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Jurgis

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    Real World Anecdotes

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    We went for a lakeside walk today. Pretty busy. Less than half people with masks. Much more masks in the grocery shops (which makes sense).

     

    Ordered Thai for delivery. A bunch of restaurants that were open for delivery now closed. OTOH, I think some that were closed before now open. Still pretty large selection.

     

    Got the single-use masks that we ordered from Chinese 3rd party seller on Amazon.

    Got hand sanitizer from Amazon. Not Chinese, US based, but expensive.

    Ordered toilet paper from Walmart.com. Haven't received yet.

    Our local Stop & Shop grocery shop still pretty empty shelves. Market Basket is a better.

     

    Lithuania is mostly reopening, which I think is a mistake since they have had couple flare ups. They require masks in public, but almost all shops are supposed to open. Small social events for people not in risk groups are going to be allowed too. We'll see how that works out.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly.

     

    You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already.

     

    Just in case it needs to be said: Do not put household disinfectants into your body  ;D

     

    Don't listen to LC. He's a liberal who's trying to confuse you with facts. Listen only to Herr Presidente. Make America Bleached Again!

    When Tailwinds Vanish: The Internet in the 2020s (John Luttig)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    For what its worth, I found this work to be highly opinionated without much in the way of actual data to support their perspective.

     

    My personal experience having worked in finance in a mid-large city and now manufacturing in a more rural area is that many, many work processes continue to need to be improved/automated from the status quo, and the wave of adoption is adoption is a long, slow process.

     

    I believe the author states that TAMs are wildly overstated, and I would agree that the founders' need to paint a pie-in-the-sky growth outlook to get VC dollars results in these wild TAM estimates.

     

    To be clear, I'm not arguing tech SAAS companies are under- or even fairly valued, but simply that this author did not provide interesting or compelling evidence that there is some kind of competitive environment phase change happening that would cause SAAS companies to grow more slowly.

     

    If the argument is that coronavirus somehow causes tech to be hurt anymore than any other industry, I could argue the exact opposite; namely, that the distance created by coronavirus and remote working validates the prior investments in software and cloud-based apps, and moving away from on-premise, paper-based work processes. Almost every half-decent software business probably accelerates its growth medium-term and pulls forward adoption because of this pandemic.

     

    My opinion about the article is similar to yours.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    At last... another potential cure!

     

    After a Homeland Security official mentioned the ability of disinfectants like bleach to kill the coronavirus on surfaces, Trump remarked on the effectiveness.

     

    “And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?” Trump said during his daily press briefing at the White House. “Because you see it gets on the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it’d be interesting to check that. So that you’re going to have to use medical doctors, but it sounds — it sounds interesting to me.”

     

    Yes, I see it now: intravenous bleach infusion, bombardment with UV rays, gamma rays, etc etc and patients will be straight up cured!

     

    Perhaps Donnie could personally demonstrate how this works for all of us.

     

    I've heard bleach infusion and gamma radiation makes the orange skin color even more beautiful.

     

    It would be a win win demonstration!

     

    I'm fine if he volunteers Mikey for it too.

    Energy Sector

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Trudeau and pretty much the rest of Canada (outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan) has moved on from oil. Oil is so hated my guess is completing the pipeline projects will be difficult; more massive protests with many groups doing everything they can to stop it. Meanwhile, the economy is falling off a cliff. But the government is cutting everyone a check so who cares about being ‘unemployed’ or if we have a shitty economy.

     

    Agreed, times have changed, but they have also made a national energy policy more of a necessity than it has ever been.

    Lack of money, has a wonderful way of concentrating the minds of everyone,

     

    Like it or not, there will be climate driven constraints, but it can be done intelligently (ie: orphan well clean-up)

     

    The Supreme Court has ruled there is 'duty to consult', not a 'duty to agree'. A sick community cannot veto a pipeline, because it cannot make a decision. The obvious industry 'consultors', are the governments of the day, under a national energy policy.

     

    There will be quasi-privatization. Crown corporation in-ground SPR, pipeline company, oil company, rail (oil/grain car) fleet, tanker (nfld) fleet, supply-chain (medical, food) infrastructure, etc. Most likely as oiligarch, crown corp and 1-2 private corps.

     

    And perhaps one of the biggest lessons from Covid-19.

    All of the above are essential services, with immense value-add, and robust . When the sh1te hits the fan, the gig economy, and non-essential services break down.

     

    Interesting times.

     

    SD

     

    What this says to me is that if you have pipe already, it will become increasingly valuable.  The repercussions for future supply are interesting to say the least. 

