DanielGMask

“If you don't feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don't own it for 10 minutes.” “Charlie and I look for companies that have a) a business we understand; b) favorable long-term economics; c) able and trustworthy management, and d) a sensible price tag.” Both Buffett quotes. I don’t think Biglari is an investment you should feel comfortable owning long-term, nor Sardar a trustworthy partner!

I don’t think anything compares to Berkshire nor Buffett. Fairfax may end up being a bigger company than it’s today, but I think that having a Buffett mentality doesn’t make you the next Warren Buffett, nor your company the next Berkshire.

Rental car companies may be competitors, that’s certainly a possibility. My way of looking at this is that even though there are companies owning the rights to some music or movie, there are others having the distribution channel necessary to market that. The same way that some company owning the technology to make the best cellphone is not necessarily the same selling the most phones. Just because there are companies manufacturing cars that doesn’t mean they will be good marketing or providing a service with those cars, not that they will be able to compete with the leader. History proves that manufacturers are good doing that, manufacturing (and not even that!). About the business sense and margins I don’t know. I haven’t studied the model and I would not bet on any company, I’m just stating that I think there will be money to make in moving people within cities and towns and Uber looks like the leader.

I think that’s a fallacy. Having a huge fleet of cars is going to be expensive to set and expensive to mantain - It’s today and it will always be. Having a real and huge network of cars/drivers on demand an the digital ecosystem supporting that network is the most valuable thing here. Just as anybody can replicate the ITunes’ model (but in reality is not just that easy!), anybody would be able to replicate Uber’s model but it’s not going to be that easy!

But what is Uber’s edge running a large fleet of cars exactly? Network effects, scale economics, brand recognition, market share, etc, etc, etc. I have no clue if they are making money right now but moving people within a town or city is more necessary than ever and I’m confident there will be a lot of money to make and the first move advantage of these companies it’s going to be difficult to overcome.

Exactly! It’s incredible that this kind of article gets so much attention precisely due to the high reputation of the person which the article is clearly trying to damage.

Only that that's about the dumbest reason for buying Berkshire that I've ever heard. I’ll add. You are speculating and not investing! You are betting on some behavior and not investing because of the merits of the company nor its price. You may end up being right or not, I have no idea and would never spend my time thinking that way, but if you end up being right don’t confuse luck or even intelligent speculation with investing!

I don’t think it necessary to have 1B to think different. It’s not the same to invest 1,000 than 100,000 when it’s your own hard earned money. I get the point!

I'd love to see a store like that just for the experience (kind of like how I like to visit a large Ikea store once). But, after visiting the store on vacation, could you imagine yourself using the store on a regular basis? Seriously, 52 aisles is not grocery shopping, but rather it's your trip to the gym. In my neighbourhood, I have a number of grocery options within about 3~ish miles of my house, but I invariably end up using only two. Both stores are 15,000 or 18,000 square feet, which was about right during the 1980s, but is about half of today's standard. For most of my grocery needs, I am happy to visit the smaller stores as long as they are appropriately priced because I mostly use the peripheral aisles and I don't really want to walk a mile to buy a a couple of steaks, five pounds of potatoes, milk and a loaf of bread. And I really don't want to walk an extra 100 feet as I pass by clothing, dishes and other housewares. I just want to buy the ingredients to make supper and then to get the hell out of the store. Am I alone here? SJ No, I avoid the big places like the plague. I want to be in and out, and not walking a half mile to get groceries. I have other ways to exercise. Now, the average North American probably could use the exercise. I would think the future is more boutique shops. One of the things I like about France, Italy, and Spain are the small shops with bread, chacuterie, and normal groceries. I’m from Galicia, Spain. The American concepts are way more apealling. Lidl and Aldi are successful in Spain because they are cheaper and carry their own gourmet brands. Still, most people buys at Carrefour.

