doughishere

I also want to stress these guys/gals are only mortals... I tend to think of them as super heroes.... That they pull rabbits out of their hats.....They're not... They just do what they love to do.....they ravenously search for opertunity....they go the extra mile and are extremely thoughtful..,.thats not a super talent they just devlope it and Operate under the maximum of adding value....that everyone can share in the benefit from making these "investments"...it's really others that shut down their minds and are not receptive to a better at of doing things.....they aren't these monsters that take "huge" positions....now I'm editoralizing

Spelling is bad I'm on my phone....notes are my own I have paraphrased marks so it's really my take away...blah blah blah blah

I don't think there's any great secret with these value guys....the just operate in a world whe people say "it can't be done" yet they do it all the time with hard work and minimize their reliance on luck. They operate on the attitude that "it can be done"...all the guys who spoke talked about cranking out home runs...some of them talked about theirs failures but general consensus was that they just keep their ear to the ground and with a little hard work Mak some good bets None of these guys/gals talked about the money....they just enjoy what they do. One of them was an old Ben graham student...literally took classes with by....he still value invests...he doesn't need the money...he stressed "adding value" to the world.

I was fortunate enough to attend a conference where Howard Marks the other day here are my notes from it. Marks Investment is best thought of as an exercise in judgement. Difficult to quantify. Probabilistic at best. Can't be reduced to a number. But you can have standards. Judgement is the only way to know you've had too much risk. Sizing is important. No specific rule and is not the same for everyone. Size your capital to benefit from future events. You need to have you own sense. The emh reflects the average opinion. You have to think different but also have to be smarter. Can't do it all the time can't do it in great numbers......second level thinking can't really be taught. John Kenneth goberath...read his shit. HMs hero. When asset prices don't fully reflect reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Three decision stocks.....buy,sell,buy something else. Can't keep making great decisions.... Why is it hard to tell yourself to sell.....all the days over a great 20year stock. We don't know where we're going but we do know where we are. We don't know about future markets but it's safe to make some generalizations about where we go America has 70yeara of great growth has been phenomenal and should not be expected to continue. Geopolitical The advent of credit is something really new. Marks couldn't spend money he didn't have....Carolla sees it as a right. Increasing use of credit...low growth can be turned to high growth.... No delayed gratification...reliance on high growth in China..... Growth will be there just more modest. Inflation...70s no one could stop it now we don't know how to stop it. Lot of uncertainty.... Sky high yields on stocks vs bonds...especially in history 04-07 can easily be done again....fuck it what's wrong with buying ccc bonds No raving bulls out there...no one is very excited. People are not thinking bullish but they are acting/behaving bullish in 0% rates and that's what makes it so difficult... 7/10 on riskiness...7th inning...but could take a long time...not o boom in economy...many have piled up cash and not levered up....closer to the end of the game than the beginning but could take a long time...or not :p 32x to 12x bank leverage then vs now....we don't have rush of a crash right now....no asset bubble. What to buy where the merits are not fully reflected in the prices. Harder to beat he market today..."unloved".....screen for optimism....where is the reality low....today? .....oil scares the shit out if everything me today....When things go down people stay away...Buffett and hamburgers.prices that go down are not a reason to buy but a place to start listening looking. Asset that can't produce cash can't be valued. Can't price oil its relative to coal or natty gas. Useable commodities can be quantified. 1999 oil is low compared to today. Gatta have a starting point.No one knows the price of oil is high or low. We know what we don't know. We act based on our views of the future. Need a forecast and an estimate of the probability your right....some of your views are better and there a very differ my ranges of outcomes. Respect for uncertainty. Know what you don't know. Not everything that can be counted counts -Einstein Q/A Learn nothing from good times. Experience is what you got when you didn't get what you want.. Learn from history. What repeated is human behaviors and emotion. "I think I've grown up and I think I'm still learning. Have to keep you're eyes open." You have some ideas and you have to build your own philosophy...world is always changing and you have to keep adapting Read read read and what's the importances and significance of that I went though. There no one right way. Buffett is emblematic..... What you can know and can't know...and stay away from what you don't know. Find value in the here and now and You can loose money in high assets and make money in low assets... I write memos things I say just come out as I think about them..... Have to do the probabilities at the time you made the decision...can't go back and re-do them.but you can Learn from mistakes

I'm pretty maxed out

I think you work there Luke....just kidding I have no reason for that.