     

    SA, And to a lessor degree the other large Mideast countries are going to be facing revolution if the oil price stays down for very long.  We saw what happened to Libya’s and Venezuela’s supplies when governments become unstable.  Simultaneously we have a virtual elimination of long tail projects by every major player in the world. 

     

    The outcome is likely toppled regimes, and a massive price bounce back, down the road.  It may become more like railroads, with very few players making a lot of money. 

     

    We could speed up the rebalance really quick by turning the gulf fields into glass.  China may take exception but I sure Moscow would be on board.

     

    Are you saying to Nuke the oil fields in the middle east?

     

    Don't give this idea to Orangina in Oval Office.

    Interview with Marc Andreessen

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Ben Thompson wrote this on the essay:

     

    I do believe that It’s Time to Build stands alone: the point is not the details, or the author, but the sentiment. The changes that are necessary in America must go beyond one venture capitalist, or even the entire tech industry. The idea that too much regulation has made tech the only place where innovation is possible is one that must be grappled with, and fixed.

     

    It is really sad that the conclusion drawn from "It’s Time to Build" essay is "too much regulation".  ::)

     

     

    Interview with Marc Andreessen

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    New essay by Marc Andreessen, "It's Time to Build":

     

    https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/

     

    It's very idealistic essay. That's not necessarily bad since it's supposed to be call to arms.

     

    So perhaps I should not comment further.

     

     

     

    What he asks people to do is not easy. Some what he asks is not rational. And some is not even possible.

     

    We are not doing what he asks us to do. Why? Let's take a look at concrete examples.

     

    Affordable housing: not economic, NIMBY, lots of entrenched interests. I don't know a capitalist solution to affordable housing. And government solution(s) may not work well. (I guess capitalist solution is that people with low incomes should live in South Dakota and not in San Francisco... It does not resolve the issues though.)

     

    Superfast transportation:

    - Supersonic jets. Technical issues, affordability, no ( ? ) business case. This is one of the areas where you have only an irrational agent (Elon Musk) trying to do something.

    - High speed trains. This is clearly possible (see Japan, China). Mostly affordability and business case. Plus NIMBY and cost of eminent domain (battles). I could say it's a failure of capitalism, but overall it's somewhat rational for private companies not to get into this area. It's a mess with likely huge cost overruns even if project gets started. And not much profits if any. Plane tickets are cheap and competing with (budget) airlines is hard.

     

    Education:

    - I think this is an area where we don't know what good solutions are. Bill Gates tried and found this is really hard area.

    - Cheap education for everyone seems only possible from the government pocket. Clearly (semi) capitalist universities have not provided this and won't do it in the future either.

    - One qualified tutor per one pupil is impossible both on cost and availability basis.

     

    Healthcare:

    - Vaccines and drugs are hard. This one is somewhat being handled by capitalist means. But you cannot just remove testing/approval/etc costs and time consumption. We can see what happens when untested or badly tested drugs are rushed to the market. We can see what happens when disease test kits are rushed out without quality assurance. You cannot easily have both speed and quality. You probably cannot have speed, quality and cheap prices period. Unless there's some kind of automated AI-driven factory that manufactures everything to spec. But then automated AI-driven factories that manufacture everything would resolve all problems.

     

    Manufacturing:

    - I may know little about this (and I have a nagging suspicion so does Marc Andreessen). IMO, automation is one thing that is spreading through manufacturing mostly "just fine". Maybe not at Elon Musk speeds, but this is likely closer to "we are doing it" than other areas.

     

    Energy:

    - Nuclear reactors. Technical issues, regulatory issues, safety concerns, NIMBY, possibly not economic. It's likely not happening.

    - OTOH, solar and wind and possibly energy storage might be happening just fine. So maybe again closer to "we are doing it" than he admits.

     

    So skipping the areas where "we are doing it", are there solutions for areas where "we are not doing it"?

     

    Affordable housing: I don't have solutions

     

    Superfast transportation:

    - Supersonic jets. Elon Musk is a possible solution.

    - High speed trains. Government driven solutions perhaps.

     

    Education:

    - I don't have solutions.

     

    Healthcare:

    - I don't have solutions.

     

    I'm sure that various people will keep trying all these areas and more. It's not gonna magically resolve anytime soon. But there might be progress. And probably that's the best we can expect.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Mass confusion, zero coordination!

     

    Maryland Buys 500,000 Test Kits From South Korea, Drawing Criticism From Trump

     

    Trump was asked during his briefing on Monday about Hogan securing the tests, for which Maryland paid $9 million. The president suggested it was an unwise investment.

     

    "The governor of Maryland could've called [Vice President] Mike Pence, could've saved a lot of money," Trump said.