I'd love to see a store like that just for the experience (kind of like how I like to visit a large Ikea store once). But, after visiting the store on vacation, could you imagine yourself using the store on a regular basis? Seriously, 52 aisles is not grocery shopping, but rather it's your trip to the gym. In my neighbourhood, I have a number of grocery options within about 3~ish miles of my house, but I invariably end up using only two. Both stores are 15,000 or 18,000 square feet, which was about right during the 1980s, but is about half of today's standard. For most of my grocery needs, I am happy to visit the smaller stores as long as they are appropriately priced because I mostly use the peripheral aisles and I don't really want to walk a mile to buy a a couple of steaks, five pounds of potatoes, milk and a loaf of bread. And I really don't want to walk an extra 100 feet as I pass by clothing, dishes and other housewares. I just want to buy the ingredients to make supper and then to get the hell out of the store. Am I alone here? SJ The concept of Grocerant as the new Whole Foods is appealing and inviting. I certainly don’t think you are alone but I also think this board does not represent the average customer for any of these concepts. Besides there are no clothing isles in this type of store. It’s certainly not a small format but is all dedicated to food.

MAT and BBBY. Both are positions I’ve had for quite a while and dove in 2017. I still hold both of them.

The first sentence of that article reads "We live in an era of chaos." I'm all about writers getting the attention of their audience with an exciting intro, but that's a little too over-the-top. :-\ Indeed! Though the article is good at explaining current trends.

I think the future of grocery stores is like the Whole Foods store at Bryant Park in New York. This article is very good about explaining the future of food retailers. The rise of the Grocerant: http://www.therobinreport.com/grocerants/

Thinking this way is thinking within the current context and paradigm, not within the new one Seba talks about. 1) If gasoline is no longer necessary and there's no driver, then miles traveled won't be as expensive as they are today. 2) If his view of autonomous cars driving almost all of the time (less parking needed and almost full utilization) is correct, then rushing to the hospital or wherever you need won't be a problem either since there will always be a car available near you. I don't know if Seba is correct with the timeframe of his prediction, but I certainly see a world where people pay fraction ownership (ala Netjets) for hours/miles traveled in cars and a company selling that service and having an enormous fleet of autonomous EVs available for picking you up within a few minutes of your request. A lot of people don't own a car, at least in the US. Leasing is equivalent to renting, not owning! I think he is correct with his assessment of car ownership (in a world with full autonomous EVs it will decrease a lot). And I think he is also correct with his assessment that a lot of current parking space will be repurposed for better uses since those autonomous EVs will be used a lot more hours than current cars drived by humans. From the comments I infer some of you haven't listen to the full talk or read his paper. I think it's worth the time, most of his views make a lot of sense and in my view it's not an "if" question, but a "when" question. And in that he may certainly be wrong.

Great talk. This should be mandatory viewing for every investor!

1. Facebook. 2. Amazon. 3. Microsoft. 4. Apple. 5. Alphabet. That's the Order in which my life will be less miserable if I had to stop using them.

The table attached shows the trade deficit between the US and its major partners. It makes you wonder if president Trump is using his weakest rival to prepare the others for some concessions.

+14.5%. Berkshire was a good contributor to my positive performance since CMG and MAT are flat for me and BBBY and WFM a little down.

I want to share with you all, a recent interview (via e-mail) that I did for Gurufocus. They are doing it with many individual investors and I think everybody is being asked the same 25 questions. This is the link: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/467516/25-questions-with-manuel-salceda

I see you are a very disciplined reader! It took me a couple of days...

www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundOct14Web.pdf

Rebranded ING DIRECT? Got it! Thx.

Haven't heard about VOYA before! Could you elaborate?

More BRK and initiated a position in CMG.

-8.53% Losers according to its size within the portfolio were BRK, MAT, WFM, BBBY, IBM and DE. Winners according to its size within the portfolio were GOOG (sold), WTW (sold), WMK (sold) and FAST. Non movers WMT and IILG. Bad year!