doughishere

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/hedge-fund-weeding-out-call-too-early-howard-marks/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5652817204d30159c3bc6009&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter Marks said he made the call in 2004 in writing. Anyone know the article or memo? I love how thoughtfull he is before he speaks.....one day perhaps.

I have not....i opened it up for a minute but got hooked on another book....now its in storage...blah blah. Its on the list. I did however watch the Experimenter last night...very good movie based on the Milgram Experiments.

I'm surprised no one else is seeing the same thing.

This game is all the other strategy games on crack. It has a decent learning curve that drives most players away. Almost drove me away.... In the first 1/3 to 1/2 of the game it really favors the player that is on the soviets, so the american side is basically playing to survive. in the later half if the soviets dont close it out fast then the americans really gain steam. Nothing like forcing your opponent to launch nukes there by winning the game...first to launch nukes looses. there is nothing worse than drawing a sh*t hand that just completely helps your opponent...at this point your just trying to minimize your downside.

cheers!

I play Twilight Struggle regularly. 1 a monthish. Rules: http://www.gmtgames.com/nnts/TS_Rules-2015.pdf Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_Struggle 538.com: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/designing-the-best-board-game-on-the-planet/

There was recently a Valuewalk article where Whitney Tilson was discussing bill ackman and valeant. Basically there was a quote where he said buffett is the best one at marriageing humility and arrogance. Anyone know what im talking about?

+1 Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on developments as they come. Thanks for sharing! Yeah man. Welcome to the fight.

Just google like "Chicago Booth GGP" or something like that... There was a really cool study on Marque Night Club in NYC done by students at HBS. Just google "Marque night club HBS" or something like that. It didn't go into the depth like the GGP one but was fun to read. That was actually a really light read so there wasn't much value other than reading about how shitty the Night Club business is. Entertaining would be the way to describe it. Someone on this site compiled a few together in a website not too long ago. Strangely I haven't seen too many in depth case studies on things that go wrong...guess people don't like to talk about their failures..might be a suggestion for a place to look for some of you b school students for your projects.

Yeah sold out of all of AIG except warrants and BAC. Wonder if this is due more to redemption's or he thinks they have reached full value. Hard to think these reached full value if rates do eventually rise. Maybe the readthough is that he believes rates wont rise any time soon. I dont think many shareholders are going to love that SHLD is his biggest position. That position hasnt worked out for a long time and unless your really patient money I can see some getting sick of waiting. At least he didn't buy VRX... ;D ;D ;D Bruce has done a few of deals with Ackman....im sure hes well aware of the situation. I wouldn't be surprised if hes at least looked at it.

Just Came in an email. We are pleased to announce that The Fairholme Allocation Fund (FAAFX) will re-open to new investors effective Wednesday, November 18, 2015. The November 17, 2015, press release, which can be found by visiting http://fairholmefunds.com/press-releases, describes the re-opening of the Fund in further detail. The Manager reserves the right to change or modify the recommencement or suspension in the future. Sincerely, Fairholme Funds, Inc. The Funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses should be considered carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Funds, and it may be obtained by calling Shareholder Services at 1-866-202-2263 or visiting our website www.fairholmefunds.com. Read it carefully before investing. Fairholme Funds, Inc.

The call can be listened to again via the International number. For some reason the USA number didnt work. Toll-Free Replay: USA: (800) 230-1059 Intl: (320) 365-3844 Access Code: 373902 Edit: Theres a lot in here worth listening to. I cant type fast enough and its difficult to rewind.

121 pages is the synopsis. It's a "successful" bankruptcy case for investors. I think it was one of Ackmans presentations where he compared ggp to Budget Rent a Car...or hertz or something...I forget. But I think it really lays out a case for quality businesses that have temporary setbacks....fixable problems...I think ggp may be the American Express of Ackmans career. There's a lot of skepticism about activist investment....when you tell people they might be wrong about something it's a tough pill to swollow.

An oldie but a goodie. http://www.rbcpa.com/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf

Experience is what you get when you don't get what you want

https://hbr.org/2015/11/why-organizations-dont-learn?utm_campaign=harvardbiz&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

I just operate on the premiss that "I can learn something from every one all the time" you operate on the premis that "you know everything all the time" ....I just try to limit my ignorance.

One last thought. What really struck me was when Mr. Marks said "Conceptual Inefficiencies." The older and older I get the more and more that I feel that this is the key to life. This is what seperates the WEBs from other investors. This is what seperates Tom Brady from defenses. Tom Brady sees the inenifficency in the defenders coverage and exploits that by throwing a pass. Sometimes he judges it wrong but he gets it right more often than not. I sit here at the United Center, 300 level everything else is for the fancy people, and all I see is #88 or #19 just looking for Inefficiencies in Calgarys defense. They look for "Conceptual Inefficiencies" in defense and exploit them. To me that's adaptation. That's some Darwin shit. For some reason it's dirty in investments..."I think you're wrong, here's why..." People hate being told that they can think better...I've had professors tell me this....maybe they are trying to teach me. That's how I operate...is hard I had some blonde tell me I'm an ass hole for taking advantage of people the other day but that's what #88 and #19 do. I

Mark Cuban talks about going the extra mile, it's less crowded, these guys/gals go that extra few miles when researching

More notes: Try and figure out what percentage is retail as they don't do the work and usually voter with management so this is a hindrance to activists Board members generally don't get a chance to sit down into the operations of the businesses. They have other things, can't spend the time learning about the business. They just accept what management kinda sells. Conceptual inefficiencies. Exposed to the things we have an opinion about. Circle of competence. Exploitable anomalies...what is difference from what the world expects What's the expectation. What's imbedded in the price. Value investing does better I'm a more skeptical environment. Activism in the press creates distrust.....Sparta vs Athens.

One of th books recommended, not by Marks was history of the peloponnesian war by thucydides where Thucydides try's to analyze the breakdown between Sparta and Athens. I'll be honest I tried to read it a number of years ago as a student...ill have to go back...but the older I get the more I think the breakdown in communication is disasterly....this happens all the time n all aspects of life... These guys/gals are kinda like monks...very thoughtful....I think it was Buffett who said to be a "learning machine"....that's all they do.

They adapt to changing environments really well. Something I think people are very good at and at the same time very bad at. The only absolute that I think they could agree with is that there are no absolutes. Now I'm just saying my thoughts.

They stress finding the right people...that have the right mentality. Most of these are my takeaways...I want to stress this

One of the guys only looks at his email and computer for the first hour of the day...stays away from as much as he can....I think I remember him saying he doesn't read the papers...or tries not toas much as he can