tede02

Visited Hilton Head Island in South Carolina in August. Was my first time there. Very nice area.

Well, it looks like the yield party is coming to an end. It has been fun. Glad I locked in some treasuries and CDs north of 5% at a range of maturities. Most will come due over the next 3 years. Bond funds may still offer some opportunities. Total return is working again. Some of the funds I've looked yield over 5% and when you look at the underlying holdings, they average 90-95 of par.

My wife is in a situation presently where she took a "lead" position within the healthcare group she's employed. It pays a little extra but has significantly increased the stress/headaches of her job. I've been trying to convince her to walk away from it even if they offered to double or triple her lead pay. It has drained her mental and emotional energy. Just isn't worth it.

I guess I could have just shortened up my inital post to, "I wonder if the bond vigilantes are going to return soon?" For now, you definitely could be right. But the fiscal situation here is so unsustainable especially with Medicare and Social Security BOTH headed for fiscal crisis within 5-10 years. It seems a market shock may be the only thing that will force some kind of reform. If long rates popped up to 6, 7 or 8%, that would be pretty wild.

Guys, guys, guys, lets not go down the politics rabbit hole. All I'm getting at is if the Democrats were to prevail in November, I think it's likely they wouldn't renew the current tax law which expires at the end of 2025 (they would try to raise revenue). Very hard to see the Republicans letting the tax bill expire. And hard to imagine either party cutting spending in any meaningful way. (Not commenting on the merits of any of this.) I'm just thinking about a situation similar to what occured in the UK in 2022 when Truss proposed tax cuts against an already sizeable deficit and the market wagged its finger as in, "not going to happen." It seems like we just keep marching in that direction.

Think peak yields are in the rear-view mirror? One thing I think about is long yields increasing if Trump wins in November. I think there is no chance for fiscal restraint unless the markets force it. Would be interesting to see the turbulence if the 10-year shot past 5%. All the randomness and unpredictable events of the world never cease to amuse me.

The gradual downward trend in inflation continues. Gets me thinking about nominal treasuries vs. TIPS. 4.5% may be a very good rate looking back in a year. But I also worry about long yields spiking up as the current tax law is set to expire at the end of 2025. The budget deficit is huge and the debt is growing a lot. If the current tax regime is left in-place (assuming no spending reductions), market backlash is a real possibility. Long-story short, I'm sticking with 2-3 year maturies as some of my buys in recent years mature.

Yeah, I always think about this and the Cornwall Capital guys. I missed an opportunity in November 2022 when Facebook was bombed out. I knew it was cheap. Had a limit order on leaps placed near the bottom that never hit. Wasn't tryting to go all in or anything but it would have been a multi-bagger in short order. That one still smarts! Did good on the equity directly but sold too early!

Although panic periods can make great companies attractively priced, one of my observations is it's the low quality, more cyclical stuff that gets fire-saled during these situations. Financials, some retail, small-cap generally, lower volume generally, etc. will have these massive draw-downs which provides some huge upside potential. But it's obviously never easy when the future looks really dark.

Mnuchin is definitely a smart guy but I'm not seeing him as a successful politician! LOL.

This grabbed my attention: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/nycb-is-paying-the-nations-highest-interest-rate-apy.html#:~:text=NYCB raised the annual percentage,rates for his website DepositAccounts. Paying 5.55% on their high-yield savings product under the Flagstar-My Banking Direct brand . Obviously trying to attract deposits. I opened an account. It's a little clunky compared to Ally or Capital One's platform, but it's paying a much, much higher rate. Withdrawals are limited to $50k per day.

@thepupil You've got more guts than me. I've grabbed a little bit of 10-year notes and some 5-10 TIPS when yields have popped. But keeping it small dollar. I grabbed some 2-year today at over 5% YTM.

I bought a few ITM LEAPS on NYCB to ride Mnuchin's coat-tails. Just enough to keep me paying attention.

It doesn't look like price pressures on housing is going to ease in the immediate future but this caught my eye last week. Multi family construction has jumped to the highest level in 50 years and single family, though not at highs, is trending in the right direction. Probably takes a few years for this new supply to effect supply/demand balance. I also don't understand why the Fed board is talking up rate cuts. Financial conditions have eased substantially this year. The markets are wide open again with fresh IPOs and tightening spreads. It's kind of crazy. Feels a bit like 2021 again. If I were a member of the FOMC, I'd be really concerned that inflation will pick up materially if they cut rates. It also seems like the markets are really vulnerable to the Fed coming out and saying they aren't going to cut this year. One thing that does make me chuckle a little is despite all the gloom and doom in commercial real estate, the sector has been fortunate that the rest of the financial markets have been booming. Distressed sales seem to still be the exception rather than the norm. I'm sure it would be a very different situation if the economy was in recession, markets were down, etc. Who knows what happens in 2025 but it seems like CRE has been gifted a very favorable backdrop to muddle through for now.

LMAO. These guys can't get their story straight. In the 2021 UAPTF report, they reported that 144 out of 145 cases reviewed could not be identified even though 80 of them were picked up by multiple sensors. The new report says virtually everything they look at can be identified. It's a total joke. One of the Florida congressman (Moskowitz) said something that keeps me interested. Every time they (members of congress) ask the pentagon for answers or try to set-up hearings, they get HUGE push-back. The obvious question is why? If there's nothing there, why is there a vicious resistance at every turn? It doesn't make any sense. There's so much dis-info out there, it's difficult to sort through but I remain very curious about what lies behind all the obfuscation.