gjangal

Some more companies that might be good compounders with no or high PE’s FTNT - tailwinds in the network security space, market growing nicely. Company is also taking share. Founder owned EPAM - will grow 20% pa for some time to come. Founder owned SPLK,ESTC - Growing end markets , will grow for some time to come. Founder owned WDAY - Although HCM market maybe slowing , they are getting into enterprise financial management SAAS . It’s a huge market and growing. Aneel Bhusri and Dave duffield have done a great job so far and are conservative with guidance. NOW - same as above , growing end market but valuations are high, even adjusting for growth and margins TTD - They have customer. concentration risks but have long runway SQ/SHOP and WIX to a lesser extent - Long runways DG - Best of breed dollar store, will be around for a long time to come

TEAM, TTD , FTNT - Very long growth runways for years to come. Valuations maybe stretched for TEAM but opportunity size is big for all these 3 stocks

ESTC 13.7 EV/S . Gross margins in the 70s. Interesting use cases. Can go to a 1B usd in revenue in the next few years if they maintain this growth

maybe he doesn’t own any 13F eligible securities , list is published every quarter by the SeC . Companies like TCEHY aren’t on that list

Making cvs + wba a 8-9% position . They both own > 40% of a consolidated market. Valuations look dirt cheap. Downside seems limited. If amazon’s pillpack and haven ventures don’t work out to the scale expected, these stocks will be rerated Amzn if serious about insurance and pharmacy may need store fronts similar to groceries. WBA could be a buyout candidate in that scenario as it not not playing the vertically integration game

ADBE, DG and UNH. Not exactly cheap but they are just good companies to have for the long term. Will add more if any dips happen

Sold some EPAM to bring down position size. Sold TCEHY and PLCE

One way to play this for fun is to put some play money and participate in a mania. You never know when it ends and you don’t know if it’s 1998 or 2000.

Zoom, an enterprise video conferencing software going ipo at 9b . 27 times price to sales, growing at 100%. There are several competitors in the market. Valuations looks crazy , but let’s say they grow recurring revenue 50% cagr for 5 years, that would make this price not so crazy. Interesting times

Did some spring cleaning MO NEWR PANW HACK LSXMK

WBA and HPQ

Added to FB , TCEHY sold out of UBNT I just found something interesting about tencent. TCEHY owns 48% of Epic games ( Now valued at 15bn) , which launched Fortnite.

+1

FYI, It's probably more efficient to buy tencent through naspers. Depends on the likelihood the South African government expropriates a big chunk of Naspers' value. PIC , a south african SOE responsible for government pensions is a big stakeholder owning around 17% of shares outstanding. There is definitely some political risk here. They are not going to let a cash hoard of 11.2b go out of the door. Their portfolio is impressive. If they spinoff listed shares to existing holders that could add good value. I prefer directly buying TCEHY.

GS and TCEHY

sp500tr for google finance looks like it’s is working again.

it will be interesting what his performance will be for this year. A couple of stocks he is invested in has gone down 50%. Although they have gone 5x on the upside prior to this year.

GS - i know the backdrop of stress tests etc doesn’t look good but it’s at ~1.1 times book. Their lending platform seem to be doing well. I consider this and WFC a good place to wait till the yield curve steepens

one example is if the acquired company is capital intensive ie has low roic , it’s can result in value destruction even if the deal is eps accretive

SNAP - small asymmetric bet. They have 6 quarters to improve engagement or get bought out or go bust. I think a platform with 190 mn dau with a better frequency of use compared to TWTR will survive PANW - They have secular growth ahead of them. 73% gross margins. They will be a platform for network security. Missed the boat for so long.

Hi Joel, Thanks for sharing. Very generous of you given the time and effort it takes to compile such a study. Really appreciate it. The rolling annual out performance statistics gives a great idea of how the manager performed over time. Do these numbers include the effect of dividends? for the SP500 dividends form a good part of the total return, but maybe it harder to include in the study as compiling dividend data for all the funds may be too difficult, timing of cash flow etc make it a hard problem. Thanks again

FB. Thesis is simple , Cash machine having what seems to be a temporary problem. If engagement reduces i might think otherwise, but this price is pretty good for a great efficient company

WBA looks relatively cheap here. I know amazon threat etc, but it’s a consolidated industry so it’s hard to predict outcomes. Retail was easy to disrupt because of its fragmented nature

KJP, I am curious to know why you think Indian OTA's are under earning. How do you think about competition from booking.com in that space? I think indian OTA's also don't have an agency model. They buy inventory and guarantee revenue to the hotels. This is not very capital efficient. Sometimes they sell at a loss to gain market share There are other players like ZO rooms ( Backed by Tiger Global) and OYO rooms that are competing with YTRA and MMYT. Seems like a competitive space in a nascent industry Curious to know your thought process Thanks

PCLN and DIS are looking cheap relative to market. Quality companies at a good price