Jurgis
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Posts posted by Jurgis
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I don't even know what to say here.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-weighs-paying-drillers-to-leave-oil-in-ground-amid-glut-1.1422060
Works for farmers, so why not! ::)
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I'm trying to ask this uncontroversially mostly medical professionals here: assuming a gradual relaxation of the lockdown with no vaccine, no treatment, and no (or minimal) testing/tracking. Would you say going out is acceptable or too risky? Let's assume a medium-high risk state like MA. Let's assume not super vulnerable person.
If we want to talk concrete "going out" categories, let's say going to parks, general shopping, meeting friends/family, going to office/work, going to a restaurant (I tried to order this from least risk to most risk).
Outcome of "severe" infection sounds very scary. That has to be balanced with infection risks though.
I know this is a bit theoretical and uncertain, but since there's a talk of "relaxation" even in NY state, maybe this could be useful.
I could open a new topic... but probably not worth it.
Thanks
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Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family. Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high. Probably a hedge against political instability.
Didn't they get a note to use bitcoin?
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Tilson's cumulative return is ~8.4% annual. Let's call it 8.5%. So you deposit $1M into escrow. A contender sets up $50K account in which they invest as they like. If they outperform 8.5% annual in 5 years, the $1M is paid out to that person. Agreements/etc. are all public.
Sounds right?
And this is open to anyone on CoBF who contacts you with a contract. Well, maybe to first 10 comers just in case there's too much interest.
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If you have balls, you would go out there and beat his record first. Then I will pay up. I'll give you as many years it takes.
I'm a patient guy:)
Right. Empty promises from anonymous guy on the Internetz.
You should work on your selling grasshopper.
Maybe read more Whitney Tilson manual.
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I dare you to open your own fund or business. It is not easy. I triple dare you. I'll give you a million buck if you
can out perform him.
It's a deal. You deposit $1M into escrow account at reliable mutually-agreed custodian. We write up a contract. All documents to be public and published on CoBF.
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Tilson is selling "founding partner" of his newsletter for $6000.00. What a bargain ;)
Dear future partner,
I’m pleased to personally invite you to become a “founding partner” of the Empire Financial Partnership.
Now, what I mean by “Founding Partner” doesn’t have to do with getting shares of my company or anything like that… It means that you’re entitled to every new product we ever publish… for life!
But I must warn you…
You’ll never see another offer like this ever again.
Giving away a “piece of my business” at such a low introductory rate is me fulfilling a promise I made to Porter Stansberry…
"for life" .... or until I shut down this newsletter and start another something...
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Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them.
Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts.
Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.
This practice is spreading hugely:
No-longer-United States of America.
And people expect a "reopen" soon? LOLZ.
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He's alive!
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Politicizing the crisis response:
President Donald Trump's name will appear on checks sent to millions of Americans to combat the economic effects of the coronavirus in a last-minute Treasury Department order, a senior administration official confirmed to CNN on Tuesday.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/trump-name-checks-coronavirus/index.html
Herr Dicktator is pure Cialdini genius.
Buying votes legally.
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I'll add my comments about the situation in poland because i see the opposite.
Poland has strict lockdown rules. Only leave the house for work (if you have to), groceries, pharmacy. Fines are fairly large but the police don't seem to fine for minor infractions unless you are doing something stupid or were under a quarantine order.
Almost everyone is practicing social distancing. Shops have a maximum number of patrons at a time. I believe it's 3 per cash register. Many people are wearing masks now even though it has not even been suggested by the government, nevermind required.
The social distancing is working, the curve is flattening. As of today, there are 7,200 confirmed cases in a population of 38 million living right next to German and with (previously) open borders to the rest of the EU. 363 Dead.
I believe in a few weeks, the lockdown will be eased in small steps. I think masks will be mandatory for indoor establishments and I think there is large pent up demand for in-person interactions
Thanks. I guess people reactions and behavior vary by country/location a lot. E.g. what I hear from Lithuania is closer to what you wrote about Poland vs what I hear from Germany and Austria.
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The dissolution during a market drop/pandemic is quite unfortunate. Even with all the effort I'd guess it's hard to make decisions what positions to keep/sell/buy when dissolution is going to happen in short term. There's likely losses and opportunity losses due to this situation. I can see "sleepless nights" there. :( Tough luck. Best wishes to all involved.
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On the side of "pent up demand and V-shape recovery", what I hear from Germany and Austria people are going out a lot and not taking the social isolation precautions very seriously. This might be true in other locations too. So perhaps even without vaccine/treatment there will be a (large?) proportion of the population who will go out shopping/travelling/eating-out once forceful restrictions are lifted. Although there still remains the question whether this will lead to big reinfection flare-ups.
Personally, I don't plan to go out much even if restrictions are lifted if treatment/vaccine is not available. OTOH, I am currently going out more than a bunch of US people, who only go out to grocery store once a month. So clearly it's all very anecdotal.
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An article on the generational economic impact of coronavirus:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/millennials-are-new-lost-generation/609832/
The Millennials entered the workforce during the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Saddled with debt, unable to accumulate wealth, and stuck in low-benefit, dead-end jobs, they never gained the financial security that their parents, grandparents, or even older siblings enjoyed. They are now entering their peak earning years in the midst of an economic cataclysm more severe than the Great Recession, near guaranteeing that they will be the first generation in modern American history to end up poorer than their parents.
It's more that low income people are f&*cked ... again.
John Oliver Coronavirus IV
Haven't watched this yet. As I get older, I get more cynical and realize that people can make careers out of telling people that they are the oppressed. I wonder what these celebrities are like in person. The question is "Do the guy broadcasting to millions about structural unfairness eat caviar?"
So in your opinion the fact that a guy on TV (or a person on CoBF) is rich means that they cannot talk about the issues faced by poor people?
