Parsad

Supersized monstrosity! What a horrible waste of space...destruction of such a beautiful lawn...and looks stupid compared to the original Mansion! Seems like something Aaron Spelling would have built! Cheers! https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-79-feuds-white-house-154144429.html

The stuff I have in my taxable and corporate accounts will never be sold. They are long-term holdings regardless of market volatility or valuation. The stuff in my non-taxable accounts is based on valuation...if it goes to 2.2-2.5 times book, I'll probably be completely out. If it got to 1.7-2.0 times book, I would be seriously thinning the position. The stuff I bought two weeks ago, I sold that yesterday at $2,450...it was a non-taxable account. I was just betting on a rebound to fair value. Because of my conservative bent on valuation, selling is never a problem. I have probably sold too early on several occasions, but I've also bought too early on many occasions. It's just part of the game! Averaging in has been the saving grace...you trust your analysis, you keep buying till the bottom, and then average out over time as it goes back up. Cheers!

Yes. I think it's exactly where it should be for now. As earnings continue to grow and more capital is retained, that number will increase over time. Cheers!

That's what makes shorting so difficult. Burry was wrong on MBS for two years...Greenblatt was going ballistic on him during that period. And unless you are using something like derivatives, the upside to shorting is quite limited. It really isn't worth the risk if your timing is completely off! Cheers!

Oh, I agree...the macro stuff is extremely difficult to navigate. At the same time, I remember what Sam Mitchell said to us at my dinner in Toronto during the GFC: "Macro doesn't really matter until it does!" You would think Yogi Berra would have said that if he was an economist! Cheers!

I can understand that sentiment, but many people are ignoring the smaller indicators that something is amiss under the surface. Like Hegseth's recent threats to General Mark Milley...both Constitutional and military law protect the General from Hegseth's threats to court martial him. Yet, Hegseth threatens to punish a respected military officer who has spent his entire life in service to the country. The breakdown in due process with migrants, citizens, protestors, etc. The list goes on and on. All this stuff is eroding the guardrails or are attempts to remove the guardrails. Ignoring this behavior is very dangerous to the country's short-term and long-term well-being. It doesn't mean the U.S. cannot survive someone like Trump...but his behavior on many issues could undo or undermine what Presidents before him built over 250 years! Cheers!

The earnings number changes every year...so you run a quick analysis each year and come up with the number you would be willing to buy below. My point is it just doesn't have to be as complicated as people make it. When it was at $450 CDN, I was pounding the table, screaming it was a buy. I had zero hesitation loading up half of my portfolio in FFH stock...even before Prem bought his $150M and clearly sent a message to everyone to buy. I didn't do any extensive analysis...just the same quick one I do every year. Yet, there were very smart people out there, including many of the analysts who cover Fairfax...their targets did not move...they did not load up. A once in 20 year opportunity with Fairfax stock...nope, they did not take advantage of it! Don't allocate to a portfolio solely on the premise that management is buying. It is an indicator, but should not be one relied upon. I still would have loaded up whether Prem bought the $150M or not, as well as the TRS. Cheers!

Yes, you are both right. That's the built in conservative margin. As per Buffett...if you know the bridge can hold 4500 pounds...do you drive over it with 4400 pounds? At 3,000 pounds I know that there is nearly a zero chance of the bridge collapsing. Cheers!

I've followed Fairfax for 25 years...same with Berkshire. I know the companies inside out. I know management inside out. So I have extreme comfort with my simple analysis on them now. I can do that for about 250-300 companies with some degree of simplicity...that's what a circle of competence is. When you have level of circle of competence with a portfolio of companies, you know when it is cheap and when it isn't without having to get into the nitty gritty. I think too many investors over think their own analysis and it creates paralysis. They lack conviction often even if they've done extensive analysis on the company...that is a psychological issue, not one of having enough information. If Fairfax is $1,800 CDN today...does anyone truly need to run an analysis and decide if that is cheap or not? If GOOGL is $150 USD, do you really need to run an analysis? Not me, I back the friggin' truck and load up! Cheers!

Yes, you are probably right. So when it does trade at a price I find cheap...like $2,150 two weeks ago when I nibbled again...it must be conservatively calculated. Cheers!

Nope...doesn't have to be even remotely that complicated! If you understand the business, it's pretty straight forward in coming to a simple way to evaluate it and maintain a margin of safety. It's very easy to tell when it is cheap and when it is not. Most analysis of stocks is far more complicated than it has to be. Cheers!

