A lot of assumptions here. You 'know' that blockchain and CBDC are disrupting payment rails? 'Most would suggest that earnings will be a lot less than forecast'? I haven't seen any evidence that either of these things are true.
China's reaction to Ali/We Pay doesn't have a correlation to anything that would happen in NA/Europe. V/MA have no chance of taking over payments in China, and I'd say that western governments have no chance in taking over payments in their respective countries.
And from the Apple release:
'Tap to Pay on iPhone will work with contactless credit and debit cards from leading payment networks, including American Express, Discover, Mastercard, and Visa.'
So Apple wants to displace JPM, Citi, RBC in the payment space and take over that cash stream? Fair enough. It sounds like V/MA is still going to get their fractional cut though.