Bethany is amazing. Here's an article on the SEC she just wrote. Does the SEC Inflate their numbers http://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-the-sec-inflate-its-numbers-165803420.html?soc_src=mediacontentsharebuttons&soc_trk=tw

We should be getting some formal arguments in the Deleware case tonight, no?

In all of its 121 page glory. This is a really good read if you have the time. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/joseph.pagliari/files/IS/GGPCaseStudy.pdf

Companies raise prices for lots of reasons. Economists that are hired by BODs to come in and consult on setting prices. On everything from Ipods to cereal, Drugs to toothpaste. The list goes on and on. There's a lot of though put into it.

makes it hard for prosecutors to go after unfair use of information by professional investors. Newman, after all, didn't involve relatives, buddies or cronies. It involved hedge fund managers using information that they got from their analysts, who got it from other analysts, who got it from company employees with whom they had more or less professional relationships. The prosecutors' theory in Newman was that, if you are a professional investor, and you have really good nonpublic information about a company's finances, then that alone means that you are guilty of a crime. If you have good information, and no one else has it, then trading on it is a crime, even if you have no idea where it comes from.

Ok my title was a very poor choice of words...sorry

Justices Aren't Interested in Insider Trading Case Via Matt Levine http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-05/justices-aren-t-interested-in-insider-trading-case

Via Mark Cuban. http://blogmaverick.com/2013/10/26/that-awkward-moment-on-the-witness-stand-when-the-sec-asks-me-about-the-lakers-and-i-get-to-quote-randy-galloway/ Cuban's struggle against the SEC is pretty interesting if you're into that sort of thing. It's well documented on his blog...at least his side of the story. If this is dumb shit and you don't want me cluttering the page let me know...it might be against the tos but I just try to read everything I can get my hands on and if it's interesting I try to share it or try to get some conversation started....at least in this General Catergory

I kinda admire that also.....especially cuz i feel like he does the work necessary to get it done. I think the Jordan Quote I mention in the last post kinda sums up how I feel at least about VRX....even if it does truely go south and he has to take a loss on it. If Pershing called(and they wont), Said hey doughishere how do you feel about working with us for rent/necessities only...id fly out tomorrow. Shit. I'd even be willing to pay for the ticket myself. With the caveat Pershing do what they do with out being immoral. I think theres a pretty good case for saying that they are not immoral, but you know i just want to hedge my bets on anything nice i say about them. ;)

@ sampr01, I'm not specifically trying to go after members of the board here....more of the general public, especially those in significant roles as journalists and such not. I guess thats always been happening but it just seems like a...I dont want to say larger.....but none the less an injustice. I just think that its so easy to rail on him for the wrong reasons. As Michael Jordan said "I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can't accept not trying." If you're like Citron and do the work(at least it seams like they have done some quality thinking) and have disagreeing opinions than thats fine, He/she/they raise some important questions. I can have respect for that. I cant have respect for people who make up their minds then parade it around without trying dig into what actually being done. Basically, I cant stand the gossip. Ohh well...if it wasn't for them I;d be out of business.

