rkbabang

I don't know what the top will be this cycle, $150K - $500K would be my guess, but that's a big range. I don't plan to trim BTC. I do plan to trim MSTR when I think we are at or close to the top. Maybe sell half which will be many times my cost basis by then. My current plan is to hold an accumulate Bitcoin through the next 3-4 cycles at least. 16 years from now I'll be in my late 60s and will hopefully not even need my bitcoin, but it will be there if I need it.

^^^

Probably a bad analogy given that there's a whole generation of people now that can't even read a clock which has hands.

I still hold some from back in 2015 when I was playing with it and found it interesting. I sold about half of it in 2021 (along with some Bitcoin, to pay off 2 mortgages I had, then sold about half of what was left earlier this year to buy more Bitcoin. What I have left is still significant, but I've come to agree with @wachtwoord about it. It may have some value, it may be useful for something, but it isn't a store of value, it isn't money, it isn't secure, limited, decentralized, or immutable (and now even less so that it is proof of stake). I regret not selling all of it in 2021 so that I wouldn't have to have sold any Bitcoin at all. Also I regret not selling all what I had left earlier this year to convert it to Bitcoin. My dumb thinking was that I didn't want to have all of those capital gains in one year, so I'll probably sell it in 2025. That said, I bought my ETH at $8, sold half in 2021 for $4050. A gain of 506X. That's the best trade I've ever made.

I wouldn’t expect Bitcoin to do quite as well in the next 15 years as it did in the last 15. Bitcoin was basically worthless 15 years ago in 2009. It traded in 2010, but never hit $1. Bitcoin first hit $1 in early 2011, so it’s up 90,000X in a little less than 14 years. I wouldn’t expect it to go up 90,000X from here in the next 15 years. Maybe 25X-1000X if I had to give an 80% confident range.

They are very unlikely, but not impossible. Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, is open source, and is now worth $1.7T Anyone can examine the code and try to find a bug. That is a huge pot for a potential hacker just sitting there for the taking. Yet no one has hacked it yet by finding some critical flaw. That is a good indication that it is unlikely to happen.

And since you said risks in the next 5-10 years: I'll add: Even though Bitcoin maxis are eventually correct, you buy at a cycle high and it takes years before you return to break even. Think of people who bought at almost $20K seeing it go down to $4K or people who bought at $60k watching it fall to $15K. There are definitely short term risks in an asset this volatile.

Some reasons: There is a flaw in the encryption that no one has noticed yet and a hacker discovers this and starts spending Bitcoin that aren't his. Panic ensues and Bitcoin goes to $0 pretty quickly. Quantum computing happens before the Bitcoin code upgrades to use fully quantum resistant encryption. Panic ensues... see above. Another type of crypto currency is so much better than Bitcoin somehow in some way that Bitcoin can not be forked to adopt the new features that everyone just switches to that instead. We are wrong and no one wants a hard asset which can't be inflated away. People really do prefer government money. Long term, there isn't much use for the most secure network ever created.

Yes, if anything this cycle seems a little more bullish. We had it re-touch its all time high before the halving earlier in the year. And it is seems to be rallying a little early right now.

I expect it will be decades off, not just years. If I had to guess 30-60 years. You are not going to replace the measure of value in society over night. We are so early that we are still at the stage where people are measuring the value of BTC in their local currencies rather than the other way around. When people start saying that the USD is worth X sats and the CAD is worth Y sats and the Pound is worth Z sats, you will know that we are over the hump. It will be a roller-coaster ride in the interim, but the general direction over any long window of time (say any 4 year window) will be up. Which is exactly what has happened so far. I say 4 years, because the halving cycle gives it this built in 4 year cycle where the inflows from newly mined coins gets cut in half.

Valuing it is extremely difficult. It's like someone telling you in 2004 that you could invest privately in Facebook and it might have 3 billion active users someday and make a lot of money from monetizing its users. 1) Would you even believe that? 2) How could you value it? How could you know exactly what a user would be worth to FB in 20 years? But you would know that the company would likely be worth a lot if that were to happen.

Also 3 books I'd recommend highly. 1) "The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking", by Saifedean Ammous 2) "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better" by Lyn Alden 3) "Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin" by Jason Lowery The first 2 are similar, but make different arguments and go over the history slightly differently. I found I derived a lot value from reading both of them. But certainly read at least one of them. Softwar is a little far out there and I'm still not sold on it and not completely sure what to think of it, but he goes over non-monetary uses for the Bitcoin blockchain claiming the cryptocurrency/hard asset way is just one way of looking at it and not even the most important way. He says Bitcoin is better referred to as Bitpower and gives a Second Amendment argument for the right of Americans to own, or should I say keep and bear, bitcoin. I found it interesting that money isn't the only application for the hardest asset and the most secure network ever conceived by humanity. Bitcoin, its blockchain, and its network aren't just money or just an asset or just a way of waging war, it is something completely new and different. A completely new technology that is in a category of its own.

Good interview with Tad Smith. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z3bxzu_5E8&ab_channel=TimKotzman Here's a good short clip from it:

Hmm. Lets go over this. In blue is what you said and then me agreeing with your statement. In green part staring with the key words "I think" is my telling you why I agree with your statement. I never said you agreed with the green part starting with "I think..." Your reading comprehension skills appear to be severely lacking. YES! You are 100% correct. I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered. There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state." Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.

YES! You are 100% correct. I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered. There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state." Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.