     

    "If there were an easier way, we certainly would have taken it," Hogan said Tuesday in an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "The president said the governors are on their own and they should focus on getting their own tests, and that's exactly what we did."

     

    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839919655/maryland-gets-500-000-test-kits-from-south-korea-drawing-criticism-from-trump

     

    Mike Pence would have done 500,000 tests himself! Single handedly! For men only, of course.

    Will S&P500 retest the March Lows (comparison April 20 to April 3)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Yeah, I probably shouldn't have left that so vague.

    -I loaded up the truck on FB at around $150. By my estimate, it was trading at 13-14x forward fcf, still has a large runway with very sticky products (maybe next $1t business?).

    -I'm waiting for a fill on OTCM which lists pink sheet and over the counter stocks/information provider. They're trading at my estimate of roughly 15x fcf, large addressable market, and growing like a weed.

    -Bery shouldn't get too dinged by this debacle, pretty secure end-users and nice history of rolling up the space, trading at a big yield and IMO better quality than a lot of businesses out there.

    -Fonar is a MRI company that both manages and acquires MRI facilities and sells machines. Not sure how to judge the benefits of their upright machines vs. comps but figure that with a near 20% fcf yield cash-adjusted, growing, good ROE's and $30m net cash that they will weather the storm. The management arm has nice recurring cash flows that are signed under contracts with radiologists.

     

    BTW, I didn't necessarily mean that the big moats are coupled with the high yields if I didn't make that clear initially.

     

    OK, thanks.

    Agreed on FB.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man!

     

    However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere).

     

    Yes this is not good. I am very worried about where this is going.

    Is anybody thinking about what happens with vegetables from California, Georgia and all these places? Or we're all just gonna have to shift to eating corn?

     

    I am sure the great value investors from CoBF will finally get jobs picking strawberries.

    Your all hard work is going to be sincerely appreciated.

    Will Work From Home Be a Permanent Trend

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This is the end of the office as we know it

     

    The pandemic already pushed millions to work from home. Many of them will likely go back to a very different office.

     

    https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/14/21211789/coronavirus-office-space-work-from-home-design-architecture-real-estate?utm_source=pocket-newtab

     

    I really hope that our company won't institute "grab a temp desk" office. This totally sucks (as do open plan offices).

     

    My cube is my castle.

    Will Work From Home Be a Permanent Trend

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    shhughes1116 - Can you expand on this topic "I will share one interesting observation, at least in my opinion.  Good leaders can lead, whether their staff is remote or in the office.  Shitty managers are shitty managers, regardless of where their staff are located.  I think remote work really highlights those that are good at leading and connecting with people, and those who believe leadership is randomly showing up at your office door to "make sure you are working". " 

     

    Not shhughes1116, but hey here's my 0.02.

     

    Personally, I separate good managers and good leaders.

     

    Good managers are the ones who take care of the team. It's all cliche, but they are the ones who care that team members get responsibilities according to their strengths and weaknesses. And at the same time encourage team members to improve their weak sides. And care about team member personal and professional growth. Interface the team with higher management and other teams. Deal with politics. Build team spirit and camaraderie. Make sure the team is valued. Makes sure the team gets adequate support and renumeration.

     

    Good leaders are much less common. For me a good leader is someone who directs the team into new high value and/or high growth directions as they appear or even before they appear. It is someone who notices trends before others and gets the team positioned accordingly. Ideally it's Steve Jobs or Bill Gates, but it doesn't have to be someone who produces iPhone. The leadership could be something less groundbreaking. It could be someone who first notices move to cloud computing and pushes company's product to be rewritten as SaaS on AWS. It could be someone like Munger who pushes Buffett to switch to moaty businesses. (Buffett himself is a leader in certain aspects too). It could be someone who noticed that ETFs are coming and converted mutual fund shop to ETF shop. Or just positioned the team inside the organization accordingly.

     

    Some people would call a person a leader even when that person focuses on existing strengths or focus areas and never changes direction. E.g. someone who gets a management role in a company known for frugality and keeps the team focused on saving every cent in product costs. Or someone who leads a team that produces a great software package and keeps that project steady on track. I personally don't consider such people leaders. IMO they are managers - without any negative connotation attached to that term.

     

    Of course, in the real world there are shades of grey . Most great managers have to show some leadership if they stay managers for a long time. They cannot stay at the same place or their team would become irrelevant. Converse is true less often: leaders can be lousy managers or not managers at all.

     

    I mostly agree with shhughes1116 that good manager can deal with distributed team. IMO it's not as easy as dealing with co-located team though. Personal interaction matters, shared activities in office matter. Remote manager loses a number of tools that help and faces higher hurdles to do best for the team.

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