Jurgis
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Posts posted by Jurgis
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Because Jared Kushner did such a great job so far, he's now being given new responsibilities for the vaccine development (oh, and Peter Navarro too):
President Donald Trump, who has said he believes a COVID-19 vaccine will be available by the end of the year, is turning to his son-in-law to help streamline the effort, branded, “Operation Warp Speed.” Kushner is working alongside White House senior adviser Peter Navarro, who pitched the operation via memo to the president’s coronavirus task force as early as this February.Can you imagine if Obama or W. Bush gave this job, during a pandemic with 70k deaths so far, to his cousin or brother-in-law or whatever?
Deep state is to blame. It's a witch hunt - nobody wants to work for El Presidente. Only some true patriots like Jared-boy are sacrificing their lives and working 24 hour days covering the holes left by the evil apparatchiks who are gleefully pushing for Trump's downfall! Shame on deep state! Go Jared-o! Make vaccine great again!
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You see Workday and Ceridian and a few other Human Resources IT systems taking share from incumbents, such as Paychex and ADP. When you read some of the stories comparing the functionality of payroll processing for these various services it becomes immediately obvious why the change is happening. For ADP/Paychex, payroll processing was a pretty manual, time-intensive process that was incapable of providing real-time visibility into the payroll period. By comparison, and I might be falling for the marketing bluster of Workday/Ceridian, as a payroll specialist at any company, you can run a report at any time to understand where payroll is trending, who is maybe abusing overtime, etc. From what I understand, this was simply impossible in the old system. With that said, we used Ceridian last year, and they fucked up big time once, which led us to switching to Paycom. Ceridian double-paid every employee in the company once. For most companies paying payroll is their largest expense so you can imagine the huge red flags this created within the company. With that said, the rollout of Paycom was not very smooth. They struggled to get the log-in terminals at each site working on time (which taxes plant mgmt., IT, HR, etc.) and I personally got pissed when the 401K integration between Paycom and our 401k provider was not working, so none of my 401K contributions were showing up in my account for 2 months. That snafoo could be a huge liability for a company because as a fiduciary of the plan they are responsible for depositing those funds in a timely manner, or else my company is on the hook for any gains in the investments I had requested in my 401k plan.
Partially OT: It seems that W2s from Ceridian cannot be autoimported to TurboTax unlike the ones from ADP. Not that businesses care about what their employees have to do during tax time. ::)
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For years, the Federal Reserve warned that too many highly risky companies were engaging in fuzzy accounting that bumped up their earnings -- making it easier for them to obtain loans. The practice was driving up corporate debt to excessive and worrisome levels, regulators chastised.
But now, in its latest effort to keep credit flowing, the Fed has done a remarkable about-face.
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The Fed’s historic action, lending directly for the first time since Word War II, came after Congress set aside capital to to support lending to smaller businesses. The first announcement, on March 23, allowed companies with high-yield bonds or leveraged loans to participate as well. In weighing their credit strength, the Fed said that it would consider their Ebitda. But the market was left confused by whether that meant adjusted or standard Ebitda.
The latest statement on April 30 clarified what the Fed meant: Adjusted would be accepted.
I'm putting this thing up here again. Only this time it has scotch in it.
You definitely should start selling these things.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257741326650470400?s=20
Well run States should not be bailing out poorly run States, using CoronaVirus as the excuse! The elimination of Sanctuary Cities, Payroll Taxes, and perhaps Capital Gains Taxes, must be put on the table. Also lawsuit indemnification & business deductions for restaurants & ent.How to politicize a pandemic and basically blackmail people in doing your pet wishes while witholding the help that they need and deserve by being, y'know, part of the country.
What he calls bailouts are actually just being a single country.
When New Orleans or Mississippi or Florida gets hit by a huge hurricane and they get help, are they getting "bailed out" by the other states or is helping the worst hit places just the function of a government?
The most urban states are worse hit first by pandemics, that's biology, but he's claiming this is some kind of political thing to punish enemies. How sociopathic do you have to be as people are suffering and dying? Don't the urban coastal states pay a lot more to the federal government than many of the poorer states that aren't too badly hit yet? So they are supposed to pay more and get less in return? When he bailed out farmers when his tarrifs hurt them, that was fine because it was political allies, right?
Is he trying to break up the United States?
Hey, we are really glad Kim Jong Un is alive and well!
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It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer.
I don't think SK or NZ will have 6-10 months of lockdown. They might bounce back and forth between tighter and looser measures, but places that did this well (lockdown to crush the initial curve + masks + massive testing + contact tracing) are in much better shape.
Sure. I was talking mostly US and somewhat Europe.
