sleepydragon

Scott Bensset’s financial disclosure showed he’s shorting yuan and jpy, and long bitcoin and spy. In IBKR, you can do a spot fx trade of selling JPY and get USD back. The JPY will be a margin loan with interest rate of 1.5%, and the USD can early 4.x+%. I am thinking if my account is currently leveraged and use margin, won’t it be a good idea to use this trade to make my USD margin balance become 0, and I in effect borrowing in JPY ? I wonder this is doable (if ibkr will require me to keep positive USD balance as collateral for the fx trade). In addition, i could also short CNH but the interest rate is much higher. Maybe I can use futures but will have to roll it every 3 months which are expensive. Wonder anyone here is doing these kind of trade?

Maybe not as high as ackman wished, but if treasury decide to wipe out commons, he’s argument is it will make the company’s valuation lower, and treasury will get a bigger portion of a smaller pie. Bessett has said in one of his interviews, that his dad wiped out his family’s fortune, so he wants to be good to middle class . I dont think he and trump will wipe out commons — many are trump supporters — look at TikTok. I also think Pulte has bones with mortgage people— he once said on cnbc higher mortgage costs is bad for existing house sales but good for new house builders like Pulte. For budget perspective, this is a lot of money to balance the budget. It’s a big cake that trump wont want to pass down to the next administration.

watching a few video clips on YouTube about Bill Pluto. This guy is 30 years old and is fairly active in politics. This is not a guy who's going to sit around and do nothing. He's going to do something big to make a name for himself.

De-facto is what MBS investors/blackrock want, but basically will never happen. Congress is not really motivated to pass a law for that. However, a motivated administration can charge ahead without new laws and providing a vague guarantee.

Yes, you are right commons have little protection, but Bill Ackman’s thesis is that Treasury can get more money from the market if commons are not wiped out. It’s kinda of like in 2008, how the govt bailed out banks. The govt has huge incentives to maximize profits .

spry and lmt

It seems everyone will benefit from this. 300 billions to fund the US gov and tax cut. There’s really not much incentive of not doing it. It a matter of how to cut the pie so everyone is happy with the piece they get— that’s the harder part and that’s why Bessent is keeping his mouth shut on this.

Also, even though commons were purely speculation, the involvement of Bill Ackman has changed that. Being an activist, he’s pushing this issue to be highly unpopular for the US treasury to wipe out common shareholders, most of them trump supporters— TikTok is an example .

there might be a scenario the preferred holders can convert to commons, and the commons’s price could be too high making that less attractive. The conversion will be optional though. another scenario is trump is too busy doing other stuffs first and later some sort of crisis hit and he will again never have time to get this done.

definitely speculation.. And my wife threatened divorcing me after I laughted and brush aside her suggestions to buy pltr, so this time i am not taking any chances. It’s her IRA anyway..

Bought it because wife said so, after missing out on her previous recommendations of amzn , tesla and most recently pltr (at $20) She says reddit is interesting because a lot of people talk about consumer products there (i think she is referring to hermes bags), seems sticky to many. Iike the xiaohongshu in china i also has a friend who know the coo, and says she is a workaholic

gral, rddt, ptlr

tdw, nbis, siri

“ Berkshire Hathaway Energy did not make Abel available for an interview or comment for this story, though Buffett did respond to an email from Fortune: “I couldn’t feel better about Greg,” he said. “But I’m just not doing interviews anymore. At 94, bridge isn’t the only activity that’s slowed down for me. I’m still having a lot of fun and am able to do a few things reasonably well. But other activities have been eliminated or greatly minimized.” ” maybe why Brk down today?

no BF?

that’s not what I concluded from reading this story. Howie is a “do-er”. Takes initiatives and get things done. Who else you know traveled to a war zone a dozen times. He’s compassionate and full of passion, and is responsible.

Caci, BAH, LMT got killed by doge recently

Nobody talking about FNMA.. already up 49% in 2025

the preferred could worth More than par too if they converted into new equity. i bought some commons, to “hedge” the upside if common is wiped out, my gains on the perferred will more than cover my entire common position.

Fannie and Freddie Stocks Surge on Hope for End to U.S. Control. It Won’t Be Easy. https://www.barrons.com/articles/fannie-mae-stock-freddie-mac-fnma-privatization-db92f622?st=Gjrmu3

I didnt find any article from barrons on SOC though

this was many years ago , it was a small company that owned a lot of lands in texas and they found oils

this was many years ago , it was a small company that owned a lot of lands in texas and they found oils

According to Li Lu, when Munger is 99 years old, he found an idea reading Barron’s and bought a stock that everyone hated and politically incorrect to buy, and the stock has doubled. Any guess what it could be?

My personal feeling is Ackman is doing all these to rally more retail shareholders to join his camp, and using this to push the administration for a better deal for common shareholders. On one hand this might work, on the other hand he is doing this because he must have figured he need to do something like this because there’s a real chance his commons will be wiped out.