undervalued

So comparing FRFHF with JEF for the past 10 years, I own JEF for the past 10 or so years and it has been a value trap for that long. When comparing the 10 year chart with FRFHF, I sees similar behavior. Parsad, I think you also follow JEF and they have been trying to transform it these past two years. I have not been adding to JEF because I don't want to sink new money to it although I am still patient in holding and so far it has been a pretty big mistake as far as opportunity cost.

For those of you who are still invested, how much of your portfolio are you betting on FNMA/FMCC related securities? Have you become more convinced of the end game will be positive or becoming negative?

Just wondering who is preparing for this scenario in the board. With tech companies flying higher and higher, I wonder what happen if China blocks Tesla or Apple from selling there. How likely is it to happen? I guess it's kind of guessing whether a pandemic was going to hit in 2020 in late 2019?

And now it's 100 bagger.

With the way current mortgages standards are, I'm not so sure that you can simply repay the forbearance and then be eligible for a refi. I read an article (I believe WSJ) talking about individuals who were unknowingly signed up for the forbearance program simply by calling their banks and asking about the details about the program. The article highlighted an individual who has made all of his monthly payments, but is ineligible to refinance because he was listed as "seeking forbearance" despite having made all of his mortgage payments on time. It seems even just asking about it might be enough to scare banks away from making the loan at this point in time. http://www.freddiemac.com/about/pdf/covid_19_forbearance_servicer_script.pdf Did I miss something relevant in this script to my post or the post before it? I don't think so. I just addressed that those actually in forbearance enjoy option to refi. I believe I read that same article. Basically banks are flagging everyone who calls asking about forbearance as high risk and treated them like they are going into default. This will make it harder for them to refinance.

List them here.. Like Spek mentioned in Visa thread. V

There is a WSJ article talking exactly this(also comparing the number to the flu), titled: The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News; Stanford scientist John Ioannidis finds himself under attack for questioning the prevailing wisdom about lockdowns. I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2 It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess ...and normalize with respect to the age. The median age of the passengers was 69. I believe all of the deaths were passengers. So, if you assume IFR of ~1.4% for that old-age population group, the IFR for the entire population would be much, much lower. Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2 passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred way later.

A few of them have threads in this forum, coincidence?

So far he has been raising cash and selling airlines and bank

you would ask risk groups to self identify and send them masks/latex gloves etc and ask them to shelter in place. you would not tell people who are not in a risk group to shelter in place. real easy, though beyond an epidemiologist How straight forward! Now we need to just think how these two groups interact. So glad we have a bunch of non-epidemiologists here throwing ideas left, right and center. Next let's all of us start commenting on how we can change brain surgery since we are at it. After the high risk group have been identified, please also add a bailout package for them until vaccine has been found. Easy peasy, recession solved.

1,941 deaths in a day exceeds average number of U.S. deaths from heart disease (~1700-1800) in a day. Tragic. Clearly aggressive action was necessary. Hopeful that the slowing in growth of cases leads to peak in mortality soon. these "covid" deaths of course are not purely covid deaths, but rather deaths arising from heart disease and many other life threatening conditions. you do realize that less than 2% of covid deaths can not be directly attributed to underlying conditions (including old age). so you are showing your abject ignorance to say that covid deaths exceed heart disease deaths when 98% of covid deaths are heart disease deaths etc. Someone missed our little gun wound to the head exercise a few posts back.

Yes, if there is a path of less resistance and easy way to solve this, why isn't it happening yet. Why wait when the result could be catastrophic? It seems that we're missing something.

That's going to crash the airlines even more. They both are the stronger out of the 4 big airlines.

For the record, I never treated him poorly and treated him equally as everyone else :P

Congress is the ultimate wild card. They can go from wiping all current shareholders with no recourse to forcing Treasury to write off the seniors and give FnF oodles of money. For the record, I don't want them getting involved with FnF at all unless it's only some sort of limited fund to cover the wave of payments due to MBS investors that won't be offset by revenue due to the forbearances allowed by the CARES Act. That said, going to the Congress or the Fed is a last resort, which seems clear to me from what Calabria said. If it does end up becoming necessary then there is downside for current shareholders. I'm not nearly so scared of the Fed acting because I don't think they have the power to wipe shareholders out. I also don't fear receivership at the moment. If FnF were to exhaust all of their capital and require a draw from Treasury (which, as Tim Howard recently pointed out, would be mitigated by the protection afforded by CRTs and FnF's own income), Calabria could probably technically impose receivership. However, that would immediately be challenged per HERA from at least a dozen people/institutions. As long as losses do not exceed $150B, those challengers can argue that if the NWS had not happened, FnF would have $150B of capital right now (though the seniors would still exist) and would have never lost enough money to allow Calabria to legally trigger receivership. I am also trying to think if there is a better time to talk to Treasury about discuss about eliminating the SPS and raise capital for FnF. You know this lockdown is probably at least another 2 months as Fauci thinks it's not even half time for the pandemic (https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-coronavirus-u-s-battle-coach-k-1495918). When the wreck comes, it's going to be very swift.