Places that have close to zero cases + test/trace/etc probably will do fine without lock downs. And definitely will do better without lock downs than places that still have tons of cases and don't test/trace.
Yeah, meanwhile in the US..
"Your honor, my client was exercising her 2nd amendment rights to kill the virus that was sitting on the guard's head".
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The problem is as follows: if mall/whatever reopened, I would go there if I knew I'd be the only person in the mall. But then store(s) don't get enough business. OTOH, if everyone rushes in, then I wouldn't go there. So likely you can't get many people there.
It's also possible that there will be a bad feedback loop: people don't go to malls, cases don't rise, people think that it's safe and go to malls, then cases rise again, rinse, repeat?
Restaurants are more complicated than stores. Even if I'm the only customer there, there is a risk of getting infected from the staff. More risk than if I ordered for delivery. So screw going to restaurant.
Most people can’t conceptualize risk from something not visible, so they will conclude that Malls are save, because other people go there, which ironically makes them less safe.
Agreed.
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It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer.
I don't think SK or NZ will have 6-10 months of lockdown. They might bounce back and forth between tighter and looser measures, but places that did this well (lockdown to crush the initial curve + masks + massive testing + contact tracing) are in much better shape.
Sure. I was talking mostly US and somewhat Europe.
Places that have close to zero cases + test/trace/etc probably will do fine without lock downs. And definitely will do better without lock downs than places that still have tons of cases and don't test/trace.
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I am mostly for lockdowns, but this:
“But people are saying, ‘We’ve already had six to seven weeks of this (restriction on activity), what’s another week or two?’”is wishful thinking.
It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer.
So maybe reopen. It will likely cause flare ups and deaths, but at least there won't be "govt is killing us by lock-down" complaints.
Could not agree more. But I am sure they will find another way to blame government.
Yeah, that is certain.
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I am mostly for lockdowns, but this:
“But people are saying, ‘We’ve already had six to seven weeks of this (restriction on activity), what’s another week or two?’”is wishful thinking.
It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer.
So maybe reopen. It will likely cause flare ups and deaths, but at least there won't be "govt is killing us by lock-down" complaints.
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This is crazy. Who is going to go on a cruise this August?
https://news.yahoo.com/carnival-announces-comeback-cruises-resume-154302608.html
Same people who go anywhere regardless of crowds as soon as the lock-down ends.
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The problem is as follows: if mall/whatever reopened, I would go there if I knew I'd be the only person in the mall. But then store(s) don't get enough business. OTOH, if everyone rushes in, then I wouldn't go there. So likely you can't get many people there.
It's also possible that there will be a bad feedback loop: people don't go to malls, cases don't rise, people think that it's safe and go to malls, then cases rise again, rinse, repeat?
Restaurants are more complicated than stores. Even if I'm the only customer there, there is a risk of getting infected from the staff. More risk than if I ordered for delivery. So screw going to restaurant.
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Can somebody post a picture of a Donald Trump cheque. I'm dying of curiosity.
Here it is.
Thanks.
I'm LMAO at the cheque. There's probably a regulation somewhere of what can go on cheques. The only place the could put his name in is in the description. Likely because the president doesn't have signing authority at the treasury. BUT Vona Robinson does. So she gets to sign the cheques, not Trump. Ooooohh he must have been pissed about that.
I heard Trump fired Mnuchin because his name on the checks is too small and not in golden letters.
And he fired of who-the-heck-she-is Vona Robinson too.
(Not real news)
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Finally, the “invisible enemy” (Trademark pending) hits close to home. Our HR gal called me about my contact exposure with one of my close colleagues last week. His wife tested positive and he is likely too (test results pending). Luckily my own exposure with him was pretty limited because I kept at social distancing at work too and have my own office. His cubicle neighbor next to him likely is not that lucky.
My colleagues wife most likely got it through an outbreak cluster at her workplace according to my colleague (I texted him).
Both are doing fine so far, his wife only symptom is losing her sense of smell.
Are you being quarantined? Or tested? Or made to work from home? Or was it just a social call of "you might be screwed, but please continue comrade"?
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I was at the mailbox today & a neighbor was passing by.
He stopped & asked me if I'd gotten a stimulus check yet & I waved the envelope at him.
He started pissing & moaning about how Pelosi is holding up the checks.
I said yes, it's a disgrace that she's held up the checks just so she could get Trumps name on them.
He started to bristle & I asked him if he'd knew that Pelosi & Trump were having an affair & that she had to be mean to him in public for the sake of the democratic party but that her work getting his name on the checks proves that she really loves him.
I think I had him believing it by the end of the conversation.
