Parsad

+1! Cheers!

Whatever Greg! That's what Prem and the team do all day, sit on their asses and smoke cigars. The change in fundamentals is what allowed them to pay down debt, pay off their LOC, buy back shares and now issue a security for a portion of ORH to buy back even more shares. Otherwise none of that would have happened. Cheers!

Prem doesn't care about price in any given year or year-end. As long as the price reflects intrinsic value over time, he's happy. This was just an opportunistic way to buy back shares...if it improves visibility on share price, then that's just icing on the cake. All institutions are reaching for yield now with interest rates so low and asset prices so high. Pension funds like OMERS are looking at any way they can generate interest income. Buying a stake in ORH, with Fairfax likely to buy it back over time, and in the mean time reap above market rates on the deal...that's a win for OMERS with limited risk. It's also a win for Fairfax to be able to buy a large amount of shares at reasonable prices. Cheers!

Probably correct. But remember with large losses come large premium increases. With the flooding and damage in BC, we are going to see 3-4 times insurance price increases in the affected regions next year and the year after. Cheers!

They are limited in what they can buy back with an issuer bid. So they buy back shares offered now in the dutch auction, and then they've also locked in a buy back price through the TRS which they can exercise outside of a normal course issuer bid. In essence, they may be able to buy back 20-25% of their stock at reasonable prices without being limited under a normal course issuer bid. Prem has often talked about Singleton and Teledyne. This is Fairfax's Teledyne buyback moment! Cheers!

Yup! It's win-win for Prem. Either they buy back stock for cheap or they've proven that Odyssey Re's valuation is higher than on paper. Question for those more astute on these matters, will this mean a repricing of Odyssey on the balance sheet? Based on IFRS, the new securities would reprice Odyssey's fair market value significantly higher than on the current financials, in turn increasing book value per share. Cheers!

Well, I guess Prem isn't waiting for gravity! Here comes the massive buyback you guys wanted. A dutch auction to force the price higher while any shares tendered will be retired at a really good price to intrinsic value. If this doesn't push the stock to at least $625 CDN, nothing will until gravity eventually kicks in! Cheers!

...Bitcoin or Green Bay Packers stock certificates? For those that own crypto, please explain how the current batch of crypto are any different than the Green Bay Packers stock certificates issued regularly, with little in voting rights, no profit sharing, no assets backing them, etc. Cheers! https://sports.yahoo.com/one-year-after-booking-record-profits-packers-seeking-90-m-in-faux-stock-offering-to-fan-base-001540715.html

I've seen this over and over for the last 20+ years with Fairfax and with different investments. If the long-term fundamentals of the business have truly changed, like gravity, the price will move up or down to intrinsic value. It's not a re-rating, or question of "if this happens", but it ALWAYS happens. Any business or investment will always long-term be priced at the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of it...be it in liquidation or long-term cash flow. The question is how much time it takes and will the net annualized return compensate for the risk taken. Generally, if a business is generating positive free cash flow, is priced below liquidation value, and has manageable debt, you've taken most of the risk out of the investment. Then all it comes down to is patience! Cheers!

Berkshire continues to churn out boatloads of cash...I don't think the model is the problem. Impatient investors wanting to maximize shareholder value for short-term gains, rather than growing something long-term and durable are at war with one another. In other words, owning the work of art as a long-term asset versus selling the work of art for short-term liquidity. Cheers!

With the announcements of GE and Johnson & Johnson breaking up, we now have the announcement of Toshiba breaking up. Is the long-waited end of the Japanese keiretsu that global value investors have been pushing for finally here? Alot of unrealized shareholder value in these holdings! Cheers!

I've always felt that Susan should have been the first Buffett child sitting on the board...ahead of Howard. She's definitely her father's daughter, and has been fully involved with Berkshire, its meetings, engaging its shareholders, etc for quite some time. She has her mother's keen understanding for giving, and her father's instincts on responsibility. Cheers!

