bizaro86

I think if you're not a w2 type employee you probably need a bigger cash buffer than w2 types. Contractors are often the first cuts in big organizations, and self employment is intrinsically more exposed to macro. Eg I own a travel business - March 2020 I had negative cash flow approx equal to 1 years income as things shut down. Obviously that's an extreme case, but even the "retired living off investments" types are at least as exposed to macro as the average w2. Isnt great to sell during a downturn, so makes sense to keep a cash buffer for living expenses.

I bought the Jan 2024s ($20 strike) when two cities made his original post. They've ~tripled. Luckily I sold >90% of the position for an average ~30% gain before the rip. Should help me stay humble in the future. Binary stuff like this I think it makes sense to go way out of the money because you get a better return if it really works and it's probably a zero otherwise anyway. And then the other big lesson is to let the winners run...

Congrats Gregmal! Hopefully 1000 of your new neighbours buy this year as well!

Also, it isn't obvious to me these will be qualified investments for a TFSA/RRSP. I've paid penalty tax on holding CVRs in my RRSP in the past. If they put it in your account as a security and it doesn't trade on an exchange, it isn't an allowable investment. If that happens, I recommend not ignoring the situation (which is what I did) and transferring the CVR to a non-reg account at some deemed value (which is what I did eventually).

I sold some naked calls on BBBY today. Nothing extreme size wise, and they're well OTM. I think this short squeeze gets capped off because they'll issue ATM shares into it as soon as they are able, which will keep boosting supply of shares. It's a bit of a hedge on my position in the unsecured (which is underwater). Ideally they take in enough cash on the ATM that they make the upcoming coupon payment without filing. Also @TwoCitiesCapitalthanks for the note on SI. I followed you into that one - so far so good, obviously.

Mortgages in Alberta are only non-recourse if they don't have mortgage insurance, which requires 20% down.

This is getting OT for this thread, but did you have to fill out the paperwork to register your shares/not object to the plan in order to receive those warrants, or did they just appear?

Indeed. I'm somewhat annoyed at myself for having missed it, as UNTC common was my largest position after the bankruptcy (and then by far my largest position as it outperformed). I knew those warrants were out there and checked for them occasionally - I should have been more systematic about monitoring for that.

Interactive Brokers has form you can fill out to sell them valueless securities for the same price as the commission. Not sure how long it takes though. I'm sure other brokers would have something similar.

Seems like plug in hybrids- which are generally battery EVs with a gasoline generator in them, would be ideal for this application.

Fair enough, but on the other hand I made a late payment on one of my utility bills this year. I was on vacation and forgot to pay it. The vacation cost like 5 years worth of my electricity bills, and I'm still not in any way in need of "ENERGY JUSTICE!!!!"

But if you hire the right consultants, they can help you select which fund-of-funds is likely to best meet your objectives!

As a similar aside, I'd love a pair of securities where 1 side went up by 100% and one side went down by 100% for tax efficiency reasons. Harvest a capital loss on the down side, and donate the appreciated side to charity in place or my normal giving (which doesn't attract cap gains tax in Canada).

I got a pretty grumpy letter from IBKR compliance when I traded between two accounts I control there. It wasn't anything nefarious for taxes or painting the tape - I needed to raise cash in my non-reg to withdraw but wanted to keep the position so I traded it over to my reg where I had excess cash. In retrospect I should have used something more liquid (this was low volume option position) where both trades would have been with another counterparty. If you want to pursue this, I'd use non-identical securities. Ie buy a $55 call in one account and sell a $57.50 call in the other or something like that. Or buy covered calls in one and sell naked puts in the other, equivalent but not identical.

LYLT -spinoff, most value is the Air Miles loyalty program in Canada. Launched around $30, down to $2.50 or so. Lost a big partner almost right away, had cost overruns, and their other business (grocery promotions in Eastern Europe/Middle East) got killed by inflation/war in Ukraine). P/S is a small fraction. Quite a bit of debt that the former parent put in a US holdco, which makes it non-deductible for Canadian taxes. They have $600MM in trust to cover future air miles redemptions and just renewed contracts with some of their largest partners (other than the big grocery chain who quit). Easily could be BK or 10x.

In fact, you can keep filling them to any pressure you want. Of course, eventually something would fracture under the stress... if that happens the storage would be wrecked forever. My engineer brain explodes when people use the safety factor on purpose for economic reasons.

Sorry, was overly brief. I just meant that with interest rates coming up massively and their very straightforward guidance you could calculate the amount net interest income was going to increase for the most recent quarter. It was quite meaningful, and the multiple on their non-zirp earnings was (imo) too low. The catalyst was them reporting those earnings so it starts to screen on them vs just being estimates. Part of it for me is just taking leverage off.

I sold all my IBKR calls over the last few trading days. I had switched my long position into a mix of ITM and OTM calls. Most of the were Jan 2023 expiry so not much leverage left, and the ITM ones are now very far ITM. Sold the calls and put the proceeds back into IBKR common. I think it's still decently priced and the a great business that I want to hold long term. But it doesn't have the obvious extreme cheapness with a near term catalyst that it did even a few months ago.

I agree the most successful of the colorful folks tend be those who can get people to truly believe in the story they are selling - and to put their money toward it. In o&g the colorful types have the best stories, but their investors don't have the best experience. Murray Edwards left Penn West because he didn't want them to convert to an income trust on 2005. The subsequent management were finance types who ended up with a big accounting scandal and destroying tons of value (as you know). The guys who sweat the assets (but don't cook the books) are the ones you want.

And all those arctic assets plus $3 will get you a cup of coffee now. Investors do and have done better with the green eyeshade types (eg Murray Edwards) than the charismatic wildcatters (who almost inevitably end up having debt issues in a downturn, which is what happened to Gallagher's Dome) But hey, CNQ has most of the office space in Dome Tower now on a cheap lease. I understand from someone who knows that they were offered to have the building name changed but declined because they didn't want to pay for the cost of replacing the signage. I invest for money more than romantic stories. Different strokes.

I've had a few people reach out about this, wanting to help. It took me awhile to get things sorted, as they needed bank accounts in Canada and gofundme has stricter verification for Ukraine related things. Anyway, they are settled with a host family now and looking for work, but need a vehicle to be able get to a workplace from where they are staying. The cost of a used vehicle plus insurance (for those without a Canadian driving record) is outside their means so I've started a gofundme for them. Absolutely no pressure (and if not allowed please remove) but if anyone wants to contribute you can do so here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/viktor-and-irena? Any help would be appreciated.

I don't think big increases to Canadian exports are likely. Short cycle conventional drilling is going strong, but without new oil sands projects/expansions getting sanctioned you won't see meaningful production growth from Canada, at least not at the scale that could impact global prices. And that hasn't started happening- the firms that could do it are focused on debt paydown/capital returns.

I own rentals in Calgary, where rents declined fairly significantly between roughly 2015-2020, mostly because of low oil prices hurting the local economy. Generally tenants asked for lower rents on renewal - I'd lower it for good tenants to keep them. Turnover was higher and of course I'd advertise at a lower price as otherwise you couldn't get anyone. It's pretty organic - some people won't advertise at a lower price and their places sit empty until they get the message the market is sending them.

Not to take this thread too far off topic, but the downside on Atco if the non-firm deal gets pulled is probably pretty significant at this point. Given the change in markets since the deal was announced it probably drops further than the pre-deal price. I think this is the last bump, and Atco shareholders should probably take it and re-invest.

Stelco to tender. The tender is open for like 50% of the firm and the spread is ~2%. Seems obvious for any available registered/retirement funds (tax considerations aren't great for non-reg)