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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. A basket of shorts may decrease portfolio risk if they move opposite your long positions in a down market, but there is no guarantee any single short idea would...unless you are shorting an index ETF or similar. Shorting Fairfax during the financial crisis would have been very costly. My point goes back to paying someone like Chanos 1.5-2% a year to do what he does? How has that worked for the last five and a half years? The institutional imperative and modern portfolio theory drive people to do things like short...especially if they wrap their balls in ungodly amounts of leverage. Can you imagine what happens if that leverage begins to squeeze...thus stupid people, doing stupid things like shorting. Cheers!
  2. That's true, but it's absolute portfolio returns that matter for wealth, not absolute returns on individual investment line items. And risk matters too (especially when you are levered up), and shorts tend to reduce certain market risks in an obvious way. Of course risk matters. Do you think shorting is without risk? You have limited upside with unlimited downside...how is an investment based on that mitigating risk in a portfolio? This is the BS that those that short like to use to argue risk management. There are a number of ways of managing risk without the limited upside and unlimited downside of shorting. Cheers!
  3. Again, you can make that argument for Chanos, as he has made his living primarily as a short manager, but not for Einhorn. That being said, compare Chanos numbers for the last five years against the S&P 500 and you will see the stupidity in paying a hedge fund manager to protect you on the downside. Cash worked in 2007/2008 and cash would have killed Chanos over the last five years if you were worried about downside risk. Absolute returns over the long-run are all that matter if you plan on becoming wealthy! Ask Ericopoly! Cheers!
  4. You should compare it against what a short position in the S&P500 would have done in the same period. Why? Last I checked, Einhorn reported his results based on absolute returns...an 8% return is an 8% return. Cheers!
  5. This has been obvious for a long time now. I wasn't so sure. He's done a great job with his restaurant businesses, all things considered, but I think that a different skillset is probably required here. So I think he's probably a good businessman, but not necessarily a good leader. No, he's not a good CEO or leader of people, and the restaurants were doing best when he had better people around him. The restaurant business in the last couple of years has been neglected, as he over-leveraged it and was focused on CBRL and other endeavours...such as getting control and voting rights. Cheers!
  6. Watermelon Webworks updated the SMF software on the weekend, but they didn't install the modules. Once they installed the modules, for some reason the ads started duplicating. They are working on it as we speak...just taking longer than expected. Should be fixed some time today hopefully! Cheers!
  7. Watsa! Rawraw, if you are posting, then you've already registered and it was approved. You don't need to register again. Cheers!
  8. Looks like a capital commitment to help grow the business. Probably a minority stake and start to get the brand across Canada like Vij's. I sure hope they have gift cards at next year's AGM for the McEwen Group...their lobster grill cheese at Bymark is amazing! ;D Cheers!
  9. I would suggest that CONeal is absolutely correct here! I was asked to speak to some engineers at Google, and I said that I don't deserve to speak at Google until I've done something noteworthy. I've seen other managers write books about how to be like Buffett, yet their funds or businesses flounder or fail. I've seen a manager I praised highly fall mightily in terms of ethics and respecting shareholders. Shareholders will see us announce many new things over the next 5 months, next 5 years and as long as I can run the company. You are just at the very tip of the beginning...the 1st batter, of the 1st inning of a 9 inning game. Let's get through the first few innings before you think I deserve any sort of section for Premier. I'll do my best to get one though! ;D Cheers and thanks for your support!
  10. This is the purpose behind the whole section we have on books. I would recommend that you post a book, analysis of the book, and recommendation individually in that section. That way it is far more useful and is permanent. This thread will get lost in a few weeks and will serve no purpose. Cheers!
  11. He changed my whole life, as well as the lives of many of my friends....what more can I say? Cheers!
  12. Ah, yes...Russ Hannahman! Cheers!
  13. Hi Wesco, The date probably won't be announced for a few more weeks. Most likely late February or early March. Will provide the exact date towards the end of September or so. Cheers!
  14. Nothing right now, but over the summer I have enjoyed 5 Montecristo #5's I bought in Hong Kong Duty Free in late June. Really were fantastic cigars. Now I won't have any until I go to China again next year and bring some back. Cheers!
  15. +1! I was a bear when Jeff Rubin was predicting and writing about $200/barrel oil. People told me I was wrong then. Today, I'm watching people pour out of oil, and it has done nothing except to get me titillated and excited. If you think oil will be permanently at $40 or less per barrel, you are out of your mind. Cheers!
  16. Yup, had two mojitos with dinner and then had an espresso with dessert at CinCin's. My dinner companions had two Negronis, four G&T's, a mocha, cappuccino and Americano. There you go! Cheers!
  17. I'm going to dinner and drinks in the next half hour. Will let you know what I consumed later tonight! Most likely a mojito or OJ/Grey Goose. Cheers!
  18. Smart, frugal athlete...he's a baller who plans on not being broke after the NFL! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/308-pound-nfl-player-explains-184313572.html Cheers!
  19. No. Ben cannot be an officer of the company. In fact, no Watsa family member will be an officer of Fairfax. In Prem's demise, The Sixty Two Foundation controls the multiple voting shares, but there are safeguards in place so that no single family member, or even the entire Watsa clan, can influence any single decision. Just cannot happen based on how it is structured. Cheers!
  20. Hi Alek and anyone else who did not receive their proxy...its probably an error by Computershare. If you have not received your documents yet, or your broker has not received them yet, please contact Rick Salsberg, Vice President, Fairfax Financial Corporate Affairs at 416-367-4941. Cheers!