The checks and balances are already being undermined domestically! They are now being undermined globally. You just choose to ignore it. In economic terms, Trump isn't just going off the gold standard, he's betting everything on Bitcoin...that's what is happening presently politically. Cheers!

He may be right, he may be wrong...only time will tell. Hard to say he isn't trying if he ends up being right. Although if he is wrong, then you would be correct. When the whole world told him he was wrong about MBS, it may have created an issue where once you are fixated on an idea, it becomes hard to decipher why you may be wrong, rather than right again. We shall see! Cheers!

They are doing around $50 per quarter and that is without any significant catastrophe loss. So I'm just assuming that investment gains offset catastrophe losses and they continue to do what they are doing. Cheers!

I'm talking about the past, back in 1998 through 2007. When they were using heavy leverage and buying below average insurers and turning them around. Leverage used that way wasn't any better than debt and they were using a lot...especially after the Crum and Odyssey acquisitions. That's when they got clobbered and Sam Mitchell suggested let's take the hit and clean everything up at once. Then Andy came in and the insurance culture changed in 2010. They are now running the way they should have always been running...but you live and learn! Cheers!

$180-200 USD per share in earnings...add it to book value every year...multiple of 1.25. Buy below that, you are good. Buy well below that...you have a nice margin of safety. Cheers!

There might be a cousin or two...maybe Robbert Hartog was also in there before he passed away...but as far as I know, Prem and Nalini own the 50%. Like Buffett's kids, their children will be stewards of the capital and do with it what their parents would want them to do. The Watsa's have a very deep philanthropic streak, so I imagine much of it will be given to worthy causes over the long-term. Cheers!

That's pretty much what he did! If you go to the AGM, look for the guy in flip-flops and probably a t-shirt even though its very early spring in Toronto! No suit, no tie...no shoes even. Most shareholders would feel like they should give this guy some money. But nope, he does not need it! Cheers!

Yeah, but you were one of those people who averaged down over the years, and actually bought more when it was cheaper...that was your saving grace and why you are rich now! Otherwise you would not be nearly as rich, nor as happy! Cheers!

Definitely make forecasts...using conservative assumptions though, which helps reduce flaws in forecasting. Or I average down in many of those cases where I just wasn't conservative enough. My main point is that if people think that they are being conservative by extrapolating the last 5 years over the last 30 years...that may just be one of those significant flaws! Cheers!

Wintaai's September 2025 Update, as well as their new venture Win Re. For those that have a good grasp of insurance, but really want to understand the nitty gritty side of an insurance operation, Francis' letters are a must read! You'll also understand what makes Francis so special as an investor/operator...few have that type of skillset! Cheers! Wintaai Financial Highlights September 2025.pdf 2025 Q3 Win Re update.pdf

Sorry, I didn't understand exactly what you were referencing. Yeah, shares sold at a premium were beneficial. Unfortunately, not beneficial to the shareholders who bought those overpriced shares! Cheers!

What bothers me is that Trump is turning back the clock on 80 years of foreign policy, pushing for democracy and capitalism, supporting its allies, fighting for freedom. Instead he's choosing isolationism, nationalism, restricting global markets and pushing away allies, while enriching himself, his family and his cronies! As long as the MAGA agenda is pushed, the broad policy and fundamentals that made America what it is, are now being relegated to history! Cheers!

Are you kidding me? The leverage is what caused the problems and nearly destroyed Fairfax in the ensuing years. Leverage is leverage...it cuts both ways. When you have large catastrophe losses, it wipes out huge swathes of equity and makes the company extremely vulnerable or can kill it. When you get it right, it juices returns at the risk of large catastrophe losses. There is no way to make leverage risk free. Float is not risk free leverage...it's just leverage that is cheaper than debt when underwriting and investment culture is good. There is nothing wrong in your assumption that you can pay a higher p/b for Fairfax...but caveat emptor...buyer beware. The higher valuation you pay, the lower your margin of safety. Optimism is not a good defense when investing! Cheers!

The U.S. is not spending any money on Ukraine presently...just selling weapons to Europe which gives it to Ukraine. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10308/ But Europe and Ukraine can't tell the U.S. Peace Plan committee to fuck off because they would cut off the weapons sales that are keeping Ukraine in the fight. The beloved Nobel Peace Prize wannabee is just another grifter...he's going to take a chunk out of Ukraine's economy and resources, while letting his buddy Putin get what he wants so that the U.S. faces no resistance on those economic gains. And a few new Trump hotels and universities will suddenly pop up in Kyiv! Cheers!