Jurgis
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Posts posted by Jurgis
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Once this pandemic is over I think every city in the US will be accelerating their digitization plans.
On what budget?
Once this pandemic is over I wonder how much money any city/state in the US will have to do anything new and non-essential.
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I’m surprised people are trying to time the market.
...
I am waiting to buy more of my core positions and maybe some “lotto tickets” if we test the previous lows or go lower. If Dow goes 50% lower than today I’ll even use leverage.
::)
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I can't help but think of all the posts deriding the folks worried about climate change as hypocrites. Go get infected with the disease and get immunity yourself if it's such a great idea. Report back with progress and I may consider doing the same in a few weeks.
Def this.
Boris Johnson did this.
Following his lead is the highest honor.
We will appreciate your sacrifice. KK THX OK.
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26-min interview with Bill Gates:
Liberty, i am not sure where you find all of these sources :-) Please keep them coming...
If anyone wants to understand exactly where the US is at today, and what it will take to re-open, watch this interview.
- re-opening: perhaps early June, in limited way
- key enabler to reopening: nationally coordinated testing capability able to prioritize tests so high priority people get results back within 24 hours and contract tracing can happen immediately.
- Today testing results are not coordinated or prioritized at a national level; sounds like a helter skelter approach (he also inferred if you pay $ you can get a very quick result and be tested every day if you want).
- Gates was pretty emphatic that what is done with testing in the next 7 weeks will determine how comprehensive and successful the re-opening phase will be.
- very confident a treatment will be found in the next couple of months, which will help.
- vaccine is likely 18 months away (perhaps a little sooner if all goes well).
My guesses about reopening, etc.:
- Reopening will be patchwork as were closures
- There will be no fast national prioritized testing or contact tracing
- It's gonna be muddle through with flare-ups and drops and a lot of continued acrimony across the country. In the best case flare-ups will not be huge and will be followed with local lockdowns immediately.
- If there's treatment in next couple months, then we win. GAME OVER.
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After the high risk group have been identified, please also add a bailout package for them until vaccine has been found. Easy peasy, recession solved.
No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway.
A lot of problems solved.
The risk group is probably 1/3 of the population depending on how it is defined.
Maybe we should exclude guests at Mar-a-Lago then. ::)
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After the high risk group have been identified, please also add a bailout package for them until vaccine has been found. Easy peasy, recession solved.
No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway.
A lot of problems solved.
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Galileo's investments in Gamestop
Yeah, the Gamestop that refused to close stores in states with shelter-in-place arguing that it's an "essential" business... until evil government agents closed the stores.
Maybe it was Galileo's idea... ::)
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He's 89 years old
LOL I can see him in isolation at home, unable to get his FaceTime to work. Or maybe his router needs to be reset, and nobody there to help him.
Big Co CEO: "Why is Buffett not answering our offer? Should we raise pref rate from 9 to 10%? Should we add warrants? He said he'll answer in 10 minutes and it's been an hour already..."
<meanwhile>
Buffett: "Why is my computer not working? I need to answer that Big Co CEO and get my elephant! I think I need to do something to restart this computer! Maybe Bill knows! Where is my iPhone? Can anyone find my iPhone? Oh, nobody's here, I'm in self isolation... Where is my iPhone? Maybe Tim knows where it is."
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It could be a other wrinkle they this crisis leads to a further destruction of the middle class. Let’s say you have a couple earning 200k/ year in 2019, you get zero Covid-19 check. 200k is a lot in some parts of the country but not they much in others. If now both lose their jobs, they could be worse off than a low income family actually.
Yea. But shouldn't those people have some dough to tide them over though this?
Plus calling 200k a year households middle class is quite a stretch. No matter the location. Isn't NYC median household income something like 60k?
Yeah, 200k household middle class? LOL.
It's actually in top 9%: https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-household-income-percentiles/
I find it quite funny - and sad - when most of my techie colleagues behave as if they are middle class and not somewhere in the 80-90%+.
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wabuffo is a veritable source of information. 8)
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I thought that product shortages will be short. But it looks like that at least some local stores are having fewer products 2 weeks plus after lockdown than they had after initial buying shock. I wonder why?
I am not talking toilet paper that is being hoarded, but I'm talking things that I doubt people hoard: yogurts, sour cream, vegetables. Or things like tooth paste, juice, tea, etc.
These are essential businesses and products. And companies should be minting money since people are buying everything without looking at the price. So both manufacturers (Kraft/etc.), logistics/distribution, and grocery store itself should be minting money. So why not stock? Not enough employees? There's thousands who lost jobs, they can be temp hired.