  21. Sanjeev---with the utmost respect---I cannot agree with your statement. I too am a very long time shareholder of Fairfax (initial shares bought in the mid 1990's). I stayed with the company through its darkest days and added to my aggregate shareholding throughout. Yes---my patience has been greatly rewarded. All the more reason why it pains me greatly to have to vote "No" against the Proposal at hand. My concerns with the Proposal are best described on page 20 of the Management Proxy Circular that was sent to shareholders. The two issues outlined on that page are as follows: 1) The Amendment may prolong the period of time during which Sixty Two can exercise a controlling influence on most corporate matters; and 2) The Amendment may have an anti-takeover effect. Detailed comments are provided for each of these items in the Circular. These items are significant enough (to me) that I believe as a shareholder of subordinated voting shares that I should be compensated for these two items which are arising only as a result of the Proposal at hand. I do not believe that Prem's commitment to remain as CEO for at least another 10 years and to fix his compensation at its current level are adequate compensation. I respect that others may disagree with my view and vote for the Proposal however I could not. Everyone should vote as their conscience dictates, but I think you guys have missed a couple of points: 1) The Amendment may prolong the period of time during which Sixty Two can exercise a controlling influence on most corporate matters; and Sixty-Two already controls Fairfax, and will never relinquish control of Fairfax. They'll stop acquisitions through share issuances before they ever give up control. The reason being, Fairfax like Berkshire, has done particularly well over the years under this structure and this corporate culture. This type of control could be tyrannical as we've seen with Biglari, or it could be successful and fair to shareholders as we've seen under Prem. 2) The Amendment may have an anti-takeover effect. Neither Prem, nor Sixty-Two which already has control, will ever sell Fairfax...so there is no anti-takeover premium or effect. Even back in the 1986 shareholder's letter, when it was still Markel, Prem stated that he would never sell: "Why did we sell subordinate voting shares which have only one vote and retain multiple voting shares (10 votes) for ourselves? Mainly because we wanted to control Markel Financial and manage the company to provide an above average long term return to shareholders. Our multiple voting shares are not traded and can be sold in the public markets only as subordinate voting shares. Also, a takeover offer for our shares, if accepted, immediately triggers a similar offer for all the common shares outstanding. A Canadian Tire type of situation, which we find very distasteful, cannot and will not happen with Markel Financial. However, we must add that it is extremely unlikely that we would sell our multiple voting shares even if an offer came in at 100% above the current market price. Thus, our multiple voting shares prevent an investor from getting an attractive one time bonanza. Our feeling though, is that for this short term pain, there could be some excellent long term gains. Berkshire Hathaway, for example, has experienced an unbelievable increase in its share price from $20 in 1965 to $3500 currently. Any takeover offer for Berkshire Hathaway, though attractive in the short run, would be hard pressed to match the long term returns that have been achieved. For Berkshire Hathaway, this is a fact. For us, it is only a goal!" Boy did Prem deliver! Cheers!
  22. I just thought that since the vote is around the corner, I would help clarify a couple of points some have been debating on the various threads regarding the upcoming SGM. Ultimately, shareholders should all decide what they are comfortable with, but long-term shareholders should realize that what Prem is doing isn't really any different than what Buffett is doing by donating significant shares to the Gates Foundation and his children's charitable trusts, as well as the intention to add Howard Buffett to the board of Berkshire. The Watsa family's only duty as stewards of the "63 Foundation" is really to safeguard the culture of Fairfax, not unlike the Gates Foundation and Buffett's children's trusts. None of the Watsa family will ever hold managerial or officer positions. There are also measures and safeguards in place in the "63 Foundation" to ensure that Fairfax cannot become another family-run dynasty. While Buffett is doing all of this towards the end of his tenure, Prem and Fairfax still have another 20 years to go at least. But Prem wanted to take care of these issues early before they became a problem, including the erosion of the multiple-voting shares if they continued to issue shares in acquisitions. Another thing I would recommend that shareholders do, is to get to know the Watsa family. You have the opportunity at the AGM every year. The children are as courteous and humble as their parents...so fortunately, the apples did not fall far from the trees! Again, please vote your shares as your conscience dictates, just be aware that the measures in place will safeguard Fairfax's culture, like Berkshire's, well after Prem and Buffett are gone. Cheers!
  23. Chinese tourists are notorious. I think there was a problem a while ago with people taking shits in the halls of museums in Egypt if there was a line in front of the toilets. There are lot's of amusing horror stories if you search for them. A lot of them behave like complete uncivilized pigs. Chinese government had to issue a press statement that this behavior was unacceptable. Straight from the countryside and Mao's era. And a lot of these idiots just discovered the stock market! still buying stocks at 100x earnings lol. And to think that a lot of these stocks are frauds. At least the dotcom bubble had somewhat of a legit reason behind it (an exciting new technology). I just came from China a week ago, and I saw nothing of the sort! In fact, I think every one with any such ignorant view of China needs to make a trip to get their facts straight. You'll be surprised exactly how quick this population has taken to capitalism and how sophisticated their country is becoming in short order. Yes, they will hit a wall, but just like the United States before the Great Depression, the world should have taken note on who was about to dominate the next 70 years! In terms of online boorish behaviour, China has over 1.6B people and counting...you are going to get idiots doing stupid things. How many videos are there of pig-like U.S. Walmart customers, yet that is a subsection of the subsection of the shopping base at Walmart. What I saw was mind-boggling in China, and if anyone thinks that Shanghai isn't the #2 money centre in the world already, should simply go stand on the Bund in Shanghai at night and look at Pudong across the river. Then, you will realize exactly what China is and how the people there are no different than the ones here...they want to take care of their family, they want a better life, they want to be comfortable and happy. Cheers!
  24. What I was expecting...now let's see who else decides to leave in the next couple of years. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-votes-referendum-future-euro-042002010.html#
  25. Thanks everyone! Much appreciated. Hope your 4th of July was terrific! Cheers!
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