We all talk about making money on this site, but now heading into the season of goodwill, let's not forget about those that barely have enough to make ends meet. With many businesses still struggling, price inflation, etc, food banks and many other non-profits will be struggling to support those needing help. Cheers! https://www.voanews.com/a/fewer-in-us-turn-to-food-banks-but-millions-still-in-need-/6267495.html https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/11/business/london-food-banks-cnnphotos/ https://www.thenewswire.com/press-releases/1k98FbjXX-survey-shows-alberta-nonprofits-struggling-with-growing-demand-fewer-resources-and-concerns-about-staff-mental-health.html

I don't see the dividend going up...not until the stock is at full value and they have excess cash flow still coming. The whole point behind it was simply because Fairfax didn't want managers, including Prem, to have to sell shares to top off their income or do things outside of what their normal salary could afford them...long-term partners, long-term gain, long-term control, long-term focus. So they instituted the dividend. But with the stock so low, they will run things normal, be financially secure, buyback stock...and then when the stock is fully valued, possibly increase the dividend then, as buybacks wouldn't make as much sense. Cheers!

No, you don't negate the catastrophe losses, but stripping them out gives you the actual normal operating expense/loss ratio. Which allows you to make apples to apples comparisons between insurance years, and a better understanding if they are writing higher premium/lower loss business. For example, you look at Brit's losses and all you see is loss after loss for four years. But if you can strip out the catastrophe losses, you can get a better idea if their normal operating expenses/losses are getting better or worse. If they are going down, then you can assume they are either running more efficiently, pricing polices at a higher premium or are benefiting from reserve redundancies. Cheers!

+1! Regarding book gains, there is $37 coming from digit in the 4th Q, plus another $19 from excess above fair value of non-insurance businesses...so book will be around $618+ USD at the end of 4th Q or about $770+ CDN per share. I know some are concerned about Brit: The losses for the last few years ensures premium pricing will go even higher for Brit's clients, so while it takes some time, I don't think we'll see such losses going forward on a cyclical basis. Odyssey's losses are about in line with their normal expected catastrophe losses based on where and the type of business they write. I would be happy to see Brit write such business! Allied is killing it, as are most of the other insurance businesses. Cheers!

Based on Markel's results, granted they have more specialty lines and less reinsurance, they wrote at a killer 93% CR for the 3rd quarter and are writing at 91% for the year so far. Hopefully Fairfax's insurance results are as good. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-reports-2021-third-quarter-204400657.html

Oh the irony! At least it's less carbon output than if they all drove! Cheers! https://ca.yahoo.com/news/vips-including-jeff-bezos-flew-035647387.html

Now they are getting out of the business altogether! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/02/homes/zillow-exit-ibuying-home-business/index.html

Aha...3-5 mangoes a day...no wonder. I eat like maybe one mango a week...no wonder nothing happened to me. The tart ones make fantastic chutneys or Indian pickles. Try making a mango and avocado salsa with finely chopped red onions...you'll go crazy for it. Fantastic with salmon! Cheers!

100% Xerxes...I totally agree with this view! Fairfax should be conservative, and they often have been. But just their leverage alone is what forces them into a defensive position, when offense is what they should have been playing. If they had half the debt that they have, they would not have to focus nearly as much on macro events. Cheers!

Not entirely shorting. They also did not go significantly long after the financial crisis, as they were still expecting macro-events to unfold differently...just like Grantham, Rosenfeld, et al. They also did not go significantly long after March 2020. So, while shorting cost them alot, I think guessing on macro-events (particularly deflation and a huge market correction) was the main culprit. They underestimated the sheer magnitude of capital that the world would deploy after the housing crisis and then the pandemic. And the main reason they had to guess macro-events was so their insurance business would not get hit with the long-tail insurance they write and the amount of debt they were carrying. Markel, Berkshire, etc did not have this problem...they aren't as leveraged. But Fairfax had to short and hedge because of their leverage. I'm less concerned about Prem shorting markets when he thinks they are overvalued, then simply the debt load they carry which prevents them from going long when markets give them great opportunities. I would like to see the debt load cut in half! Cheers!

From what I understand, something was wrong with the algorithm they were using to evaluate purchases and were overpaying for the homes. Not sure by how much overall, but I believe I read 10% in some cases in another article. Cheers!

What a mess! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-seeks-sell-7-000-184559654.html

Like Fairfax, is BRK going to have a huge adjustment to book with the Nubank IPO at $50B? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-backed-fintech-nubank-seek-140704906.html Cheers!