Is it because companies think this is short term and don't want to ramp up production? Is it because they don't want to raise prices, so they are not making more profits? But that's not true, since they sell out on even overpriced products nobody bought before.
Or is it still supply/delivery shock?
Thoughts?
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#OnlyInLithuania: Black marketers are selling pregnancy tests as COVID-19 tests... :-\
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I am honored to be in his pile.
Can I join this pile? 8)
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A tariff on oil has got to be the dumbest thing one can possibly come up with.
Then it's certain to be enacted.
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No there isn't. But you can ignore a section like "Politics".
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What exactly is bad balance sheet?
Are you looking for great business that's ongoing during pandemic or one that is (mostly) stopped?
Also you'd have to look at valuation.
I'll just scattershoot:
EXPE
IAC
MCO
Liberties
DFS
CVS
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3) Avoid cold temps (MCC/beating of the cilia is optimized when you are at core body temp/you don't breathe in super cold air) (Pubmed ID: 27864314)
OT.
Ahh, so this might be an explanation for a belief that you get cold/flu/pneumonia from being cold (or in the cold). It's just the MCC - and maybe some other parts of immune system? - work worse when a person is cold (is outside in the cold), so they are more likely to get infected?
Thanks for insight.
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We got PapaGino's coupon for online pizza. Somehow I don't think online pizza is very filling.
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There is some case/death growth slowdown across countries due to lockdown/shelter-in-place/social distancing/etc.
Assuming this trend continues, did we see the market bottom at SP500 ~2300?
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6. People remain quite orderly and polite, despite having to stand in line six feed apart outside in the rain to wait their turn to enter Trader Joes
I've heard about outside lines at Trader Joe's. IMO this is just insane. More exposure waiting ages in line than in the store.
Anyway, not gonna go to TJs until the lines are gone.
In Soviet Union line stands you!
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1. Yearly travel spend gonna be down $XK - two or three international trips cancelled.
2. Best Buy stopped appliance installations at home. They deliver to the door, after that it's your problem. We got a dryer installed last day of full installations - pure luck. Appliance breaks - tough luck try to find someone who will fix it...
3. Not very essential services are spotty. Pest control - unreachable.
4. Groceries - we got what we needed in a store. I can't Instacart for groceries for the life of me. Toilet paper is the only elusive staple so far.
5. Local meadow/forest/dog walking place was swamped on Saturday. Cars parked half mile+ before the parking lot illegally on highway side. We got there late afternoon, so we got parking. Lots of people walking/etc.
6. I think I mentioned we waited for 2 hours for Chinese delivery on Sunday week ago. Presumably lots of restaurants closed, so this one was swamped and only had one delivery guy.
7. Some local restaurants do pickup/delivery but with half or quarter menu. I understand why, but it sucks - we pretty much could not order anything.
8. Some online services are borked. The restaurant may be closed, but they don't say it and just silently fail. Double check before ordering or getting mad that the website does not work.
9. RCN called and offered 2x speed for 1/2 price for 2 years. The guy did not say that this is uncancellable contract (early termination is like $600), but still... pretty nifty deal IMO. Unless I missed something else and they borked me.
10. Had door-to-door free energy assessment sales a week or so ago. I think MA put a freeze on that for now though.
11. Non-essential products from China are still being delivered and pretty fast. Bought custom shades, got in a week+. Go Amazon, go China! ;)
12. I mentioned buying home sewn masks on Etsy on other thread.
13. Bunch of activities I am involved in moved to virtual on Zoom. Tai Chi, Zen, etc. Even non-technical people are all Zooming.
14. MIT CSAIL mailing list is pretty active on community stuff like making masks for people/healthcare workers, making ventilators (I'm not sure how realistic this is), some Covid 19 related software projects.
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I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.
Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.
LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.
Not.
The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.
lower tax coast? What is that? CA? ::)
Also, data?
My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k.
So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.
I was not talking about RE taxes. If you talk SALT, you are talking all the state taxes.
Yeah, CA RE appreciation has been higher than (most) right coast.
But not because of SALT.
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Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up.
The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first.
You can get plenty of cloth masks (best with insert pockets) on Etsy (even if you don't buy from #Lithuania).
We also ordered 30 count of disposables from Amazon (boo hiss we evil). I'll let people know if/when they arrive.
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I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.
Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.
LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago.
Not.
The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.
lower tax coast? What is that? CA? ::)
Also, data?
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
OT. I just love the price history of this book:
https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/0316343692?context=search
(mark 3rd Party New and 3rd Party Used for additional fun).