We rarely talk because he's pretty much a dipshit.
Hopefully we won't talk again any time soon.
I almost fell of the chair laughing.
I'm not sure if I should sue your neigbor, Trump, or Pelosi.
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All coronavirus discussion should be conducted in another socially isolated location.
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At least they don't have skyscrapers in Russia. :-\
Ahem, maybe not sky scraping hospitals.
But...
Whoosh....
They had skyscrapers there since 1950s. I studied in one of them ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_building_of_Moscow_State_University )
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Meanwhile, in Russia:
A third Russian doctor has plunged from a hospital window after complaining about medics facing intolerable coronavirus pressures.Alexander Shulepov, 37, is fighting for his life with head injuries after taking part in in a video which claimed he was ordered to work despite testing positive for Covid-19.
He and colleagues also warned about PPE shortages in Voronezh city. Later - lying in a coronavirus hospital bed - Shulepov made a second video to retract the claims amid suspicions he was pressured to do so.
On Saturday, while being treated at Novousmanskaya district hospital, the experienced ambulance doctor plunged from a second floor window sustaining skull fractures. He is now in a grave condition.
Two senior women doctors in Russia have died recently after falling from hospital windows amid reports they had challenged their superiors over a lack of PPE for coronavirus patients.
At least they don't have skyscrapers in Russia. :-\
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Wizard.
Wizard with the sheets mainly.
But also wizard under the sheets.
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If you buy any international stocks, you can always say that you are in global trade or import/export. 8)
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At first I cheekily said I was jobless but that often got awkward. Now I usually say “I work from home” and keep it as vague as possible. I hate telling random people I invest / trade. People either think you are a reckless gambler and start ranting about capitalism or ask questions about cryptocurrency and Tesla (the latter is by far the most annoying). Also, in my opinion small talk about jobs is usually extremely boring and I’d rather talk about something else.
I agree with this, but...
I'm not OP, but it seems that OP is asking what to tell to the closer circle of friends/family/relatives/etc. to whom "I work from home" is not enough. Or who know that you worked as XYZ (engineer/doctor/lawyer/whatever) before and that it does not "work" to do XYZ from home. Or they might ask "for which company you work from home". Going the lying path of "I contract" is not great either.
I agree with sentiments above thread that telling people that you are "private investor" is wrought with issues. So is unfortunately "boutique investment manager" IMO. I don't have a good solution unfortunately.
Not a direct issue for me, but interesting thread, since I don't tell most my friends/family that I invest either.
Edit: I have a great idea for a business. Open a company that employs such private investors for nominal salary which they themselves pay into the company. And then they can honestly tell everyone that they work for BIM Inc. which is in stealth mode, so hush hush. 8)
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Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced.
After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”
Yeah, I was thinking "thank USA for the car culture". Makes going places during lockdown possible and tolerable.
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In terms of what I am not doing for a long time: flying somewhere. Apart from being locked in a plane with hundreds of other people, I don't think I can handle having mask on for 4-6-10 hours. Plus the airplane air makes me sneeze profusely every time I fly. So I'd be considered bio terrorist half through the flight. ::) :'(
#FirstWorldFlyingProblems
Jurgis is not The Terminator and actually has weaknesses. Quick, put him in that vat of molten metal. Actually, I mean put him on a plane.
I'll be back* 8)
* if I'm allowed onto the return flight
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Fair enough. Might just be then. I find airports to be places of misery at the best of times.
I completely agree with that sentiment.
Unfortunately have to travel transatlantic to visit family. Fingers crossed I won't need to do that until maybe some of the restrictions/changes/etc go back to (mostly) normal.
#ThoseNetJets!
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@thepupil - what do you think about OXY debt? I bought some close to the bottom, but not sure if it's worth holding as it has bounced to $80s. Still ~9% yield, but clearly not as attractive.
I also hold some GPOR debt, so there goes my any credibility in energy debt investing.
my goals with energy are
a) own more than 0% in it
b) position myself in securities that I don't think will be massively diluted or PRIMED. I think any OXY debt instrument has the potential to be primed by Berkshire or anyone else
...
Fair enough.
When Tailwinds Vanish: The Internet in the 2020s (John Luttig)
in General Discussion
Posted
I disagree that Oracle did not have competition. They did. So did Microsoft.
Why were they still profitable? Perhaps because before the Internet bubble nobody financed profitless growth much or for long. 20+ years ago it would have been difficult to sell huge potential TAMs to investors. Some companies could but it was likely more difficult and rare than it is now. (I am not saying that selling huge TAMs and profitless growth is bubble or irrational on the investor side, I'm just saying that the attitude towards this has changed a lot.)