they're getting a deal. Every realtor I've ever talked to hates how fixated buyers can be over Zestimates.

Just a short opinion piece. He's basically right in that a lot of capital flowed into fracking and not a lot was returned to shareholders. The crux of the argument: Not sure on the unnecessary part though. If not from fracking, where would the shortfall have come from? Would investment in production elsewhere in the world have been more profitable? Would oil prices have remained higher during the 2010s?

I'm honestly surprised there isn't more crowdfunding being done to encourage defection of Russian soldiers. A bonus for defecting coupled with a pathway to citizenship somewhere else seems like an easy way to destabilize the Russian military even more. Early in the war I read a good piece on why Argentina would be the perfect host country if EU countries weren't amenable to the idea. Toss in additional bonuses for sabotaged equipment and things start to stack up even more in Ukraine's favor. Russians are being enticed to sign up for the military for a bonus that equates to something like $4,000 US and then monthly payments of $3-4,000. If western citizens can raise millions for Ukraine to buy a Bayraktar, a few million to encourage defections and destabilize Russian forces seems like a pretty good ROI. Very rough math as a point of comparison, the US spent in the neighborhood of $27 million to kill one insurgent in Afghanistan. Something in the neighborhood of mid 5 figures would likely be plenty to see some meaningful defection, especially since it doesn't seem Russian soldiers are particularly ideologically committed to war with Ukraine.

Hahaha autocorrect has a sense of humor to it sometimes.

Guns, Germans, and Steel is entertaining but not without fairly strong critiques among anthropologists. Personally I enjoyed reading it, even if you don't agree with his central thesis, there's a lot of good historical anecdotes in it (that critics will say are cherry picked) that will keep you interested. If you're interested in the topic, I can't recommend 1491 and 1493 by Charles Mann enough. They're both excellent works and cover some of the same ground as Guns, Germs, and Steel. Also very readable for a layperson but include a good deal more references to other works. A teaser of sorts for 1491 that Mann wrote for The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/03/1491/302445/

Dallas Fed survey of O&G executives. Some interesting responses and then their own additional commentary near the bottom. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2202.aspx#tab-questions This is a particularly interesting comment IMO. The industry has adapted to the shale boom, and is rapidly losing the know-how to drill elsewhere. Look at how "brain drain" has affected Venezuela's production - among other issues to say the least. Anyone who could get out, usually those with relationships with western oil companies, did. Edit: link to additional longer comments. A lot of risk aversion being expressed. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2202.aspx#tab-comments

Interesting note comparing valuations today to recent commodity lows in 09 and 15/16.

Regulated thermostat control would just incentivize things like space heaters, no? There's certainly an added risk (fire/CO) to alternative heating/cooling systems but they're also a lot less efficient than larger centralized units. Seems like a plan fraught with negative unintended consequences for very little real benefit. Comfort during temperature extremes isn't something people are willing to compromise on.

An interesting thread on the difficulties surrounding building NG takeaway capacity. Another example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/02/01/why-is-new-england-paying-the-equivalent-of-180-oil-for-natural-gas/?sh=10f5d3a230a7

The math definitely works out, especially for a lot of the contestants. What I don't understand about Alone is how frequently a number of contestants drop in the first week or so. Ostensibly these are hardened survivalists who know what they're getting into but then all of a sudden remember that they have a family they miss. The other issue is some of the contrived restrictions placed on contestants, like abiding by very strict fishing regulations. It's supposed to be a survival scenario, and they haven't had a real meal in over a week, but oh this 10lb fish is out of season so I have to release it. That said the scene in I believe season 6 where one of the characters manages to take down a musk ox was incredible, a truly raw moment where he put a lot on the line to succeed.

Little background thread on the commentator in the video. I'm actually surprised there's that much difference of opinion tolerated on Russian TV, although there's also the argument he's setting the stage for easing tensions.

The CoBF theta gang has discovered MSGE I see. It really has been the gift that keeps on giving for option premium. Bought back my May $85s yesterday that I sold for a little over $3 each.

An interesting interview with a captured Russian airborne soldier. Taking him at face value, it's amazing how little preparation they received for the invasion. No briefing or battle plan or anything really, just board helicopters and fly into Ukraine.

It does seem like the EU is conceding that an oil embargo is feasible and on the table. Won't expect the same for a NG embargo unless Russia does something to escalate beyond what they've already done and I hesitate to think what the EU has as its red line for NG imports. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/world/europe/european-union-oil-embargo-russia-ukraine.html

All things in good time.

It would appear Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Russia is claiming an ammunition storage issue aboard. Either scenario represents an almost unfathomable degree of ineptitude on the part of the Russian Navy.