Jurgis

I predict this thread will reach 100 pages. Unless my prediction kills it cold. In which case another similar thread will reach 100 pages. ;D

Hmm, OK. :) I'd look at it the following way. There are 3 different issues that may happen with investment: 1. Your process is flawed. 2. Your process is OK, but you deviate from it. 3. Your process is OK, but there's never 100% success rate and you get one of the failures. When I see someone saying "hindsight bias" about this thread, it seems that they are implying that #3 occurred but people think #1 happened (or vice versa?) In general, #2 should be easy to detect and avoid - but it isn't because of below. Distinguishing #3 and #1 is difficult for various reasons. People are not sure about their process. People don't have a precise definition about their process. Because of the same reasons, people deviate from the process without noticing it (#2) or notice it and rationalize it (still #2). Probably only #2 is a "mistake". #1 is a poor choice of process - although it perhaps could be called mistake with a stretch. #3 is not a mistake - it's an inevitable result of investing in unpredictable world. Going back to cloud (not picking on him personally, but just for illustration) - here's my analysis. Others might see it differently though, I don't claim I see the truth. He had a process. He deviated from the process by bad position sizing (#2). Then #3 occurred - KORS started dropping. He deviated from the process even more (#2 again). Now he thinks that his process was bad (#1) and he abandoned it. In reality his process may have been good (although I cannot say for sure), but he got sucked in by #2 and #3. Looking at myself (so we don't pick just on cloud ;)), I usually succumb to #2 (deviation from process), because I am not sure if my process is good (i.e. I am not sure if I'm in #1) and because some opportunities look very attractive even though they don't conform to the process (that's still #2!). Take care

How would you distinguish a real mistake from a hindsight bias? :)

Very few got JPM at $50. My Fido order filled at $58 I think.

I think valueinvesting101 is asking whether they can buy PCP stock on open market while they have offer for it pending. I think they can up to poison pill level (if any), but I'm not 100% sure. In some other countries, this is not allowed.

Right. I am not bitching that it's dropping either. I'll keep buying. I am trying to understand the short term moves, which is of course a no no. That's why I said "Feel free to ignore". :) I guess it's harder for you since you have a big position.

Jurgis, Jurgis, Jurgis. Now did I say I was an oracle? No I didn't Jurgis. That was a question. :) Thanks for answering it. :D

And NOV is still green for the day... ;)

As I said before, I have ~26% of cash. Which may be too much or too little depending on how things work out.

Feel free to ignore below. I find it interesting that BRK is so weak recently. It has already dropped quite a bit this year and it's underperforming in a crash too. It seems that people don't think BRK is a good hold for a downdraft and there's not much buying either. I wonder if this is due to the fact that they bought PCP and people think they don't have enough cash for buybacks or opportunistic investments in a market drop. Anyway, so far "BRK is cash equivalent" theory has been thoroughly discredited this year.

Depends on a stock. Some stocks are down 20+% this year. BRK is down >15%. Oil stocks are down... censored. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Are you an oracle?

Looks like this would be a good strategy for some ETFs too? Might work. Some markets (and brokers?) don't allow limit orders >10% (20%? - can't find reference) below market price.

Good post ap1234. :)

Apollo 13 is one of the best movies ever.

Well, Icahn was somewhat right about ETFs.

I saw FDN down 20% after you mentioned it was down 40% and I did not buy it. I'm an idiot too. ;) Nah, these things require really fast fingers, great broker, fast thinking. ETF opportunities were real, but some other thinly traded stocks were not: they were down 10-15% with no volume so nothing really went through. So don't beat yourself. You got what you got, can't get them all, tomorrow's another day, etc. Peace.

Got crappy execution on BRKB, but good ones on JPM, AAPL. @tombgrt: Yeah, this might not be the end. I only spent ~2% of my portfolio buying today so far. Still got ~26% in cash. Missed your FDN down 40%. Edit: yeah, I got LMCA too.

JPM & AAPL orders went through, BRKB went through too. Was on hold with Fido at their high priority line for 20 minutes never got rep... Edit2: Fido website is working though after some glitches.

Everything. 8)

I think his point was that 1.2x P/BV might not be hard line in the sand below which stock won't drop. So it's not about valuing BRK, but rather possibly keeping some powder dry for prices below 1.2x P/BV if they don't stop decline via buybacks.

I agree with rb. Unlike deflation derivatives that might be for sale at the right price, I doubt that Prem will exit equity hedges if market drops even 20%. I hold FFH, but not because of their equity hedges. I am buying BRK. Most of the other stocks are still too expensive for my taste, including the ones mentioned by rb. There are pockets of cheapness, though some of them might be illusionary (oil cos for example).

Right, these are issues for India and China in terms of air quality (and for world in terms of pollution). OTOH that might not save US thermal coal companies.

I agree, I feel like I am biased bc of my long position but where are the counter points and arguments? Who do you expect to provide counterpoints and arguments? Who has motivation and time to do that? There is no motivation on investment side: shorting these guys does not work/scale even if you could make a >60% argument that government will win. On the journalist side - who wants to claim that government did the right thing? Where's the story in that? In any case, you don't want a journalist story, you want a legal argument. So that leaves lawyers with a lot of time on their hands, preferably who frequent CoBF to write a bear story. How many do you think there are? The legal arguments on the long side are made pretty much by interested parties with agenda. The government side legal arguments are made in court like doughishere said. Merkhet might be closest you can get to somewhat neutral and legally trained person to provide legal argument here. But I guess he's not into writing bear case. ;)

+1

Shilling is an idiot. But at least he's right in the long term... I mean in really long term... I mean like 30 years.