I think the "its best to wait for more fallout" is a precarious argument to begin with.....hindsight is always 20/20. And hes not the first value investor to catch the falling knife. I'm willing to bet even at one time WEB had that happen...Shit...even he says he held on to the hopes of BRK textile business will suddenly working for him.....but we dont lambaste WEB for that (ANYMORE). By that logic im willing to bet that you would argued that hes an idiot if the position claimed 20% a week after he didnt buy. * *Not trying to be mean but it think its a "thought expriment" worthy of consideration

How do you have a conversation with people who are un-willing to learn? I dont think you can attribute the PR problem completely to Bill. Ive laid out the thesis for my friends, some of which work in the financial industry as traders and market makers and are bright/successful individuals. Their own jaded opinions are keeping them back from making a killer trade. They missed because they were unwilling to learn. The only thing stopping this is their unwillingness to learn (ive heard school teachers say this about their students)? The rage scares the shit out of me. My advise to Bill would be to tell him to go pick a beach somewhere, bring your wife and drink pina colada for the rest of your days.

Because I had to add my 2 cents. Is it wrong for me to reserve my judgment on Bill Ackman? I get it he's from HBS he's brash young cocky and acts like he's a lot smarter than everyone else. Hes from "money" who is the king of the hill in the hedge fund business (at least now, there will be others) but seriously it's almost as if we all have to chime in on VRX(Guilty as charged) and revel in the "crashing" of his position. Quite honestly, it seems to me that a lot of the "boo-ing" is coming from the cheap seats....and it's not just here it's all over. Every article I read is written to say how bad and how scummy he is(or at least it imply that, but maybe i read too much into them). I just watched a PSH thing on them making grants to cancer...but that's never discussed. Dare I say there's a tinge of jealously that he's trying to make the world better in his own way. Or maybe everyone is so jaded from their own lack of success in the markets it's good to see the biggest guy out their fail? I don't see Sorkin [insert journalist here] out there writing checks to Doctors who are trying to cure cancer. How can you say he's a snake oil sales man when you don't don't do the work or at least try and connect the dots that he's laid out. At least Citron has some valid arguments. Shit there was some fund that did the same thing in releasing a short case against GGP when it was in bankruptcy. I remember reading the report thinking this other guy is gonna get crushed. He doesn't even know what hes up against. Commanders In the Army talk about various times in history when armies getting routed because they have bad Intel....all the time. I went in on GGP a few years ago and right now it's paying for business school. I wouldn't be where I am right now if I didn't read his presentations and followed his work. I wouldn't be an value investor if he didn't "teach" me the beginnings of what to look for. He gets things wrong but that's the nature of the business. Thats life. I just don't get the outrage. We don't rage against Seth Klarman or Marty Whitman or Tepper or [insert Top Value Guy Here]. If theres one thing this has taught me it's to keep your opinions and positions to yourself because if you speak up and talk your position then you have everyone, who's small time(dare I say) commenting when all they really know is some flashy news article. Shit....Michael Burry said this when he was up against his own investors on Subprime mortgages....we all know how well that turned out. The guys a god damned hero now complete with his own fucking movie. 500 years ago, no one believed Copernicus when he said the world was not the center of the universe. I'm not saying this apply to Bill exactly, after all he may be wrong at least on this account, but still I gatta think that maybe just maybe Bill has done the work and seen the retrograde of the other planets in or solar system and realized that somethings not exactly right with popular opinion.

I think most people dont see the cost rise because its hidden behind the company. I'm willing to bet that the bods and ceos are seeing a dramatic rise in rates. I bet its more epidemic than just from the employee level. I have heard of small business(first hand accounts from their owners) in the area where i live tell their employees that they can no longer afford insurance and that the employees are on their own. This is why i started this thread....to get the people talking.

Any one notice huge jumps in their Health Insurance Premiums. My "old" insurance wants $600 every 2 months now instead of the $250 I paid for the same last year. Anyone have any more insight. Comments? Anyone seeing the same trends?

This is good... http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Fairholme/13-465-0254.pdf

Hot off the press from Jon. http://twitdoc.com/view.asp?id=232311&sid=4Z93&ext=PDF&lcl=Study-of-the-Recapitalization-of-Fannie-Mae-and-Freddie-Mac-R-Shapiro-E-Kamarck-3-.pdf&usr=JonAPrior&doc=288807631&key=key-68ZDj6LZvx33YJdIa6Jp

It is pretty inspiring.