I've made a point to listen for that. In all 3 interviews/articles in the past 10 days he has said "Congress" or "Fed" and hasn't mentioned "Treasury." He is making a point by excluding them as even a possibility. I think the honor system is a huge risk. Saying that, it's not a free lunch as it's added to the principal. Some might take advantage to spend the money today though, if they want to, or may use it as a cushion for another rainy day. I think take-up will be high, unfortunately. Same here. I don't see a reason why the take-up rate won't approach 100%. There is no downside for any individual to take the forbearance. FnF have an extra $250B to draw from Treasury if worse comes to worse. The companies will survive. Shareholders are in a much more precarious position, with only $23B worth of capital cushion. We survived the last draw from Treasury in Q1 2018, but that was with Watt in charge. I don't know if Calabria would feel compelled to wipe out shareholders in the event of a draw from Treasury. Some clarity on this is sorely needed. If anyone knows a journalist who could ask him this, please reach out. This is also why I believe Treasury's backstop will survive recap and release, notwithstanding Trump's insistence on an "explicit" and paid-for backstop. I put "explicit" in quotes because it's not the explicit MBS guarantee that the Trump administration wants, but instead it's just for FnF. If they go to Congress instead of Treasure, isn't that already a big signal that they won't be removing the NWS? If they (Calabria and Treasure) have possible solution on increasing capital, why would they go to Congress first instead of solving the issue themselves? Maybe the plan that Calabria executing is different than what we thought it will be? Just trying to see if we can find a good reason to abandon ship before all of this sinks (opposite of backing the truck).

Simple. 1. Everyone in these countries wore masks, and I mean EVERYONE -- the best form of social distancing that actually works. + 2. testing + 3. due to SARS they had a system in place + 4. pro-science functioning governments. What about the USA? 1. nope. 2. only starting 3. had a system but it was ignored and the responsible team fired 4. None of that. Goodluck. They also took this threat seriously and therefore faster response time shutdown or mass testing.

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively! M. Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone. The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it. False comparison. A bullet through head will kill 100% of time, immediately. Covid-19 doesnt kill 99%+ and definitely not immediately. So you cannot assign a 80 year cancer patient to Covid automatically. At least they should check for lungs and breathing problems etc. My understanding is a whole lot of times old and sick die of "infections" but is reported to be dead of cancer/stroke, and resultant complications. Not infection (flu, bacteria etc). Type II diabetes is a good example of how silly it is to haggle about the exact cause of death when it is clear that a disease is clearly a major factor in contributing towards death. Most patients with severe type II diabetes die of other causes that are essentially a result of secondary damage from the disease (infections that do not respond to antibiotics very well, kidney failure, more cardiovascular complications than otherwise, etc). Clearly Covid seems to accelerate the underlying pre-existing conditions towards death, in particular cardio-vascular and any lung related pre-existing condition is what we know so far. I guess this quick exercise quickly explain why it's hard to categorize death rates. No doctor is going to spend time on a cold body to find out what exactly the cause of death especially when you have bodies piling up.

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively! M. Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone. The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/03/graying-america.html I am going to use the 77mil number for people currently age 65 or older. Based on the model by Lipsitch, 40 to 70% people will get it (https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/). So if 40% (best case scenario) of the 65 yrs old population get coronavirus, then if we use death rate of 15% - we get to about 4.62 million people who will die. Currently we're no where close to that.

About 10% cash at this time, don’t really trade in and out of stocks. I am waiting for Buffett to take action since he is usually very good at timing bottom in a downturn. I have been doing small purchases but it doesn’t average down much.

I wonder if cases are spiking high in Italy because the way they greet each other there?

I am not optimistic the way Trump has responded to Coronavirus. We're still not testing enough, much much less and accurate than South Korea do. W/o those tests, how can you be sure that you coworker, family do not have it? It will create distrust. I am guessing we'll be worse next month than today.

I know a lot of people in the US has high blood pressure. I think the death rate for people with this condition is greater than 50%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/top-virus-doctor-says-high-blood-pressure-is-major-death-risk

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? I know that the internet does not convey tone well, so please believe me when I say that I mean this in the most sincere, non-offense way - I think you should find another line of work outside of the healthcare industry. If your default response whenever someone is ill with an unknown illness or an illness in which there is no cure is to suggest that there's nothing to do, then perhaps trying to help those in need of help is your calling. Lol I agree with the sentiment that the old and immunocompromised are the worst affected by this virus, and that many of them will die from this, and that's reality. There is no treatment, is that hard to understand? orthopa, I'm sure you're doing great work in the healthcare industry :) P.s., I am a doctor To be able to die peacefully will be nice in that case w/o accruing a lot of debt for survivors. Ps., I am NOT a doctor nor a healthcare worker.