You realize that this would remove yet another way for poor people issues to be heard? Let's sweep them under the rug, yeah?
You already sit here in the CoBF echo chamber of rich and entitled self-made people who mostly assume that being poor comes from being dumb or making bad choices and "everyone could be rich if they only applied themselves".
Perhaps it's not such a bad thing that there are people who show the real situation.
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"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"
Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."
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...
Their performance numbers are food for though.
https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-hoisington-us-treasury-fund/
I skipped everything as you requested. Just looked at the performance numbers. Aren't these just what you get if you expect low/zero/negative rates and you sit in the longest-end of treasury curve?
This clearly has worked wonders for last 20-30 years. But will it really work going forward? (Of course, people wondered that for the last 20-30 years lol).
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An article on the generational economic impact of coronavirus:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/millennials-are-new-lost-generation/609832/
The Millennials entered the workforce during the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Saddled with debt, unable to accumulate wealth, and stuck in low-benefit, dead-end jobs, they never gained the financial security that their parents, grandparents, or even older siblings enjoyed. They are now entering their peak earning years in the midst of an economic cataclysm more severe than the Great Recession, near guaranteeing that they will be the first generation in modern American history to end up poorer than their parents.
It's more that low income people are f&*cked ... again.
John Oliver Coronavirus IV
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Some time ago there was a completely horrible article about the scam in the US retirement homes. People were scammed to move into the retirement facilities, lost their property, got drugged in the retirement home so they wouldn't raise issues. If you don't have relatives who care and fight for you, you are screwed. Even if you have relatives, the retirement home mafia got court orders from friendly judges to remove/restrict relative access to the seniors they were mistreating.
Overall, I am not sure if this can be solved. Especially for people with no relatives. Doubly especially if a person has any cognitive slowdown. Even if there is a well intentioned government agency, how easy is it to figure out if someone with dementia is being abused/overmedicated/under-cared/etc?
Oh yes, blockchain! Just what the doctor ordered.
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Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them.
Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts.
Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.
What happened with "Live free or die"?
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Thanks. Bought it.
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We are still ordering for pickup or delivery. We went for pickup yesterday and my wife said something like "they are doing good business". I thought, "hmm it's 7-10 cars vs 60-100 patrons". But then I thought that the cars stay there for 5-10 minutes max and patrons stayed for hour+. So maybe they are doing OK. Depends on a restaurant clearly. Holes in the wall that mostly did delivery before pandemic are probably doing OK (maybe better? not sure). A lot of places just shut down. The ones that are trying to convert from (somewhat fancy) sit-down to delivery are probably not doing very well. But it does depend. Places that are doing half-a$$ job in trying to convert are very likely faring worse than the ones who are really making effort to show that they are there for customers and community. And pre-pandemic reputation also helps.
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If the all clear sign is given i think economy rebounds and then some with all the stimulus.
But that's the key point, isn't it?
Sure, if (when) all is clear, we all happily go to 2019-normal.
But what exactly is "all clear" and when is it going to happen? The economic impact will depend on the answer to this question. The effects are going to be very different if "all clear" is in June 2020 vs if it is in December 2021.
Also
How much changed after the Spanish Influenza? Not a whole lot, in fact we saw an explosion in GDP as life returned into normal. And keep in mind there were three waves of that influenza. Everyone knew someone who was seriously affected. Also note that there was no vaccine or therapeutic. After the third wave, it faded away and never returned.
Yes, and it took 2+ years. If Covid takes 2+ years to resolve, then the economic impact will be worse than Great Recession for sure.
And yeah 5-10+ years into the future the economy will likely recover and grow. But if you think that 2 years of social isolation is not going to be bad for economy, then you are very overoptimistic.
So really anyone expecting mild impact is just betting on "all clear" within couple months.
For me the partial-tentative "reopening" without a vaccine and/or cure is not "all clear". JMHO.
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It depends how Covid pandemic ends.
The best case: THE PILL! Antiviral that treats the disease is found. You get symptoms, you take the pill, you are cured. Everyone goes back to 2019 behavior. We win.
The next best case: Near 100% (think measles) preventative vaccine is created. Same as above though probably takes longer than above.
The not so good case: 70-80% (think flu) vaccine is created. People may go back to 2019 behavior but who knows.
The bad case: No vaccine. Wait for herd immunity. Drawn out process, tons of deaths, people may go back to 2019 behavior, but not very likely.
The very bad case: No vaccine or 70-80% vaccine, but virus mutates like flu virus does. Social distancing forever or a risk of dying through social contact every year. This is probably very unlikely case.
IMO, we will end up with "not so good case" (although I am not a vaccine expert - perhaps "the next best case" is also likely). IMO it's very hard to predict how people will deal with this. Quite possibly economic outcome will be bad.
Apparently Bill Gates is somewhat optimistic about THE PILL. So maybe it's gonna be better than I think.
Edit: I did not cover the case of "no vaccine, no cure, just track and test". IMO that's not a sustainable solution long term. I might be wrong though.
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- Yesterday parking lot in Fells dog-walking meadow was closed and police car was parked outside likely to discourage illegal parking on the highway. I guess someone decided that a ton of people coming to dog walk in meadow/forest is creating transmission risk. Of course the unintended consequence is that other parking lots that are even less equipped to handle the dog walker/casual walker traffic were swamped. If you prevent people from walking in one part of the forest, they go elsewhere and you might end up with even more people density. ::)
- We are watching movies and our reaction is "wow people are not socially distancing, what kind of crazies are they". Now, this is mostly a joke so far, but there is some cognitive effect. I hope we don't end with social-distancing-forever and looking nostalgically at movies/documentaries where people shook hands, kissed, etc.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
These are good suggestions. Thanks.